Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
99 responses to “Final WISCONSIN poll by Rasmussen”
Firts
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See some good news.
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Does anyone know what Rasmussen’s final Wisconsin poll was in 2020?
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Seth Keshel:
Just so EVERYONE knows ahead of time, Iowa was R+1 in 2020 when Trump won it by 8 points. The GOP had a lead of 20,590 registrations.
The FINAL voter registration numbers just dropped (I will link in comments) and the GOP has a lead of 173,302 registrations, putting Iowa at R+10.3%.
That means Trump should be a lock to carry Iowa by substantially more than 8 points, and WI has never been further than 9.8 points from IA in any direction since before 1960.
Bookmark this post just in case the final Selzer poll shows an unexpectedly close race in Iowa (as rumored) to conceal Wisconsin.
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I bet Selzer drops a Trump +4 or 5.
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DW, you asked a out the GA turnout at the end of the last thread; the top five improvements were all in deep Red counties, the bottom five ie biggest drops were all in the Black Belt.
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RFK, Jr. is still a left wing loon. Supporting Trump does not change that. I wouldn’t let him be a receptionist at a doctor’s office. That said, if he helps Trump win I can live with it.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/11/01/nolte-jonah-goldberg-says-trump-made-him-lie-about-trump-wanting-liz-cheney-executed/
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I checked on Rasmussen’s webpage and couldnt find a final 2020 for Wisconsin poll. However, their final national poll was Biden 48/Trump 47. So a 3+ Trump lead now is at least an indication of better things this election.
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Not a betting man but my guess is that Predictit is taking cues from the Marist polls released earlier this am. It was the #1 story on The Hill, Nate Silver mentioned them, and Democratic hacks on Fox mentioned them.
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I dont buy any Harris surge. I also still don’t believe she will win. All the signs point to her losing. I guess we will see on Tuesday. We will have to endure a weekend of the left and media telling us she’s running away with the election.
I don’t buy it. I do hope Trump takes one of the rust belts. I really wish he would have pushed harder in NE-2
AZ, GA and NC will finish in Trump’s column. Beginning to think NV will as well. If he loses 270-268 I think the country is in for a horrendous four years. If the R’s retain the House and regain the Senate, every time they don’t rubber stamp one of her policies they will be labelled racists sexist garbage
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Rasmussen’s last 2020 poll of WI was Sept. 1-2 with Biden up 51-43.
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thanks, Jeff G.
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@NolteNC
51 intelligence experts say Trump wants to shoot Liz Cheney in the face.
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All Trump did was suggest Liz take a hunting trip with her father. How is that akin to calling for…….oh, wait.
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They are reaching for anything to make Americans forget they called half of them garbage .There is no way to hear or read that comment without knowing he meant, if you are so excited to go to war, go yourself and pick up a weapon.
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Ralston Purina never mentioned that R and Ds were nearly even in Nv party registration.
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PA Supremes affirm that ballots without the correct postmark CANNOT be counted. Two big hits for Marc Elias et al.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852493497015669030
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At Predictit right now Trump is at 53% and Kamala at 55%.
This is because they are separate markets.
Seems like the Kamala market is being driven by a lot of bets YES while Trump’s market is fairly stable only down 2 pts today.”
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The Predictit market collape for Trump is coming down only to this…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14031699/Pennsylvania-Supreme-Court-provisional-ballots-2024-election.html?ico=article_preview_xp_mobile
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That is big.
If the Dems are short they won’t be able to come up with a bunch of non-postmarked ballots.
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Apparently, on social media, there are lots of psy ops going on talking about a “Harris surge,” propelled by the woman vote.
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There are 9000 such ballots to date. They are not all for Harris. It will only be important if it is essentially tied.
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Yup those ops are to,save the down ballot, Jan. She is not “surging.”
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“More recently, New York University law professor Richard Pildes estimated that the case could affect between 400 and 4,000 ballots in the state – though his “back-of-the-napkin” math focused solely on naked ballots, and not others sent with incomplete information.”
The provisional ballot issue is not as important as the postmark issue.
The provisional ballots are real votes, where voters made mistakes like forgetting the inner envelope. It’s not fraud. By law they shouldn’t count but the courts don’t agree.
Allowing non-postmarked ballots opens the door to really big fraud.
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There are reports that Mark Cuban has been pulled from the Quemala campaign.
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Gender gap? What in the hell are they talking about?
2016 Hillary 51-39
2018 58-40
2020 55-44
And today it is 54-44?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
What the hell are they talking about?
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https://100percentfedup.com/breaking-reports-claim-mark-cuban-has-been-fired/?utm_source=PTN&utm_medium=mixed&utm_campaign=PTN
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The Dems added a few more votes when Washoe mail was updated, but Rs still lead by 44,400, or 4.6 percent. The GOP lead has been slowly growing, but as it has slowed, its percentage lead has been cut by about a point from its apex.”
Ralstonhack posted his report.
