The New York Times/Siena College Oct. 7-10, 808 LV in AZ and 857 LV in PA
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 45 |
| Harris | 49 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 44 |
| Casey | 48 |
 | ARIZONA |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 45 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Lake | 41 |
| Gallego | 48 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
106 responses to “NY Times says Trump down 4 in PA while at same time up 5 in AZ”
First. Again.
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Here’s one for you to ponder. I live up here in the Northwest…a suburb of Seattle….yep, extreme liberal Seattle…home of Patty Murray, Jay Inslee and Evergreen State College.
The local ABC affliate, Komo, just posted a poll on the election this morning. Already close to 28,000 have voted-and no-you can’t vote more than once.
Trump 72%
Harris 28%
https://komonews.com/station/question-of-the-day/vote-if-the-election-was-today-who-would-you-vote-for-question-of-the-day-battleground-states-presidential-election-november-5-vote-kamala-harris-donald-trump#
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Third. Bueller? Bueller?
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Fourth.
Anyone home McFly? Hello, anyone home McFly?
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And so the NY Times is asking you to believe that there is a difference of 9 between AZ and PA.
Looking back …
2020 the gap between the two states was 1.03
2016 the gap between the two states was 2.78
2012 the gap between the two states was 14.44
Obviously the NY Times is telling you that Kamala is Obama, and so everyone in PA needs to start cheering like it, or else.
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isn’t it those who voted in 2020 -Biden plus 8?
The slimes are playing games with their poles.
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yes it is Tina, but if you point out that fact at Red Racing Horses, they will run you out of town and mock you for re-weighting the poll. But that is one internal that is easily measured against what actually happened, even given voter fraud.
The gap in PA in 2020 was 1.33, not 8. That is reality. So for this NY Times/Siena poll, there are only two actual possibilities:
a) They expect Trump supporters to stay home and not participate while Harris supporters are going to show up with Obama-like numbers.
or
b) They juiced the sampling of the poll to get a topline number that pleases their sponsor, the Philadelphia Inquirer.
You decide.
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LOL…Obama the door-to-door soul-winner:
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Great impersonations of the two candidates. The Trump guy really had the hand gestures down perfectly.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
TIM WALZ: Voters need to not be concerned with the difference between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
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yes tampon Tim. Because there is no difference. Well…actually, she’s worse and more liberal
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TIM WALZ: Voters need to not be concerned with the difference between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.”
ssq just emailed me:
I KNEW KAMALA HARRIS WAS A MAN!
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Boeing should move out of WA
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One would think Trump will run ahead of McCormick by more than one point.
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Could just be me, but usually when you go bird hunting, someone is carrying a shotgun. I think the birds are safe. I don’t see any guns.
https://x.com/bubblebathgirl/status/1845119752663965761?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Hello jaichind, welcome back.
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Guns are dangerous. Mind control is safer, you make the birds crash into the ground.
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One would think Trump will run ahead of McCormick by more than one point”
In 2016 Toomey actually ran slightly ahead of Trump even though they appealed to somewhat different demographics.
It could be that McCormick is doing better than Trump in the white college educated vote but worse among blue collar types who still think Casey is a moderate.
Or it could just mean that McCormick’s strategy of investing heavily in the Trump areas and less in the Philadelphia market is working.
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McCormick is spending big bucks tying Casey to Kamala.
It is obviously working as he is not just a couple points down.
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Casey wins because of his ability to pretend he is a moderate.
Take that away and he becomes mortal.
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Bill Maher:
Black men have a difficult choice:
Harris is AA, but Trump used to have a sneaker line.
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I would say that the choice is this; Trump would like to get non-violent Black offenders out of jail and make them productive citizens in a vibrant economy.
Harris, on the other hand, was happy to keep nonviolent Black offenders in prison past their parole dates so as to keep them as de facto slaves working for the state of California.
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/harris-walz-campaign-rolls-out-cringeworthy-ad-as-male-support-evaporates-cmc/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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Regarding the self-reported Biden +8 in that PA poll, I thought people tend to overreport voting for the previous winner when asked in a poll. So for a true random sample of 2020 voters I would expect some number greater than +1.3. But for an accurate 2024 poll +8 does seem quite excessive.
