Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
81 responses to “Election Eve!”
1st
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Segundo
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Rogan endoses Trump!
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He also did a surprise Elon interview.
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Jason the rethug. Despicable in his politics and partially illiterate. What a combination.
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The more desperate the circumstance, the more the trolls dance.
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Baris says that there are grifters who want an election loss to make the grift work on Wednesday.
I have to agree with him on that point. There is a certain group that would benefit from a close Trump loss.
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“Anyone who doesn’t agree with my debased, uninformed, exclusionary, racist, sexist form of politics is a troll.”
-Rethuglicans
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Does a Rogan endorsement move enough voters to get the case out of the Margin of Fraud?
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You’re fortunate Soros pays by the word and not by wit.
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Muh Soros. More deepstate.
Can’t make this shit up. What a moron. There’s a reason why Trump loves the uneducated.
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Trump has coalesced an amazing, diverse number of people around him during his long journey back in the WH. It would be tragic if an empty soul like Harris were to win.
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I think the Rogan endorsement would have had more power had it been done two weeks ago, but of course he had to wait to see if Kamanawannalaya would do his interview. She chickened out of course because it would have been a disaster.
Still, hopefully it moves some votes in PA, GA and NC to start.
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I agree Vic. The Rogan endorsement has come really late. Maybe, he can get listeners tomorrow to go vote.
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I just think that the Kamanawanalaya people delayed and delayed the interview without saying no, so he was unable to endorse
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Despicable in his politics and partially illiterate.”
Says Mr. “Moral Upstanding”
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My guesses for tomorrow:
PRESIDENT:PA T+2; MI T+1; WI H+1; NV T +2; AZ T+5; GA T+3; NC T+4; VA H+5; MN H+3; NH H+2; NM T+1; FL T+8; TX T+6
UNITED STATES SENATE: FL R+7; MT R+10; TX R+4; OH R+3; WI D+2; MI R+1; PA R+2; NV D+1; MD D+10; AZ D+2; VA D+3; NM R+2; MN D+5
I’m guessing that the Domenici name means something in New Mexico.
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Rethuglicans”
That is considered clever and funny over at the DKos daycare for aspiring commies.
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You can’t make thsi sh-t up….
CNN
US intelligence officials make last-ditch effort to sound the alarm over foreign election interference From CNN’s Josh Campbell
In a last-ditch effort to make voters aware of alleged foreign interference in the 2024 election, the US intelligence community issued a statement late Monday warning about global efforts to manipulate US public opinion and the possible violence that could come as a result.
The US intelligence community “has been observing foreign adversaries, particularly Russia, conducting additional influence operations intended to undermine public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections and stoke divisions among Americans,” the FBI, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a joint statement hours before Election Day 2024.
“The [intelligence community] expects these activities will intensify through election day and in the coming weeks, and that foreign influence narratives will focus on swing states,” the warning continued.”
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NH Libertarian Party endored Trump over Oliver.
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NH and WI Libertarians, both. Maybe the MI and PA Libertarians are next.
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BREAKING: Michigan male voter data shows growing GOP advantage: Strong GOP counties now have 46.8% male turnout vs 43.8% in Strong Dem areas – a 3% gap that’s widened since 2020. All county types seeing increased male participation, with GOP areas leading the trend.
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The 11/4 6p NV update was terrible for the Dems. Compared to the previous evening update, 20,115 votes were added, being D+1008.
Margin entering election day
R+42,238
R+3.9%
Total votes 1,089,092
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I will be a poll worker again tomorrow.
Gotta be there at 5:30, so I am signing off for tonight.
Off to bed.
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Kamala tanking in the GA market at Polymarket
68-32
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Sane got the Nv results first.
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Previous Election day voting in NV
2020 R+15,732, R+10.0%
2022 R+47,822, R+22.3%
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R+ even1 vote on Election day will result in a Trump win, and may be enough to push Brown over the finish line. Anything like the numbers above and its a clear win beyond the margin of Democrat fraud.
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At the beginning of all this Ralstonhack said anything over 25k would be really bad for Dems.
Now it is over 43k and he says Dems will win.
