According to Cygnal. New Jersey was +16 for Biden in 2020.
NEW JERSEY poll
🔵 Harris: 52% (+12)
🔴 Trump: 40%
Cygnal 10/23-10/24; 600LV
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
142 responses to “Trump down 12 in New Jersey”
First!
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I think this news story hurt Trump’s number in NJ.
“Someone came forward who went to high school with Trump 60 years ago with a new sexual charge. He said he lived next door to the Lynn family. Their daughter Amanda played in the band with Trump. He said he overheard Trump say he wanted to pluck Amanda Lynn.”
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I listened to the CNN interview with James Carville earlier on CNN that basically doubled down on his prediction that Harris will win. He said that polling that will come Sunday and then follow with Monday and Tuesday that will show with a Harris with a lead. He predicted this.
And CNN believed it was gospel.
Am I missing something. Carville predicted the outcome in 1992 and 1996, but then he loss in 2000 and 2004, only to rebound in 2008 and 2012, but then again to lose in 2016 but to win again in 2020. This guy is 5 for 8 for the last election cycles. Yeah baby, even the bakery in Ohio has a better record. Or the squirrel that ate too many nuts….yikes.
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Today was the lowest White vote % in GA early voting since I started tracking it daily. All other groups were higher than typical for 2024, especially Hispanics and Asians. The overall number of voters today was slightly lower than last Saturday.
GA early + mail 10/26
White 56.1%
Black 26.2%
Other 17.7%
GA 2024 early + mail total
White 59.6%
Black 26.0%
Other 14.4%
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Ok I have the game on while I do some work.
The Brooklyn Dodgers are ahead of the New York Yankees 4-1.
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Was tied 1 all a short while ago, but Mookie got on 1st, and Hernandez smacked it out for a 3-1 lead. Then Freeman came up back to back and homered a solo shot. Dramatic bottom of the 3rd, to say the least!
Freeman’s bat was rather cold the entire postseason, so it’s nice to see him suddenly catch fire and roll with it.
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A little humor..
https://x.com/Liberacrat/status/1850244708347338807/photo/1
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The Muslim mayor of Dearborn endorsed trump today, as did several other Muslims on stage.”
Not quite.
Dearborn Heights is different from Dearborn.
But it is still in the Detroit area and still significant with a population of 60k.
Dearborn itself has 100k.
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Harry Enten, CNN
“Donald Trump winning the popular vote could absolutely happen. You might as well wrap your minds around it now, folks, if you don’t like Donald Trump,” he said.
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40% chance at Polymarket, nothing to scoff at.
Nothing has happened since I put the game on.
Still 4-1. I am not going to say it is boring, but it is boring.
I have seen 4 Kamala ads, 3 Trump ads, 1 Casey ad, one McCormick ad. The Kamala ads have an older lady saying Trump will cut Social Security. Trump’s ads say Kamala is paying for transgender surgeries for inmates.
The Casey ad says McCormick has his own plane and lived 15 years in Connecticut.
The McCormick ad says Casey is a Biden clone.
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Another Trump ad.
Really good.
Black radio hosts slamming the transgender surgeries or inmates and men in girl’s sports.
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538 now has Trump winning PA. They have been resisting showing Trump ahead in the EC but finally capitulating
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
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ok long day, finally home. Jason, I think I saw something on the last thread that I hope was a joke post…of course I can’t remember now what it was, but ill go check.
Had to drive up to austin for little ones two soccer games, and back, and get this…saw some Trump signs…IN AUSTIN.
Weird. Like Walz. 😉
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So Trump + Rogan = 10M views in 12 hours
Kamala + Beyonce = 500,000 views in 12 hours
ouch.
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If this was the post it is not a joke.
jasonyupanqui47
October 26, 2024 at 3:46 pm
New Kamala ad says Trump will put Asians back in internment camps.
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LOL that was it, and I can’t not believe she said that. It;s incomprehensible and its slander.
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She is appearing more and more maniac and less and less presidential.
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If she loses, this will be viewed as a monumental collapse from where she was on Labor day BUT, was she really ever that far in front, or was that just media hype and hope, trying to indoctrinate the people into voting for her because of this false sense of inevitability?
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less and less presidential.”
Impossible.
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was she really ever that far in front, or was that just media hype and hope”
I think she compared favorably to Biden and she brought back in some people who had given up on Biden.
But once people were reminded on why they didn’t like her 4 years ago for President she lost luster so to speak.
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Ohtani messed up his left shoulder on a stolen base attempt. It happened five minutes after I turned on the World Series for the first time. Coincidence?