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We shall see….. very dubious about this. He was the same person who kept saying the debate was fixed.
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Two Georgia election workers falsely accused of rigging the 2020 election have settled a defamation lawsuit with the far-right conspiracy website The Gateway Pundit.
After the 2020 presidential election, Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss were accused of committing election fraud and counting illegal ballots in a series of stories published to the website. The pair then sued the website for defamation, and The Guardian reported that the final settlement was filed on Thursday in circuit court in Missouri.”
I hope it was a big settlement.
But not to worry, Janzam and Tina and the conspiracy theorists will keep giving the site money.
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Jan and Tina will still wear their Gateway Pundit sweatshirts.
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Jan and Tina will still wear their Gateway Pundit sweatshirts.
They will feel sorry for him and order some more.
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But defaming people in the service of Trump is patriotic!
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ok that Maher bit was good
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”Two Georgia election workers falsely accused of rigging the 2020 election…”
Even though there was video evidence of the two women pulling out containers of ballots and scanning them after the rest of poll workers had left, GA still found nothing wrong with their actions allowing them to sue those who confronted them. Remember this is the state where election machine vulnerabilities, discovered by an expert hired by the SOS, was court-sealed for almost 3 years; where RICCO charges were thrown at people for questioning election results, including Trump for an illegally recorded phone call; where the leading prosecutor, Fanni Willis, has been charged with abusing her position of DA….and where people here, because they want to defend their mockery of another blog, are acting like true leftists in using the language (“falsely accused”), normally associated with leftists, when white-washing their own devious ways to defraud an election or deactivate their opponents. Sometimes I don’t think truth matters much to some people when it comes to gaming power or even an upper hand in blog-posting.
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This is the hill Jan wants to die on? Well, Hitler was not alone in the bunker on April 30, 1945.
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LOL
Janzam thinks Gateway Pundit is “truth” just like she thinks Vladimir Putin is “truth”
There is no cure for that kind of mental illness.
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two events today for trumo
Latino Round table – Las Vegas (added). 4 pm est
Coachilla Rally 8 pm est.
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Excellent article:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/10/12/donald-trump-was-the-president-of-deflation-yes-actually-lower-prices/
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Would be nice if the licensees for cbs and Univision were pulled.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/scandal-kamala-townhall-undecided-latino-voters-curated-avowed-supporters
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Today is the Coachella rally. It’s to be held at a rural ranch between Indio and Coachella Valley. People will not be allowed to drive into the venue area, but instead have to park in one of three pre-established parking areas, and then shuttled in where they will undergo severe security checks. The list of what you can’t bring into the venue is long and restrictive. Despite all these deterrents thousands still lined up at dawn to participate in the rally.
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incoming…NEW Atlas Intel national poll
and a NEW Morning Consult/Bloomberg battleground state polling
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and apparently Trafalgar is lurking, about to deliver more polls.
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Too bad Zelensky can’t sue the crap out of Gateway Pundit for all the lies he has told about him.
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I cannot wait for the morning consult polls
-free passer
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, are acting like true leftists in using the language (“falsely accused”)”
What is the problem with “falsely accused” exactly.
Gateway Pundit made false accusations against 2 people and got burned.
Nothing “leftist” about that.
I hope it was a big fat settlement, maybe it will curtail the lies.
Not optimistic.
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Bitter, you and Jason are way out of line on this one, as you are about the J6 government abuses of powerI. Also, you fall more into the category of “useful idiots” than serious posters, in being so obsessed by responding with nothing but smears.
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This is the hill Jan wants to die on? Well, Hitler was not alone in the bunker on April 30, 1945.”
Well, remember, if Janzam couldn’t regurgitate Gateway Pundit’s conspiracy theories here she might have to think for herself.
So it’s not surprising that she might worry that he could be sued out of existence.
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Ok Bitter, let’s go 50/50 on the “useful idiots” points.
I am being generous, I brought up the settlement.
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Sometimes I don’t think truth matters much to some people”
Don’t you love it here?
This someone who thinks Russian State TV and Gateway Pundit are the “truth”.
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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as you are about the J6 government abuses of powerI.”
Where am I “out of line” on government abuses of power?
