According to new polling from WHDH-TV/Emerson
 | NEW HAMPSHIRE |
| Trump | 46.7 |
| Harris | 50.3 |
also, the final NY Times/Siena poll is a tie at 48.
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
77 responses to “Trump down 3.6 in New Hampshire”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113368220960960997
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The Tangerine Fuehrer is due to speak tonight in my relatively small northern Michigan city. Trump Force 1 will pass within 100 yards of the back of my house. Local law enforcement will be stretched thin (cop this morning told me everyone is on OT) as the big crosstown HS football rivalry starts the same time Trump does.
The local leftist daily, which is reduced to buying ink by the mayonnaise jar, is resentfully giving Trump front page coverage.
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jasonyupanqui47
October 25, 2024 at 9:20 am
I don’t have access to the Annals. I hope that we are not repeating the errors of 2008, 2012, and 2020 when overstating the GOPs chances based on anecdotes and positive spin.”
I think there are real signs for optimism.
The polls do look better for Trump. The caveat is that pollsters say they have learned from their errors and the hidden Trump vote is now factored in. If that is true, Trump at best is only 50/50 in winning one of the 3 blue wall states he needs to win.
The vibes are better. While in 2016 and 2020 the vibes were negative, I think more people think Trump will win than in either of those elections. And there is evidence there is a segment of the population that wants to vote “for the winner”.
Kamala is arguably a worse candidate than either Hillary or Biden. While Hillary was disliked, she was viewed as competent. Kamala is disliked and viewed as incompetent.”
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jasonyupanqui47
October 25, 2024 at 9:25 am
but even your as a card-carrying neo-Con should support his support for Israel during his presidency, “
Trump’s crowning achievement was not his “support for Israel”, which every President always states, but the Abraham Accords.
I do give him a lot of credit for those, and I think if Trump is able to get the Saudis to normalize relations with Israel as a continuation of that process he will deserve even more credit.
Unfortunately, I view his overall foreign policy ideas as weak, isolationist and self defeating
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The NYP endorses Trump?
Zzzzzz…..
Let me know when the NYT endorses him.
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The Tangerine Fuehrer is due to speak tonight in my relatively small northern Michigan city. Trump Force 1 will pass within 100 yards of the back of my house.”
Look forward to further reports.
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I think Trump is smart to head fake the Dems into thinking he is expanding his campaign into VA, NH, NM, etc.
But at the same time, I think he has to pick one of the three states he really needs to win, WI, PA or MI and try to nail one of them down.
Camp there, spend money, send 1000 surrogates, whatever.
Nail one of them down.
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A new poster? Welcome. Unless you make us angry.
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jason, PA is the one to nail down. Its been polling the best, although Wisconsin always under-polls Trump badly.
But the math is simple. NC+GA+PA = 270.
No need to worry about the dice roll of AZ and NV
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VA may not be a head-fake. Trump is doing well here, and its gonna be close.
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jason, PA is the one to nail down.
Whatever. But I worry about Trump losing 270-268 because that is exactly the most likely scenario if he fails to win one of those 3 states. ‘
Yes, I know, he could win NH, VA, etc. but let’s face, that is only likely IF he wins the blue wall too.
If he loses MI, WI and PA its hard to imagine him winning NH or VA.
On the other hand, if he does win them, then probably other states could be in play.
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Jeffrey Shaw posted on other threads.
I had already welcomed him.
GFY.
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I even gave him a JeffS handle.
We would have JeffP, JeffG and JeffS.
A veritable Jeff trifecta.
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I think Virginia is a bridge to far. All those DC area government workers. Still, he lost Virginia by ten last cycle. I think he loses by three. That’s a seven point movement. That tells you all you need to know about the movement of this race. When your closing argument is Trump is Hitler and January 6th, your goose is cooked.
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Bettors think of the 3, PA is the most likely
https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner/will-a-democrat-win-pennsylvania-presidential-election?tid=1729864413120
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Oh Robbie. Where are you???
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Phil, I am hoping Youngkin makes the difference. He has been helping the cause here in VA tremendously. It was anger against the far left in the public school in northern Virginia and their coverup of criminal activity that helped propel Youngkin into office.
If the same sentiment of frustration exists, and there is good reason to think it is, then VA is not out of reach.