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Typical Harris voters. Who are these people? Who yells at a 2 year old baby like that?? WTF
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YouTube apparently is suppressing the Rogan Trump interview. It was never on the trending list and still isn’t. Currently at 23M views. F Google.
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Whay an ending! A potential game winning grand slam nabbed right at the fence!
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I did not get the yelling at the dad and little baby part. I know a lot of folks felt scammed that beyond a dunce didn’t perform. This is the 2nd time that quemala promised that she was going to perform.
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word is the girl was a paid demonstrator and was yelling some crap at the baby because the Dad brought her.
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cant even find the rogan trump interview on yahoo anywhere. Bet it would be on top if it were kamala. They truly are like the old Soviets
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Emerson
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 51% (+2)
Harris 49%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 50% (+1)
Harris 49%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 50% (+2)
Harris 48%
LV, 10/21-22
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🇺🇲 National Poll: ABC News/Ipsos
🟦 Harris: 51% (+4)
🟥 Trump: 47%
Last poll (10/8) – 🔵 Harris +2
——
Crosstabs
* Women: Harris 56-42% * Independents: Harris 48-47% * 7 Battleground States: Harris 50-47%
* Hispanic: Harris 64-34%
* Ages 65+: Trump 51-46%
* No college: Trump 54-43%
* Suburban women: Harris 59-40%
* White men college: Harris 50-46%
* White women college: Harris 61-38%
* Black women: Harris 93-5%
——
abcnews.go.com/Politics/harri…
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Montana 2024 Senate Election Poll:
🔴Tim Sheehy 50.6% {48.4%} 42.4%
🔵Jon Tester 48.1% {46.4%} 44.0%
Oct 23-25 {Aug 5-6} [Feb 26-Mar 2] (Oct 1-4)
1,000 likely voters
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harlie Kirk
@charliekirk11
Sundar Pichai called Trump to tell him that his working the fry machine at McDonald’s was the most searched item on the internet. Jeff Bezos just intervened and forced the Washington Post to forgo endorsing a political candidate for POTUS for the first time since 1988. Mark Zuckerberg called Trump bada** for rising to his feet after getting shot and shouting fight, fight, fight! They’re either all trying to keep up with Elon Musk or they’re trying to get ahead of something they see coming.
·
1M Views
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I guess they leaked the poll to Carville
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Wait, that ABC poll is old.
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Was posted on RCP several days ago
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You knew a bail out pole was coming. Toss as they are historically the worst national polling company. No way has she “improved” since 10/8. Everyone has said that last two weeks were especially bad.
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Activote national pole is now tied.
Just noting, though Dw has questioned how they pole.
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Here is Michael’s summary on nevada. Today will have light numbers and only Washoe and Clark counties are even open.
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It is abou a 30,000 r ballot lead in nevada. Clark did not post, however, I suspect that in Clark, she is not getting the numbers she needs. Washie may be breaking slightly for trump and rurals are doing well.
Washoe was always split or pick ‘em. Reno/Sparks, however, has trended more R. Lots of us transplants/2nd home owners.
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In any case that poll was already in the RCP average
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
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Nv has also the highest state unemployment and suffers from high inflation.
Definitely winnable.
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There are reports that demented wants to campaign with Quemala, who has refused to date. I believe there are tensions between the two camps.
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Nice catch Jason, about rcp/abc.
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Rcp average is now Trump 0.2 (vs 0.1).
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“Quemala, who has refused to date”
ssq wants to know who is trying to date her?
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Ralston hack will be trying to put lipstick on the pig later on…
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Warren Buffet won’t endorse Kamala.
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Lol, cbs partial summary of the Rogan podcast w/ trump:
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The podcasts that trump has done were at the request of his youngest son. He would be foolish to try not to get some yute vote (gen z perhaps) and white male yutes.
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As far as crude language, hasn’t Doltz used crude language as well as quemala yesterday at the bar with the Michigan Governor.
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Trump called quemala the “taxing queen.”
This sounds “racist.”
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Good advice.
“Caution to R’s. Similar things happened in 2022 Senate race, only for day of drop box numbers to put the D over the edge. The corrupt culinary union machine is alive and well. And Ralston will do all in his power to make sure they know exactly what they have to do”
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I heard snippets of the broadcast.
Rogan asked about an example of voter fraud in 2020. Trump said what about 51 intelligence officials stating the laptop was Russian disinformation and the MSM and social media censoring the story. I lost by 40k votes (he erroneously said 22k) across 3 states, just that would probably have made the difference.