This should be good.
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You can take 75%. Gateway Pundit is an easy target.
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We are quickly arriving at the point where the narrative will be, Trump is on track to flip AZ, NV and GA, and holding NC, thereby needing only two electoral votes to reach 270, meaning he has to win only one of the following: MI, WI, PA, or VA.
By election day we might well be saying, MI, WI, PA, VA, NH, or MN.
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wasn’t Timmy in the military?
https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1845194514392142176?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Trump holding at 55 versus 49 at PredictIT
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And you are an apologist for trespassers, property destroyers, thieves, and attackers of law enforcement because they served your cult leader. I hope Trump wins but win or lose, I look forward to the day we are not compelled to vote for the same candidate.
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I don’t really know what the Dems were hoping to gain with this ploy:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
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11m
Virginia Attorney General vows to keep illegal aliens off the voter rolls after the Harris DOJ lawsuit.
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Quemala lives.
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They may judge shop it. Say it was not done within 60 days of the election. Bottom line once the illegals vote is counted, it won’t be discarded. The vote will be for quemala.
Rinos and free passers will ignore.
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Issuing drivers licenses to illegals is a disaster.
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Updated Virginia early voting numbers just dropped. GOP leaning congressional districts had a huge day yesterday, expanding their lead in ballots returned from 22896 to 27309.
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DEM rescue polls incoming…
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m
It’s looking like tomorrow we are getting ABC, NBC and CBS polls.
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So, we will see Quemala up 5 nationally and a free passer promoting it?
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More conservative Congress (no Rinos and fakers)
@shipwreckedcrew
Democrats’ fear: A Trump win in the popular vote and 330+ EC votes. In the face of all the Democrat demagoguery across a variety of issues, that would be a mandate to do away with everything done by Biden/Harris the past 4 years, and to revisit some of what Obama did over 8 years that Trump was obstructed from accomplishing in his first term. A mandate, plus majorities in the House and Senate might deliver was liberals have been promising: That a significant number of the most famous ones will depart for Canada or France.
·
1,585 Views
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No way in heck would the secret service (despite its decline) have the props with their guns next to a protectee (doltz). This looks a lot like the pics from 2004/john Kerry
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/haha-tampon-tim-walz-poses-hunting-photo-op/
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Props = the other “hunters”.
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Two people not to go hunting with:
doltz
Cheney
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At the Hispanic round table, trump did not speak to the guests in a Hispanic accent.
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The IG report detailing how many FBI informants (agitators) were in what started out as a well-mannered protest crowd, has been postponed until after the election. Like everything else, that could cast a more truthful light on an issue or an event (Hunter’s laptop, the GA voting machine issues), reports are withheld until well after their importance has lost relevance. Bitter acts, though, like he was filming and personally experiencing the J6 event, while casting aspersions and judgments based only on media footage and biased reporting, rather than digging deeper into the stories and independent documentaries of what really happened that day.
I watched the Nevada round table event hosted by Hispanics with DJT. Besides Goya Foods CEO, Brown running for the Senate, there were 6 Hispanic panelists detailing their immigration stories and life under the former and current administrations. Their gratitude and warmth towards Trump probably would have caused someone like Bitter to label them “Cultists,” as they unabashedly expressed appreciation for his policies that helped them. One said the difference between the actions of administrations caused him to “pay attention to policies, not media hype.”
Their realization about the importance of policies over media hype, counters how this “conservative” oriented blog, supposedly rooting for republicans to win, can’t seem to put aside caustic remarks, dealing with personality flaws and media manipulation, until early 2025. IMO, it will be legal immigrants, like the ones at this forum, who will be of the biggest help in seeing Harris/Walz defeated next month’s election.
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Jan – As I said on 1/6/2021, the people who stayed outside the Capitol were protesters. The ones who went inside were trespassers, and the ones who broke things, stole things, or attacked law enforcement were criminals. Overcharging them and unduly harsh sentences did not change that.
I could not care less if there were Federal agents wearing Deep State sweatshirts with bullhorns yelling, “Anybody want to come inside and start breaking things and attacking law enforcement?” Everybody on that day was solely and 100% responsible for their own actions.