Just another cheap partisan hack.
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have to say Megan Kelly’s endorsement of Trump was pretty powerful stuff. I wish all these 50+ year old senior women would listen!!!
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Richard Grennel is speaking at the Grand Rapids, MI. Likely the next Secretary of State.
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It looks like the R’s will have between a 70,000-100,000 vote margin after election day. That would likely be an R+5.1 to R+7.3 margin. The others will have to vote at a rate of D+18 to D+26 to compensate. D+18 means D59-R41, D+26 means D63-R37.
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The net of all of this is it entirely possible the R’s sweep all four congressional seats in addition to the Senate seat and President.
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Trump will lose. Not immediately. But eventually. If not, the nation ends. Nuclear button pressed.
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Paul, you really need to take the meds. We don’t mind your comments that state your dislike of Trump, you are 100% allowed to and we encourage competing ideologies, but nuclear button stuff…no American president, Dem or Republican, is pressing any nuclear button
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I think Trump will eventually succeed to win after it is all over. I just am struggling with how life continues.
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Trump at 60% on Polymarket now.
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Sounds like Ralston is now hedging.
The early voting blog is updated!
GOP lead still very robust, Reid Machine will have to get turnout up a lot in the next few days to catch up. I still think it will be close.
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That Ralston post is full of hopium. Let’s look at the mail over the last 8 days. this is using the PM update for each day:
Mail Dem margin
votes net
Mon 10/28 33632 3807 11.3%
Tue 10/29 34424 3603 10.5%
Wed 10/30 37313 3631 9.7%
Thu 10/31 30839 1915 6.2%
Fri 11/01 26913 2719 10.1%
Sat 11/02 25828 3977 15.4%
Sun 11/03 17037 2049 12.0%
Mon 11/04 20115 1008 5.0%
The number of ballots is trending down and the Dem margin overall is 10.0%
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Let’s try it again.
That Ralston post is full of hopium. Let’s look at the mail over the last 8 days. this is using the PM update for each day:
———— votes_net D_margin
Mon 10/28 33632 3807 11.3%
Tue 10/29 34424 3603 10.5%
Wed 10/30 37313 3631 9.7%
Thu 10/31 30839 1915 6.2%
Fri 11/01 26913 2719 10.1%
Sat 11/02 25828 3977 15.4%
Sun 11/03 17037 2049 12.0%
Mon 11/04 20115 1008 5.0%
The number of ballots is trending down and the Dem margin overall is 10.0%
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Reid Machine”
Zzzzz….
Reid has been dead for years.
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Rick Santorum on Newsmax.
Haven’t seen him in years. 6 years older than Walz, looks 20 years younger.
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The one thing I don’t understand is late night campaign events. 11:30 Oprah is on. And some music. And Kamala isn’t on yet.
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Are you sure Reid is dead? I heard he hangs out with Elvis and DB Cooper.
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Halperinhack want to play it both ways.
On Newsmax he says Dems are not getting the firewall they need in PA.
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I got to stay up for Dixville Knox.
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oh right Paul. I forgot about that. Me too
it’s finally raining in SA after months of nada so I’m enjoying the storm
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Why did they plan Harris’ event so that she speaks when it is almost midnight??????
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President:
PA T+1.2
MI T+1.2
WI T+1.5
NV T+2.2
AZ T+2.2
GA T+2.5
NC T+2.5
VA T+.80
MN H+2
NH H+2
NM H+4
FL T+10
TX T+8
Senate Seats:
FL r+8
MT r+10
TX r+6
OH r+4
WI r+1
MI r+1
PA r+1
NV D+2
MD D+8
AZ r+1
VA r+1
NM r+1
MN D+2
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Jeez. NYC tell us what you really think lol
not only a Trump mega landslide but a 58 seat Senate which hasn’t happened since…well I believe forever but I will double check
do you really think this. Or hope this. What gives you belief that the R and Trump will carry VA
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Trump hasn’t started speaking at his rally in Grand Rapids MI
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1920
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which by the way was a great book about the election of 1920. Five former or future Presidents battling for the White House
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NH libertarian endorsed Trump?
