Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
79 responses to “Night shift.”
First. Like usual.
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Just spent 3 hours at a concert. 3 hours with no politics. No messages. Just a reminder to turn the clocks back at 2:00.
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The Hooters put on a great show.
Breast and chicken wings jokes in 3…2…1…
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first it is hard to believe that this one poll would create this much change inthe vetting markets. Polymarket is gaining back most of its loss for trump. Predictit on the other hand is still upside down. Maybe people were taking some profits and the timing of the poll was coincidental.
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I think that the Selzer poll is the only poll that could move markets like that, due to her past track record.
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I saw some folks here post some stuff from Seth kessel. What is his background? I don’t think I came across him the last two elections.
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So, lets put this in perspective. Iowa is further left than Virginia, if we are to believe Selzer and the poll from VA today. RRIIGGGHHHHTTT
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quemala to do 3 rallies in pa on Monday. (Closing day)
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saw the sNL skit. Dude…seriously, how was that not free ad from NBC. Lord, you would think she was the second coming of Jesus, and of course, trashed Trump and his supporters (bringing up the garbage in a not so subtle dig)
This is a woman who couldn’t get 3% in her own primary and dropped out. Who had a 26% rating as a VP 90 days ago. WTF is going on in this country. If she wins, it will honestly be the biggest F U to America ever.
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Ralstonhack:
Rare 6 PM post from SOS doesn’t chamge much, just some mail from Washoe and a handful in rurals. GOP gained a couple hundred, now above 44,500. More later if I am awake later”
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she obviously knows PA is a problem for her, as demonstrated by her skit. Weird that the whole election comes down to PA and she knows it and so does Trump.
the rest is just icing for one or the other PA and Trump wins
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Ralston is wrong, the lead is 45,295
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Hey fuck you bitter!
Kamala 2024
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oh no. Ralston is wrong. Jason and Bitter the dumb duo are right.
trump for prison 2025
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what’s Tina gonna do when Trump inevitably loses?
cry muh election fraud
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interesting. Wonder who the troll from the past is
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victrC
Stay in your lane. All NY sports teams suck like you. I didn’t mention you dude
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you only got that half right Chuckie
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don’t forget to leave your prediction on the election thread
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I sense Tgca but he wouldn’t be a p*ssy with a new handle. He would just spew his nonsense as Tgca.
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FINAL NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 47%
Last poll: Harris+3
Morning Consult | 10/29-31 | N=8,918LV
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TIPP Trump 49-48
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NEW FINAL MICHIGAN poll
🔴 Trump: 45% (=)
🔵 Harris: 45%
🟢 Stein: 2%
🟣 Oliver: 1%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=998L
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FINAL NEVADA poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 46%
🟣 Oliver: 2%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=1,010LV
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FINAL WISCONSIN poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 45%
🟢 Stein: 1%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=1,305LV
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FINAL NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 45%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=1,010LV
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FINAL GEORGIA poll
🔴 Trump: 46% (=)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟣 Oliver: 2%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=1,004LV
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FINAL ARIZONA poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 44%
🟢 Stein: 2%
🟣 Oliver: 1%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=1,025LV
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FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟣 Oliver: 1%
🟢 Stein: 1%
NYT/Siena | 10/29-11/2 | N=1,527LV
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Nate Cohn cautions of a polling miss. Rs not answering phone cite a bigger response bias than 2020 among white Ra.
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”among white Rs.”*
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Trump with a nice lead at Polymarket again for both the national and PA markets.
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Looks like Dumbchuck is back.
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The NC, WI, and MI polls are missing too many voters for this late in the game.
MI 45-45?
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Sorry, feel free to delete the other posts, Bl. Cohn says a bigger non-response bias among white Rs- under estimating trumps strength.
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They are saying that the Georgia poll is a D+1 sample. I don’t think Georgia is D +1.
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The Kanadian Marxist Troll put in an appearance.
Zzzzz….
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Looks like Rcp national pole average will have to go a bit higher for trump.
Tipp goes from tied to plus 1.
Morning consultation goes from quemala +3 to +2.
It’s battleground pole average increased yesterday for trump despite the Alka seltzer fake pole
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All the NY Times poll much more favorable to Trump than their 2020 final polls of same states.
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I would be shocked if NC votes 4 points left of PA. I don’t think that’s gonna happen.
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I thought I read that in ga the ev was r plus 3?
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Dw check out cohens response on those poles. He admits to a very large non response bias involving white Rs.
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And if Siena/NY Times says Trump is up in PA, he is for sure up. Same for Michigan.
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And if Trump is ahead in AZ, MI, and PA, he isn’t losing the election.
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FINAL BATTLEGROUND polls
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+2
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+2
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+1
🟡 ARIZONA: Tie
🟡 PENNSYLVANIA: Tie
🔵 MICHIGAN: Harris+1
Morning Consult
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NYT: “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”
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Ryan Girdusky:
Read through the Selzer crosstabs and… it’s just straight crazy. Here’s Selzer/2020 Exits
Overall: D+3/R+8
Senior Women: D+35/D+6
Senior Men: R+2/R+32
Indies D+7/D+4
Women D+20/D+3
Men: R+14/R+19
Rurals: R+20/R+28
Suberbs: D+23/R+3
No College: R+12/R+17
College: D+30/D+7
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The morning consult state poles do not appear to line up to a quemala p,us 3 Lead.