Congressional district 3 is entirely urban, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News and Hampton. Its 40% black. And its dead last in early voting, way behind everywhere else.
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It’s not out of the question, DW. Youngkin in his successful race was able to cut down the D margins in NOVA to get over the finish line.
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Halperin: I’m Not Saying Trump Is Going To Win In A Landslide, But He Is Very Active In NM, MN, VA & NH
And Rasmussen Reports is polling these states right now
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Saw a clip of Morning Joe. Mikka was in full meltdown. Screaming and out of control. Tells you plenty.
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What about acarfarce?
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He just stays in meltdown mode, Tina. LOL
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Its amazing that the Abraham accords don’t get more recognition for the breakthrough it ushered in.
I can guarantee that if Biden, Harris, Obama, Carter, Clinton had negotiated those, they would be in every school kids history lesson, and they would have won a nobel prize. Because Trump did it, no one knows about it, or even that it happened.
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what was mika saying???
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Phil it’s funny that those 2 are surprised. They even said Quemala was unpopular and demented had his faculties back in June, before the 1st debate.
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Screaming about fascist Trump, making women afraid to have babies, Trump using the military to round up his political enemies, the Atlantic accusations being proven fact………………crazy stuff and practically crying. It was all very entertaining. LOL
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question, where are they getting all this military round up, enemies within, bs from
Now its the lists. We are all going to be on lists. Walz told students yesterday Trump was going to put them on lists and round them up…obviously trying to conjur up Nazi Germany in the 30’s.
How do these people even think that could happen here? Oh right, because they do that already with the speech they prohibit, or try to (see X) if you don’t agree with them.
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They are projecting, Vic. It’s as simple as that.
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Marxist turd is for the Constitution?
“I’m Bruce Springsteen and I’m here today to support Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz for president and vice president. And to oppose Donald Trump and JD Vance. Here’s why — I want a president who reveres the constitution … Trump is running to be an American tyrant … “
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How do they think it could happen here and did it happen from 2017-Jan of 2021?
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We are now rapidly approaching the point where these unhinged Trump haters are left with just one way to stop Trump from being back in the WH……..and that scares me.
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GOP continuing to pile up a huge lead in Florida early voting. 9.36 point advantage.
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To update a famous quote attributed to Benjamin Franklin: In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes — and Democrats labeling the Republican presidential candidate a fascist for the last 60 years.
It’s been an integral part of the Democratic political playbook, utilized almost as much as calling the Republican nominee a racist. Yet, somehow, after each warning, the Third Reich has yet to materialize in the United States. This includes when former President Donald Trump was president from 2017-2021. Despite six decades’ worth of Democratic warnings of impending fascist doom failing to come true, it has never prevented the left-wing party from engaging in Reductio ad Hitlerum.
However, the constitutional republic’s appointed candidate for president, Vice President Kamala Harris, made headlines Wednesday when she stated that she believed Trump was a fascist. This tired, old, baseless trope lacks insight and intelligence. Most importantly, it is dishonest.
Best explanation of the left’s intolerance is here:
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Phil, I am hoping Youngkin makes the difference”
If he was the VP nominee this race would be over by 7:30 PM.
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OHIO poll
Senate:
🔴 Moreno: 49% (+2)
🔵 Brown: 47%
President:
🔴 Trump: 52% (+8)
🔵 Harris: 44%
OnMessage (R) | 10/19-22 | N=600LV
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NEVADA poll
Trump: 50% (+3)
Harris: 47%
OnMessage (R) | 10/19-22 | N=600LV
·
3,318 Views
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Trump plus 1 Wisconsin
same firm as above.
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are those internal. Not too excited that’s a Republican firm has the Republican up in a poll
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WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
OnMessage (R) | 10/19-22 | N=600LV
NEVADA poll
🔴 Trump: 50% (+3)
🔵 Harris: 47%
OnMessage (R) | 10/19-22 | N=600LV
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OnMessage polling is not internal. Trump uses Fabrizio Lee
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GOP still growing lead in Florida.
I keep posting updates because one of the dem points of hope-casting is that they always do better later in early voting. One of them bullishly predicted that by the end of the week the Dems would retake the lead in Florida.
Its Friday, they have not retaken the lead, but instead the GOP lead has increased now to +9.5.