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bitter is correct. Anyone who went in was not a peaceful protestor, but a trespasser and should have been charged as such.
they were not insurrectionists
both are true
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Where are these polls? Isn’t Marist was suppose to release a couple of state polls yesterday?
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while casting aspersions and judgments based only on media footage and biased reporting, rather than digging deeper into the stories and independent documentaries of what really happened that day.”
LOL
Bitter, you can believe your own eyes or you can believe janzam’s “peaceful protest” meme.
I know, it’s a tough one.
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counters how this “conservative” oriented blog,”
Janzam, who comes here daily to shill for a communist ex-KGB thug while pretending the mother of all RINOs Trump is a conservative, think she can tell others here who is and isn’t a conservative?
Wins the chutzpah award of the month.
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IMO, it will be legal immigrants, like the ones at this forum, who will be of the biggest help in seeing Harris/Walz defeated next month’s election.”
Wtf?
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I haven’t said much about the Mets advancing to the National League title series, or whatever they are calling it now. I am a traditionalist. I hate the DH, extra inning ghost runners, the pitch clock, and all these recent gimmicks. I prefer the older playoff system where each league had two divisions only, so there was just four playoff teams total. Yeah, I know that the Mets wouldn’t have made it this year. But the way it is now, way too long of playoffs and too many teams.
I also don’t like how the current playoff structure leaves teams like the Phillies sitting idle for a week while other teams play to see who advances. Baseball is a game of rhythm where they need to keep playing so they don’t get stale. Its okay to have a day or two off, but a week off is horrible.
The Mets came into the series with huge momentum and energy, while the Phillies were rusty, having not played for so long.
I am glad the Mets advanced, but still hold to the principle that they shouldn’t have been in the playoffs at all. Both can be true.
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The moonbats have their own people who live in an alternate reality too. This woman is the Janzam of the left.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett:
We do have a problem of gangs overrunning towns and cities. I absolutely agree with that. But guess what? It’s the MAGA gang and the white supremacists. It’s not the illegal immigrants who have come to make our economy stronger.”
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At least she admits they are illegal.
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Kamala running ads against Jill Stein…
ttps://x.com/harrisonjaime/status/1844724867892985957?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1844784922868773299|twgr^38723a313645ecc46ae019a214fe42e6b07c05de|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Fdavid-strom%2F2024%2F10%2F12%2Fyes-the-democrats-really-are-panicking-n3795703
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https://x.com/harrisonjaime/status/1844724867892985957?ref_src=twsrctfw|twcamptweetembed|twterm1844784922868773299|twgr38723a313645ecc46ae019a214fe42e6b07c05de|twcons3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Fdavid-strom%2F2024%2F10%2F12%2Fyes-the-democrats-really-are-panicking-n3795703
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m
Trump is going all in on his “America First” message tonight.
Just remember that this is a change election and Trump’s messaging has a VERY strong resonance with voters.
He’s very disciplined in the final stretch.
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Not to piss on the baseball fans here, but Major league baseball is the incredible shrinking sport. It is both amazing and a shame given how dominant it used to be through the 1990’s. I used to love to watch playoff baseball, but have watched less and less each year and have hardly watched any of the games this season. Back in the glory days of the 80’s and 90s I even went to World Series and earlier round playoff games and was totally into it. But to be honest, I have lost some enthusiasm for all sports over the years given all the political BS that has infected them.
Ohtani was born about 30 years too late.
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MLB has given in to the low class players who stand and watch home runs, showboat and talk crap all game, all while batting .190 and striking out once every four at bats.
it’s not fun to watch. Playoffs are too many teams. I was ok with one playoff team. You don’t need three. You don’t need to appeal to the lowest common denominator
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I’d be fine with no playoffs, just the top performing team in each league meeting for a seven game contest in October. I’d also be fine with 154 games, no DH in the NL, no clocks, no 2nd base runner in the 10th and so on.
These executives ruined what I loved growing up (to be fair, it was 162 games by then). I stick around largely out of loyalty to my late father’s team because I have a lot of good memories. But aside from that, I’m done with pro sports and thus have a LOT of spare time in my life to pursue other hobbies and passions.