Followed by a lot of mumbo jumbo on how the Dems could still win.
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If you are comparing am up to am update, the lead expanded. This would be an apples to apples comparison.
Moroever, Nate has failed to mention that the party ID in NV is equal.
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Not Nate, Ralsron Purina.
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The GOP lead has been slowly growing, but as it has slowed, its percentage lead has been cut by about a point from its apex.”
Zzzzzz….
The R lead is growing in absolute numbers and of course the number of ballots is finite (hopefully) so the drop in percentage is only significant if it cuts into the absolute numbers.
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All of that in Nevada is great. I feel very good about Arizona and Georgia, still a bit worried about NC, but then again, every election I worry about it, and they come out Red. BUT…
because of NE-2, we need to carry a rust belt state, and I have a lot of trepidation, especially given fraud, and the postmark think
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
HALPERIN: I spoke to 1 Democratic and 2 Republican sources. Based on some data, they would be either surprised or shocked at this point if Harris won Wisconsin.
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1,467 Views
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Florida R Ev ballot,lead is nearly 1,000,000
Rds says that federsl,monitors cannot be present in polling places. They have no authority.
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FWIW, my source in WI thinks Trump will take the state by 3. Granted, he is a libertarian party apparatchik who now leans towards Trump, but at least he is someone on the ground there who knows the state’s politics very well.
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“Rds says that federsl,monitors cannot be present in polling places. They have no authority.”
As a fan of federalism, I agree. But since prevailing legal theory has it that the 14th amendment allows a back door for federal oversight and tinkering with elections, would that hold up to a challenge?
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Ok, can I just dream for a minute. If Trump does win, we retain house and get the Senate that would be a good night for the country. Let’s hope we can slow down the nanny state, just for a bit.
With that said, can you imagine how ugly its going to be in the streets of Liberal cities, at universities, etc
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Shem_Infinite
I’m studying science based hypertrophy training and experimental cow steroids so that I can hopefully build up enough strength to survive all the laughing I am going to do when President Trump fires Jack Smith during his inaugural address.
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Halperin, along with several other Republican pundits, are saying they would be shocked if Harris won WI. Tonight’s Trump rally in Milwaukee, WI (where the GOP held their 2024 convention) is packed with an overflow. It’s looking real good for Trump/Vance in that state!
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This is Ralton’s version of “PANIC!”
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1852506670884089924
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Ralston translated.
Clark county underperforming. Washoe county (Reno/sparks) exceeding R turnout. Clark and Washoe are a draw.
Rurals going wild.
I assure you that the Rs are not crossing over to vote for Quemala.
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On the other hand, I am worried about Jan if Trump loses.
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Jan will be fine. She’s an adult, and lived through Obama and Biden. She’ll survive . Just like we will. Just in a country that is on the fast track to marxism and socialism
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People are saying “if he took a bullet for me I’ll stay in line for him.” There are still lines in Bucks County, PA. They intentionally understaffed polling sites after they were ordered by the court to reopen. Bucks is one of the counties Scott Pressler helped flip from D to R with tens of thousands of new registrations.
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Wawa is now donating coffee. Other conservative organizations are sending food.
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Moonbats on X saying people registered R just to qualify for Musk lottery but are voting Harris.
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Wawa is now donating coffee.”
Damm…
I wish I was there. That coffee from beans excreted from Borneo monkeys is supposed to be delicious.
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Democrats would be doing this even if Trump were not the nominee. What other nominee would inspire the loyalty that those people are showing by staying in line? Hold the line!
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“I DO NOT want you to VOTE for me—If you wanna see me go to Washington, you better VOTE for Donald Trump!” – RFK Jr., today in Michigan
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The coffee was sent by Kevin Posobiec, not donated by Wawa.
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The Democratic Muslim mayor in Hamtramck (Pole town when I was younger) in Dearborn MI endorsed Trump tonight. This past weekend the Dem Mayor of Dearborn Heights endorsed him too. Big for DJT in urban Detroit area. This is the most populated Muslim area in the US.
Next time I go to Detroit I am making a point to grab some Mediterranean food in one of the family owned great restaurants in Dearborn.
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Add her to the list…Young Turks Anna Kasparian is voting for Trump…
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https://www.wawa.com/menu/coffee
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@OutFrontCNN — The Harris campaign is targeting Jews in PA and Arabs in Michigan with entirely different messages on Gaza. PA ads highlight her support for Israel’s “ability to defend itself,” while Michigan ads say “she will not be silent” on Gaza
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this is insane. This is an ad the Dems are running which states after Trump is elected he does. Vance opens concentration camps and bans all free speech and the constitution. Blah blah blah. It’s insane the depth they will sink to
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I recommend watching it. I can’t get it to embed
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I don’t see the Borneo Monkey Excreted Coffee.
I think you have to be an Wahwah Elite Club Member like Bitter to order it.