Guys, I think trump has it with pa, ga, and nc. I also think he gets Wisconsin.
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This is all the Morning Consult Polls
National: Harris+2
AZ: Tied
FL: Trump+5
GA: Trump+2
MI: Harris +1
NC: Trump+2
OH: Trump+9
PA: Tied
TX: Trump+7
WI: Trump+1
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Pretty sure the Alka seltzer pole was absolutely rigged and part of the psyops. Is she or Doltz even heading there. I encourage them to do so. lol.
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Morning Consult Senate Polls
AZ: D+8
FL: R+3
MD: D+8
MI: D+8
OH: R+1
PA: D+3
TX: R+3
WI: D+2
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David Chapman indicates that pollin has been all over the place. Two other times were 2012 and 1980.
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Quemala canceled a mi appearance to be on snl.
focus now appears to be on Pa.
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Harris has lost Morning Consult! Wow. I thought they would be digging in to the end!
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Ralston out with more ifs and buts and what ifs. But would rather be the GOP’s position.
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The hardest thing about this election season is not the outcome. I believe Trump will win but can handle a Harris victory since I have no children and all my family is dead except for a niece.
Rather, for me, is to see just how powerless we are in the face of corruption, globalists and our own country. This nation has rotted from the inside out and my generation and my parents’ generation did not protect this generation and our future generations from the corruption in the media, government and academia. What we are witnessing in all the manipulation is the noonday devil showing how he exercises his power.
It is sad to witness.
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General election poll – Pennsylvania
🔵 Harris 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%
Last poll – 🟡 Tie
Muhlenberg #B – LV – 10/30
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FINAL NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 49% (=)
🔴 Trump: 49%
🟡 Independents: Trump+6
🟡 Men: Trump+13
🟡 Women: Harris+12
Emerson | 10/30-11/2 | N=1,000LV
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Emerson
NATIONAL POLL
What do you think is the most important issue facing the United States?
40% economy
17% immigration
16% threats to democracy
7% abortion access
5% healthcare
4% crime
3% housing affordability
3% education
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https://nypost.com/2024/11/02/us-news/nj-woman-rips-off-top-votes-in-bra-after-being-told-to-ditch-maga-gear/
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Well it looks like ny times still finds trump winning 280 to 258.
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They cannot pole nc historically and their Nv # does not reconcile with ev trends.
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nbc national tied at 49.
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NY Times does not follow Ralston apparently,
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i am way behind loading the polls into the aggregator but hope to be caught up some this afternoon
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I believe that NC EV ended yesterday afternoon and from what I gather the registered R’s lead is about 42K whereas in 2020 the D’s led EV by about the same (40K) as I recall…
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
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Trump disclosed to his rally crowd yesterday that he’s leading in all 7 swing states and had just been informed he’s ahead in NJ.
If he takes Jersey I’ll eat Chris Christie’s weight in tofu.
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@Peoples_Pundit
How many times did
@Mark_R_Mitchell
and I all last week say that Republicans were no longer talking to pollsters? But that’s not what Mr. NYT was saying. Now he drops polls giving Harris supporters hope with the caveat that he think he’s wrong because Mark and I were right. Bro
·
11.3K Views
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John,
The NC early vote in 2020 was D+250,000 out of 4.6M votes. That is D+5.6. Huge R overperformance in 2024 vs 2020.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html
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Basically what all these polls say if you take them in the aggregate is that Trump will win unless he is underperforming the polls, which didn’t happen in 2016 and 2020, although Rs did underperform the polls in 2022.
Yahoo has an article saying Kamala doesn’t need as big a lead in the national polls to translate into an EC win because Trump will do better in populous states like CA, NY and FL than he did against Biden, so Kamala in essence is “wasting” fewer votes.
I actually agree with this analysis. I think +_2 is the dividing point.
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Tony Fabrizio of the Trump campaign sent out this memo that calls the Selzer an outlier and completely debunks the poll…
https://cdn.nucleusfiles.com/a4/a4f946f9-4e27-4bae-8e32-e77638040f06/11.2-djt-iowa-poll.pdf?_nlid=S2fMS533ZU&_nhids=l6qztWxJ
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Regarding NC, a good majority of the unaffiliated voters in NC are lean GOP. Many are native NCarolinians with a strong ancestral tie to our beloved state. I became a Republican back in 1980 because of Reagan and was the first GOPer in my family.
However, although the other members of my family were Dems, they didnt vote that way usually. They only voted for conservative Dems, which we had many in the 70’s and 80’s but who frankly dont exist anymore. Those Dems, who remember what the GOP did to our grandparents and great-grandparents, are now registered either GOP or independent.
Trump will win NC by at least 2%.
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Full field nbc national pole is trump plus 1.
it’s rv.
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FINAL NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 50.5% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 49.5%
ActiVote | 10/27-11/2 | N=1,000LV
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I think this is 3 polls out today with Trump winning Nationally.
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The Economist forecast simulations have now switched drastically in the last 24 hours…
Trump 51% (+3)
Harris 49% (-3)
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
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NT while DW prepares his polling post.
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There was also Trump movement in the 538 Simulations as well….
Trump 53% (+2)
Harris 47% (-2)
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
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