It was a good answer, nothing about Dominion voting machines.
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Rogan said “that is a good example”
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Angling for a pardon?
“I have heard those terms hurled at me by some political leaders in the city, using terms like Hitler and fascist,” the mayor said.
“My answer is no, I know what Hitler has done and I know what a fascist regime looks like,” Adams said when asked if he sees Trump as a fascist as Kamala Harris, Trump’s one-time chief of staff John Kelly and others do.
Adams called for the temperature to be turned down in the country’s political discourse and said Trump should be permitted to rally in Manhattan as a matter of free speech.
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Damm….beaten at the buzzer.
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But my source was Instapundit, not Chief Nerd.
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If you play it, it has Adam’s full remarks.
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Michelle Obama:
Americans who don’t vote for Kamala are racist and sexist.
Brit Hume:
Poor Michelle. Poor Michele. America is always disappointing her.
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Quemala is not happy today. This on top of Doltz indicating mass amnesty for the illegals they transported across our border
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Wake up, lazy bastards.
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Yutes?
Last time I heard that was from Joe Pesci in My Cousin Vinny…..”two yutes”
Fred Gwynne….”What a yute?”
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“I think we are at 40% of final vote in Nevada. Historical-the 1st and 2nd week of early voting (the weeks end on Friday) are usually close in numbers. The mailing of ballots start earlier then in person voting and usually next Thursday/Friday sees a bit of rush to vote in person. So far this is a stunning for the GOP.
I wish we had a little more of a breakdown of data. Per NBC I can tell that the voters to date are much older then in 2020 as younger voters have cast ballots are lower. The indie vote is down and that category of registrations tend to be younger in age. This is why I have discounting the idea that democrats have been hiding out as independent voters–surely some have but if you don’t register in a party statistical speaking you just vote less then those that do. Yes Clark county is lagging in turnout % wise relative to other counties. Guess what County the largest Hispanic, AA, Asian and other minority communities in Nevada? It appears that like in my home county younger and minority voters are lagging in turning out in Nevada.”
Comment by our old poster rdelbov at RHH
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Fred Gwynne….”What a yute?”
Good movie, everyone was really well cast, Marisa Tomei certainly deserved the Oscar.
Fred died shortly after than movie was released of pancreatic cancer.
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Nazis feel left out….
MAGA summarized: White trash, Rich folks who care more about paying 1% less in taxes than the future of the country, Latinos with a machismo complex and their tattooed women, flat-earthers and anti-vaxxers, Dominionists, women who hate themselves”
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Updated election forcasts…
The Economist 55-45% Trump
538 54-45% Trump (actually 55-45% if you count .5 upward)
The Hill 53-47% Trump
All three forecasts bumped Trump up 1 in the past 24 hours.
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Frank Luntz (who I don’t really like) just chimed in and said that Harris ‘lost the election during her interview with CNN on Wednesday’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14007777/frank-luntz-kamala-harris-lost-presidential-election-2024.html
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I was up hours ago. GFY
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According to the NY Post over 10K camped out overnight outside Madison Square Garden for Trump’s rally later today.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/27/us-news/nyc-trump-supporters-camping-overnight-outside-msg-in-anticipation-of-mega-maga-rally/
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Mccarthys landlord is funny. Maybe just maybe the election was never close since 1/2024.
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Once again, Vance destroys fake flapper. I don’t know why they are wasting time going on cn and n
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/watch-jd-vance-leaves-angry-jake-tapper-stunned/
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Trump to fire stoner in two seconds. One second too long.
I wonder what the reaction will be among fhe “concerned” rinos.
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Michael gave an ugly speech last night. I didn’t think it could ever top “all of this for that damn flag”.
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Maybe Vance knows you need more than Jan to win an election.
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Quemala hit the sauce a bit early:
“My internal polling is my instinct. I let the campaign people deal with all that other stuff. I am responding to what I’m seeing.”
·
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who said this Jason?
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It seems like not having exterior bathrooms available for expected large crowds would violate some public health law.
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having 10K people and no portapoties is intentional. you can rest assured of that.
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Tina- we all need to cut Michelle some slack. The road to recovery from testicular cancer can be long and arduous.
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Gwen Walz says Tampon Tim’s chronic lying — like when he lied about being in war and lied about being in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square massacre — is because he’s “used to putting things in terms for people to understand.”
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Fat F–k Christie on TV selling out again.
Asked if he could still vote for Harris he said “yes, but she has to close the deal with me”.
That is an exact quote.