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with the Muslim endorsements in MI that has to tip him over the edge and hopefully Rodger’s
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But doesn’t that alienate some Jewish voters? It may a wash.
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Zzzzzzzz If Jason ever went to a Wawa (although he lied and said he did until he admitted there were none near him) he would be forced to admit it is just a really good convenience store for everybody. I also don’t drink coffee but he knows that. At the Wawa across from Bryn Mawr Hospital, he would see surgeons, nurses, janitors, plumbers, police officers, etc ordering food.
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Jews it would alienate are already voting Harris. And I don’t know how big the Jewish population is in Michigan
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I have been to Wahwah because contrary to Bitter I actually venture more than 10 miles from my house.
Besides, Bitter’s faux airs of superiority will end soon. I have really bad news for him.
Wahwah is venturing into deplorable areas!
“Wawa plans to open more central Pennsylvania stores in Middletown, York, Dover, Hanover and Enola by the end of 2024.Sep 18, 2024″
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The large majority of Muslims in Detroit are extremely loyal to the US and not pro Hamas, Hezbollah at all or anti Jew and just want peace. Many families that settled in the Detroit area escaped from Iran, Lebanon, Iraq in the seventies and early eighties. Have family members that fled to UAE as well.
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Bitter will be crushed.
“Hanover’s first Wawa is among six set to open later this year, according to the convenience store company.
The announcement came during an event at the state capital in Harrisburg, where Wawa was celebrating its 60th year in retail on April 17, 2024.
The day also marked the beginning of construction of the company’s first store in central Pennsylvania, as construction began on a Wawa in Middletown on Harrisburg Pike.
Six stores are set to open this year, including the Hanover location in Penn Township, one in Middletown, one in West Manchester Township at the intersection of Route 116 and Route 30, one in Dover Township, one in Williamsport, and one in Enola.
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I saw that…it will backfire big time.
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I see I got Wawa trending on HHR.
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I am more of a Sheetz person when in PA.
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I will go to Wahwah on special occasions hoping to catch sight of a celebrity.
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Trump back to 59-41 on Polymarket.
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No one ever answered up when I asked last week if Sheetz had sandwiches that were as good as WaWa. We had a Sheetz in Dahlgren, VA, when I was stationed there, right on 301 before the bridge to Maryland. I used to get gas and beer there, but I don’t recall what else they had.
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Jeff, where did you see that about Kasparian? I know that she has been highly critical of the far left since she was assaulted by those homeless men, but didn’t think she would cross that Rubicon. Cenk will have to fire her off TYT, but she has an ownership stake, so that’s going to get real messy.
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My daughter goes to Sheetz practically every night after band practice. She loves the food.
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Modern Wisdom podcast. She is an independent now and is she is more aligned with Trump than Harris now.
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Cenk has been defending Trump publicly recently… it’s wild.
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POLITICO
Can Stacey Abrams still deliver Georgia?”
“Still”?
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The Woke Commie Dems are losing so many classic liberals. Highlighted by Jordan Peterson, Russell Brand, Naomi Wolf, Tulsi, Ana, Sanchez, RFK, Musk and the list grows. The party has turned into a demonic death cult. Killing babies up to 9 months, promoting genital mutilation in minors.
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LOL
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She loves the food.”
I don’t.
But I am looking forward to the lobster rolls and lamb curry at WahWahs.
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But he is a nut job … and hates Trump at times too. Ana is definitely changing her world view.
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I think the Rs did well getting rid of the Cheneys and bringing tulsi, Kennedy, and others into the party.
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The video of Cenk and Ana having a meltdown when Trump beat Hillary is hilarious.
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Jeffp. What about the modern wisdom podcast? The ex actually works for him/podcast guy
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Elon: Would be great to have Ron Paul as part of the Department of Government Efficiency!
Ron Paul: I’d be happy to talk with you about it, Elon.
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Wow…I watch it or clips on YouTube every once in a while. I watch other hosts more frequently…I like the long form podcast format with certain guests I find interesting.
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Rashida Tlaib declines to endorse Harris
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Yeah everyone wants to know what a 90 year racist American hating terrorist lover like Ron Paul has to say.
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Jason, are you saying you don’t like Ron Paul?
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Unfortunately he reproduced himself and we have Rand Paul.
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Updated Nevada numbers just released minutes ago….GOP extended their lead to 49K. Ralston has just about thrown in the towel for the D’s there.
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Then why lie about Wasa to pretend it is some elitist store? It is not.
Jason hides among the Amish but says I am afraid to go anywhere. Zzzzzzz
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Lies.
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Kennedy is a far left loon.
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TIPP Deadlocked at 48.
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NT
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Dw/others, is this true?
https://oregoncatalyst.com/81471-turnout-shocker-gop-5-dems.html
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Polymarket swing states
PA 56-44 Trump
WI 51-49 Harris
AZ 76-25 Trump
NV 64-37 Trump
GA 72-29 Trump
MI 58-42 Harris
NC 68-31 Trump
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