Go to T+1 in NH for me please.
That will be part of “The Vance Effect”® I have spoken about.
Youngkin (maybe, but not proven in a Presidential year) could get VA, but Vance is going for the rest!
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I kind of hope for what MAGA will think is a vote dump in the middle of the night. They might really get mad this time.
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VictrC,
Go BIG or GO Home!
Walt inspired me with the tales about the teachers. Too many stories to tell about such “intelligent” beings like that here in NYC, but I have also seen and heard those who stay quiet within their union work crowd, but let their hair down in “safe” places!
Let’s go!
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Sane_voter is infact nuts.
Even more nuts than Jason the rethug nutsack.
WTF is this place anymore?
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“do you really think this. Or hope this. What gives you belief that the R and Trump will carry VA”
-Thinking is over-rated. Just do it!
I’ve been trying to remain cautious, but I see no enthusiasm in my neck of the NJ woods (around Newark, NJ) compared to 2020 and 2016, and nowhere near like the Obama years for Harris/Walz. Like someone else mentioned, the videos of strong, independent, household-leading females of color makes me think they will either vote Trump in much larger numbers than ever before, or just stay home (and pull a jason).
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And with Youngkin, Sears and Mijares governing VA in a competent manner, I think the Republican duo of Trump-Vance(RFK-Shanahan) (MAGA-MAHA) pull it out.
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Besides, I’ve been wrong before, and can handle it, but I’ve also been correct before, and it’s been G L O R I O U S ! ! !
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3 votes for Trump so far.
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They shouldn’t have killed that damn squirrel !!!!
TRUMP FLIPPED TWO BIDEN VOTERS IN DIXVILLE NOTCH, AND PICKED UP A NEW VOTER TOO!
2020: Biden 5, Trump 0
2024: Trump 3, Harris 3
What a way to kick off Election Day.
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Gov: Ayotte won 5-1
House: Lily Tang lost 4-2
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Dixville Notch, NH
Trump 3
Harris 3
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NYCmike23,
Cole should have covered first base in the 5th inning of game 5!
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Marv,
WTF was he thinking!!!???
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Out of all the mistakes, that was the worst!
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Cheers! See you in 15 hours when Robbie shows up with the Lord Arsehat Early Exit Polls!
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I don’t think they should announce exit polls until all polls close. Too much influence on late voters
I think Florida will tell us a lot. They count fast and get results out quickly. We will see just how much republicans are increasing the margins OR we will see this alleged 50+ women’s bloc that hates Trump and will power Harris to the WH
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Dixville Notch history….
Biden won
Hillary won
In fact, Harris received the fewest votes of a Democrat in the history of Dixville Notch.
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NYCmike23,
The pitcher covering first base is a fundamental play in baseball. It’s one of the reasons pitchers and catchers show up two weeks early for spring training. I’m sure Cole feels terrible about it, but it was a very bad look.
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VictrC,
Given the fact that you’re one of my HHR friends here, I feel I must confess to you that I am a New York Yankee fan….ever since the days of Mickey Mantle.
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Final Nate Silver analysis, and I mean final…..
40,012 simulations Harris won
39,718 simulations Trump won
270 simulations were a tie
Final result….a 269-269 EC tie whereas Trump becomes the 47th President because of the House of Representatives.
Thanks Silver. Thanks for nothing.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
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marv. You are my HHR friend and because of that I will tell you my pure hatred of the Yankees does not carry over to the fans of theirs with as much class as you have!!!
heck, if I had been around in the 50’s I may have been one too, though my grandfather was always a national league guy, hence when my dad was a small kid he likes the braves of aaron and Mathews
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so for all his hoopla and playing the middle to not piss of the left, Silver’s “averages” have Trump winning PA, GA, NC, AZ, NV for…the exact same prediction as I have. Trump wins.
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Who the f is sane_voter? I don’t remember that username but whoever they are, they’re batshit crazy
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in the last six elections, Dixville picked the winner five times, the only time they didn’t was 2016 when they picked Hillary 4-2
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TIPP FINAL POLL
Trump leads 48.6% to 48.3%.
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NT
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