Elevates the words slimy scumbag to a whole new level.
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who said this Jason?”
A random moonbat comment on Twitter.
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Fat F–k Christie translated:
“Offer me a cabinet position and I will endorse you”
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LOL
“Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime measure on California’s Nov. 5 ballot that would reverse some progressive criminal justice reforms voters approved a decade ago.
“I’ve not voted yet and I’ve actually not read it yet,” Harris told reporters
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I would put the odds she would vote for that Proposition about the same as she will vote for Trump.
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That was one of the only props I voted for.
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Not Babylon Bee
“A Kamala Harris-affiliated group is running an ad featuring a young man masturbating while watching porn on his phone. The ad, part of a $2.5 million ad buy in seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada — by Progress Action Fund and Defend the Vote, is titled ‘Republicans Rubbing You the Wrong Way.’
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thats can’t be serious
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Trump: the world is using America as its garbage can.
MSM: Trump says America is a garbage can.
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VictrC
October 27, 2024 at 1:06 pm
thats can’t be serious”
What was the bet?
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Vic, it’s embedded here:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14001939/Democrat-pro-porn-ad-republican-ban.html
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Casey ad:
“I am an independent”
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I should have offered a bet.
Vic would have gone for it.
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https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-van-jones-david-axelrod-1975504
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The Woke Commie Dems and their insane agenda must be crushed on Election Day. Then crushed again in 2026, 2028, 2030, 2032 until their destructive globalist plan for this nation ends up in dust bin of history.
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Trump announces New Mexico rally- Thursday.
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Offer him a twinky…..that should close the deal.
”Fat F–k Christie on TV selling out again.
Asked if he could still vote for Harris he said “yes, but she has to close the deal with me”.
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Twinkie
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Christie is an absolute POS. nothing conservative about him. He was good for New Jersey in so much as he wasn’t a Dem. That is literally about it. At this point he should just switch party affiliation, but then he loses his chance to make donut money with Lib organizations
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I am beginning to think IF Trump wins PA he might drag McCormick in with him. McCormick seems to have done a good job appealing to both Trump’s base AND independents, so I don’t think there will be much ticket splitting.
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Calling Trump and his supporters at MSG Hitler and Nazi is one of the most disgusting things I have ever heard. It is an abomination. It is disrespectful to the Jewish people and many brave people and soldiers who gave their lives to defeat Hitler. These wackos would not last five minutes on the battlefield, concentration camp, or prison.
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JD Vance made Jake Tapper look like an absolute fool today. Not to mention other MSM shows he participated in this AM. It was glorious. That guy is quick on his feet and doesn’t waste words in his response to these hosts stupidity. He is 10X better than Pence as a communicator.
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In my “optimistic” election predictions I listed McCormick as winning by a narrow margin, as he seems to be slowly closing the gap between him and his opponent. All predictions, however, depend upon the level of dem fraud committed – something which remains concerning to me.
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Worse than that, you have the woman who wants to be the next President of the United States openly and repeatedly comparing this to nazi rallies in 1939. As well as Hillary Clinton. This is just not acceptable. So is every Knicks and Rangers game Nazi rallies? Concernts? What separates this speech, just because they don’t agree with their political opponent
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“ JD Vance made Jake Tapper look like an absolute fool today.”
I agree JeffP. Vance has been perfecting his responses to a media hell-bent on destroying the Trump/Vance candidacy. I think media propagandists, like Tapper, get flustered having to respond to such negative blow-back publicly thrown back to them.
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Christie is an absolute POS. nothing conservative about him.”
That is not even the issue, how conservative he is.
He is just a cheap opportunist has been fraud who goes on Sunday shows to attack Trump knowing full well his chances of being invited if he was a Trump supporter are less than a fart in a hurricane.
An execrable excuse for a human being.
I guess at least we can take comfort that he couldn’t get elected as dog catcher running as a Republican
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ll predictions, however, depend upon the level of dem fraud committed – something which remains concerning to me.”
That is why i said IF..
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Lots of Nazis…
https://x.com/RSBNetwork/status/1850572370366369823?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1850572370366369823%7Ctwgr%5Edcbd6977855db48c7a2378d33da9eff2fda49900%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fnick-arama%2F2024%2F10%2F27%2Fmassive-crowd-madison-square-garden-n2181137
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Jan – I am curious about whether you ever go to anything other than Trump cheerleading sites.
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Nj day 1 turnout was nearly evenly split between Ds and Rs.
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Jan – I am curious about whether you ever go to anything other than Trump cheerleading sites.”