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Paul Bedard
@SecretsBedard
·
16m
And in Loudoun County, two voters told me that their ballots were initially spit out by voting machines and another had her ballot ‘set aside,’ whatever that means…and it’s not good…
Quote
Glenn Youngkin
@GlennYoungkin
·
38m
Let’s be clear about what just happened: only eleven days before a Presidential election, a federal judge ordered Virginia to reinstate over 1,500 individuals–who self-identified themselves as noncitizens–back onto the voter rolls. https://governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2024/october/name-1035684-en.html
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That federal judge should be thrown in jail for violating the law.
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Agreed
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BREAKING: MEL GIBSON CONFIRMS HE IS VOTING FOR DONALD TRUMP
“SHE’S GOT THE IQ OF A FENCE POST”
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Breaking:
The National Association of Fenceposts is going to sue Mel Gibson.
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Both election simulation models (The Economist & 538) have it exactly 53-47% Trump
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
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That 9.5 R lead in Florida is overkill. Ron D, I know you’re lurking here. Cap that at 5.0 and bank the rest for 2028.
What?
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Lead in Florida is now 9.58, and D ballots about to drop below 35%.
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Update within minutes….
Early in-person voting in Nevada….
“Wow, just wow” Baris
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1849839781556961410
GOP added another 9,000…lead has now grown to 26,000
https://www.google.com/search?q=john+ralston+twitter&oq=jo&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDggAEEUYJxg7GIAEGIoFMg4IABBFGCcYOxiABBiKBTIGCAEQRRg7MgYIAhBFGEAyBggDEEUYOTIICAQQRRgnGDsyBggFEEUYPDIGCAYQRRg8MgYIBxBFGD3SAQgyMzY0ajBqOagCALACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
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Anthony Kim, pro golfer – tweet
no comment needed
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PredictIT now 60/44
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he sounds resigned:
Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
·
35m
SOS has posted in-person numbers from Thursday. Again, very consistent GOP gains overall: +9,000 ballots.
Looks as if GOP lead is about 26K statewide now in in-person and mail.
I’ll analyze it all on the blog later this morning, and maybe Clark will have updated mail file.
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Updated Redfield and Wilton:
Swing States poll by
@RedfieldWilton
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 49-47%
Pennsylvania – 🔵 Harris 48-47%
Michigan – 🟡 Tie 47-47%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 48-46%
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
—— 110 (1.8/3.0) | N=7,362 | 10/20-22
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Trump rally, Traverse City, Michigan update: 15,000 plus “tickets” gone almost immediately. Rain has stopped and clouds are breaking up. Speech scheduled at 7:30p.
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To date, no Washington compost endorsement. Rumors suggest that Bezos is stopping any endorsement of quemala.
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FINAL NATIONAL POLL
🔴 Trump: 47% (=)
🔵 Harris: 47%
🟦 FINAL 2020 POLL: Biden+12
CNN/SSRS | 10/20-23 | LVs
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Kamala Harris – “He’s Hitler
Washington Post – “Yeah we’ve thought about it and we’re still not going to endorse you over Hitler. Sorry.”
@RedSteeze Stephen L Miller
😂😂😂😂
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Yep
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Breaking Washington Compost won’t endorse.
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Jeffp got the compost decision first
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Trump added Atlanta and Milwaukee rallies.
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Dw do your book on Virginia. Trump down 1
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boom
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Harris: 49% (+1)
Trump: 48%
@QuantusInsights | 10/22-24 | N=725LV
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Harris has NOT led in ANY of the last four national polls showing at the top of the RCP average. It would be one thing if they were made up of OnMessage (R), Remington (R), Trafalgar Group, and AtlasIntel.
But instead, the four are CNN, NY Times, Wall Street Journal, and Forbes.
Trump wins if this is an honest election.
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Springsteen sounded absolutely terrible at the Harris rally in ATL. What an embarrassment. Hang it up…please.
What a poser. He made his claim to fame and fortune through appealing to the middle working class in the seventies who bought his albums (I bought his first five albums long before he was rock star) and his small venue gigs. Went to three of his concerts as a teen. World class hypocrite.
He is a total elite Woke Commie stooge. After supporting Obama my wife never listened to his music again.
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The quantum pole is Virginia.
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New Thread
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Quantum pollster: “Most common simulation result I get is Trump popular vote & 312 EVs.”
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The Fifth Circuit includes Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It doesn’t affect any swing states.
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