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FWIW, Trump is just down the road from me tonight, but I made zero effort to get there (and honestly had zero interest). Enjoying a cocktail at the hot springs and heading into Palm Springs for dinner soon for Wife 2.0 birthday.
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Vic – I disagree. There were no 100 win teams this year. The difference between the 1 and 6 seeds in each league wasn’t great. As for the players, you are living in a genteel past that never existed. Players sharpened their cleats. Pete Rose ruined a player’s career in an all star game. Players talked trash as much or worse. There was just no media or social media coverage. Showboating? To be shown to 2 cameras in newsreels a week later? I’m fine with the game now. The layoff for the top 2 seeds in each league is too long but the only way to fix it would be 8 teams in each league and no layoff.
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“But to be honest, I have lost some enthusiasm for all sports over the years given all the political BS that has infected them.”
If baseball is anything like NFL or the NBA I don’t blame you. I watch the major golf tournaments, seems like the least woke of sports, but even there you have interviews with the sponsors and the woke BS emerges. Still, it is like 10 minutes in a 5 hours stretch, not like the NFL where you have to watch endless woke messages on the field, woke ads by self entitled millionaires telling you how you should think and vote, and endless shots of Taylor Swift or whatever liberal icon might be present. It is almost like football is just bait for the real show, far leftist politics.
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Bitter. Happy to agree to disagree. The Mets are the only team who didn’t finish top 2 in the league to make the championship series. The Phil’s got unlucky to run into a hot Mets team or it would have been four out of four
playing hard (sharpening cleats and running into catchers) is different than standing at home plate, embarrassing yourself and trying to show up the other player. Being more worried about how many wristbands and chains you show instead of actually trying to hit the ball in a way that helps your team (not always swinging for the fences) is what baseball used to be about.
I don’t like today’s game as much, which is why hockey is creeping up quickly (I’ve always loved the Rangers) to overtake baseball. Even there the sissy’s on Park Ave try to limit the fights, though there was a doozy in tonight’s game.
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Can’t wait for the Mets/Dodgers game tomorrow night….October baseball at its finest.
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But aside from that, I’m done with pro sports and thus have a LOT of spare time in my life to pursue other hobbies and passions.”
I feel the same way. At first I kept up with the highlights and scores but now I don’t even really know when seasons start and end and unless I read something by chance or my sons text me something about a game I am completely oblivious.
Supposedly, some people now watch football so they can get a glimpse of Taylor Swift. Somehow I think it is a bad trade when you lose long time fans like those posting tonight.
Personally, I think one day the NFL will rue the day it went woke.
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I don’t want the Dodgers to win. I just want the Mets to lose.
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with everything I said above, I can’t wait to watch this series. Takes me back to my youth and 1988…except Mets are underdogs this time
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Now this is funny !!!
https://x.com/inga_c8/status/1845261598287364497?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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lol. That was funny
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I thought CTE and brain damage was going to kill the NFL. It still may, but I am less sure of that now. My sports viewing is way down overall. I also refuse to subscribe to any video service with ESPN. I have found that many games on ESPN can be found streaming on Youtube, so if I want to check in on something it is always right there.
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I’m getting reports that there was a massive crowd in the Coachella Valley for Trump tonight….some said as high as 60,000 but probably around 30,000….buses that had to shuttle attendees were lined up miles long to get the people to the rally hours before it started. I also read that tens of thousands lined the travel route to cheer on the motorcade as it arrived.
And to understand that this Trump rally was in the middle of nowhere in a desert and dusty town where they grow peppers, tomatoes and dates.
I think I’ve seen everything now with Trump.
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Follow up….and the temperature in the Coachella Valley was north of 95 degrees at the time of the rally.
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FLORIDA POLL: Mason-Dixon
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
FL Senate
🟥 Rick Scott (inc): 48%
🟦 Mucarsel-Powell: 41%
🟪 Other: 2% 31 (2.6/3.0) | 10/2-4 | 625 RV | ±4%
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General Election – National
🟦 Harris 50% (+2)
🟥 Trump 48%
ABC/IPSOS | 1,714 LV | 10/04-10/08
Last poll 🟦 Harris +6
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NBC pole-natiomal.-10-4 to 10-8
Tied at 48%
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