Be fair, Bitter.
She is a regular at Russian State TV, TASS, and other Russian propaganda outlets/
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I am hoping that Musk, RFK, Tulsi, JD might just keep Trump accountable enough to do what really needs to be done in his administration and overcome his freaking ego issues to be liked.
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Bitter – any suggestions?
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BREAKING: Jon Ralston sounds the alarm on Democrats’ hopes in Nevada amid the early voting bloodbath. “There is almost no way to say anything other than that the Dems need to do a lot of heavy lifting to make this a race by Nov. 5 (and beyond).”
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19000 plus overflow?
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BTW, Bitter, when posting on a polling site (HHR), currently focused on our federal election, would you rather I submitted an article about equine therapy?
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If you want to. I’m sure it is interesting. We did decline Jason’s articles on llama breeding. The photos were disturbing
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” I am hoping that Musk, RFK, Tulsi, JD might just keep Trump accountable enough to do what really needs to be done in his administration and overcome his freaking ego issues to be liked”
Dream on.
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I submitted an article about equine therapy?”
Ahhh, she is a veterinary nurse?
Still doesn’t excuse her absolutely indifference to the killing and suffering of innocent Ukrainians and her support for Putin’s war crimes.
Most people who care for animals have some kind of empathy for human suffering too.
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Well Bitter, equine therapy info is more in the wheel house of mental health or addiction rehab remedies. So, for the meantime I’ll post what I think is relevant to the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, still waiting for your suggestions.
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And more yutes in that pic too.
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Why don’t you go see what DailyKos or CNN or MSNBC is spinning.
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Maybe she can educate herself on who her hero Putin really is.
She is not the sharpest knife in the drawer but maybe a light will come on in her tiny brain and she will say hey maybe supporting an ex-KGB communist thug is not really “conservative”.
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So taking a look at Dailykos, here are their headlines:
Michelle Obama just delivered the greatest speech I’ve ever heard
1945 War Department Memo on Fascism Perfectly Describes Today’s GOP
One place where Harris is killing it in the polls: Red states
Trump Allegedly Used Burner Phone Routed Through Egypt To Illegally Pressure Michigan House Speaker
Spreading more joy MVP Harris Community event/rally
Looks like a lot of those “early-voting registered Republicans” are voting Blue — up and down the ticket too.
Stuart Stevens is Extremely Bullish on Kamala Harris’s Chances
I Look at the Polls and I See a Landslide
If ABC, NBC and CBS don’t cover the NYT endorsement of Harris, it’s a major betrayal.
And of course, none of this is disinformation or misinformation
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New @trafalgar_group #BattlegroundState #AZ General Election #poll (10/24-26)
48.1% @realDonaldTrump
46.0% @KamalaHarris
2.1% Other
3.8% Und
49.7% @RubenGallego
45.9% @KariLake
4.4% Und AZpol
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GEORGIA poll
🔴 Trump: 48.3% (+2.4)
🔵 Harris: 45.9%
@trafalgar_group | 10/24-26 | N=1,087LV
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wait. That can’t be true. I just read on dailykos that Kamala joy is winning NV, GA. AZ, NC, PA. WI and MI
and TX and FL are battleground states
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I admire a woman with a nice pool table
https://x.com/Audreyjmcneal/status/1850024471375081785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1850024471375081785%7Ctwgr%5Ef35106e9a083120df045a1759383b41ed1d2259b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fwardclark%2F2024%2F10%2F27%2Fthe-democrats-lose-another-genz-voter-a-2020-and-2024-dnc-delegate-no-less-n2181152
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“ Why don’t you go see what DailyKos or CNN or MSNBC is spinning.”
Vic is covering the DailyKos. But, why don’t you cover CNN and MSNBC, Bitter. They would mirror your Trump dislike, kind of like finding same-minded buddies for yourself.
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Pics outside MSG show quite a few Jews waiting in line. No,Hillary, not for “showers”. And they didn’t arrive by boxcar.
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We did decline Jason’s articles on llama breeding. The photos were disturbing”:
I think I sent the wrong pictures. It was supposed to be between 2 llamas.
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Not crazy about those Trafalgar polls.
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Ironic Breitbart headline:
Jews Flock to Trump Event at Madison Square Garden; Dems: ‘Nazi Rally’
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I think Cahaly got a little blindsided by the 2022 results and is being more careful this time around with his samples and weighting. Still, two and a half points ahead in GA is fine, it’s still a closely divided state that will rely partially on reduced AA turnout to win. We’ve know that going into the GE.
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NT
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