If you believe Christopher Newport University (Sept. 28-Oct. 4; 800 LV) or Democracy Institute (10/2-10/3; 800 LV)
 | VIRGINIA – CNU |
| Trump | 41 |
| Harris | 52 |
| VIRGINIA – Democracy Institute | |
| Trump | 45 |
| Harris | 47 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
100 responses to “Harris up 11 in Virginia or 2 in Virginia depending on who you believe”
First.
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“On Monday, the one year anniversary of the October 7 attack that Hamas perpetrated against Israel, the Trump-Vance campaign held a press call to highlight the ticket’s strength on supporting our ally in the Middle East, as well as peace in the region, and around the world. During such a call, former Democratic Rep. Pete Deutsch of Florida’s 20th Congressional District endorsed former and potentially future President Donald Trump.”
I kinda remember this guy as being a far leftist….
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The “Abandon Harris” group pushing for voters to protest Vice President Harris over the conflict in Gaza is endorsing the Green Party’s Jill Stein in the presidential race.
The group, formerly known as “Abandon Biden,” is calling on Muslim Americans and others frustrated with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war to cast their ballots for the long-shot third-party bid.
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Lucky A-hole must have beaten my by seconds…
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The complexities and downside of being super rich:
https://archive.is/2024.10.07-020721/https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2024/10/05/donald-trump-wall-street-tower-40-building/
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for the long-shot third-party bid.”
Shhhh.. I think she has a good chance…
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Given CNU’s poll had Hung Cao down TWENTY points to the empty suit, I would tend to believe Democracy Institute is closer to the truth.
I am not a gambler, but would eagerly bet that Cao covers the spread on a -20 prediction. He’s not likely to win, but its not going to be -20.
This data alone shows Virginia is going to be close:
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/early-voting-by-district/
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Kids have caught on…
https://x.com/TONYxTWO/status/1843325291990765743
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Jan, I saw that you said it’s in Coachella. I’m familiar with the area, used to own an old farmhouse in Beaumont. I’m actually going out to the Springs this coming weekend, but in wouldn’t endure two to three hours in metro LA traffic to see Trump; if he comes out towards the coast, maybe I’ll consider it.
Raul Ruiz has entrenched himself out there, but it’s also one of the SoCal Hispanic seats that is primed to move right IF the polling trends are real. I’d put money on the seats further west to shift first, though, as they don’t have a white Pinko hub like San Fran South aka Palm Springs to hold them back into the Blue.
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Competence is rewarded I guess….
KJP Moves to Role as Senior Adviser”
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Didn’t Sony Bono represent Palm Springs for many years? I guess it wasn’t so pinko then.
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Stein is on the ballot in Michigan. Also, they may elect to stay home, which is a win.
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Jason, the city itself shifted Left as assorted alphabet folks flocked there, and then redistricting ran the eastern end around over to Salton Sea and El Centro, making it super Blue.
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”Lucky A-hole must have beaten my by seconds…”
No luck involved.
When this A-hole is clicking on all cylinders, everyone will finish behind me.
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I remember when new A-holes were meant to be seen and not heard.
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Heading to my hometown Motown for games 3 & 4 of the ALDS. Series tied 1-1!
The way I feel now Trump wins over 300 electoral votes and we take the House and Senate!
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I remember when new A-holes were meant to be seen and not heard.”
Maybe Scooter didn’t hear that policy
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I have no skin in the game, but I guess if there were a team I’d like to win the World Series this year, it would be the Royals. Most likely won’t happen, but I’m rooting for the underdogs.
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I remember not winning close senate seats in 2016 (like Ayotte) with Trump winning. I think then the senate candidates were from a different wing of the party than Trump and that meant that neither or only one could win.
Maybe it is different this year with candidates being more similar to Trump.
I am not going to be optimistic about Trump winning since I have been disappointed in the past.
With the polls being all over the place, I am uncomfortable.
I want to believe DW’s numbers. But, I also want to be realistic.
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To be fair to DW, Trump lost NH by a larger margin than Ayotte did, and she did herself no favors by un-endorsing him and then flip flopping around on that issue so that a dead ender 3rd party type could soak up angry Trumpsters to cost her the seat by 700 votes.
To date, I believe only Susan Collins has won on the same ballot that Trump lost; Senate and concurrent POTUS elections seems to fall the same way now.
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Language and content warning; Kamala interviewed on that “naughty” podcast.
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the numbers in the grid are based on the actual poll numbers, but weighted as to the inclusion share based on the factors on the methodology page
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GF, as a kid my family would frequently drive out to my aunt’s house in Indio. We always stopped at date stands along the Hwy, and picked grapefruit from my aunt’s back yard. Other than that early memory I have little familiarity with the Coachella Valley, and usually just stay in coastal areas. I do wonder, though if people like representatives Steel or Garcia will be at such a rally….or will they shun Trump.
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Saw truly disgusting ad.
Kamala is featuring Pence and Bolton and Miley statements against Trump.
I don’t know about Miley but neither Pence or Bolton endorsed her and they should not let their images be used in the ads, or at least they should make statements about it.
But Pence being a weak man, he won’t.
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Trump has trashed Pence for years. Pence told Trump to F off. I respect that.
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I have known Ayotte since 1990. Brilliant lawyer and good person.
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I don’t. Pence deserves no respect at all. He is a weak, disloyal, pathetic figure.
If he had any problems with Trump, he should have resigned. Instead, he goes around whining and divulging confidential conversations with Trump.
There is little loyalty in politics, but if there is ONE person who should either be loyal to Trump or keep his mouth shut it is Pence.
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Pence did get his just rewards for being a disloyal ass. His run for President was a dismal embarrassing failure.
Now he is featured in Kamala Harris ads. Can’t go any lower than that.
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“the numbers in the grid are based on the actual poll numbers, but weighted as to the inclusion share based on the factors on the methodology page”
Good Grief !!!! I think I need a drink.
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Pence thinks he is going to be respected by Dems because he let them use him as a sad little tool?
Think again, they will still despise him.
The guy could have retired with some dignity.
Now he will be a pariah with just about everybody.
But hey, he deserves it.
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To be honest, I don’t understand any of this, but I thought it sounded good so thought I’d post it. Concerns Pennsylvania.
https://x.com/realskeshel/status/1843424091077755048?s=46&t=j3o7buVbI9kLYuftUwY1bg
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Another interesting move by Trump.
BREAKING: Trump will hold a rally in AURORA, COLORADO this Friday at 1PM MT.
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Aurora is where the recent issue of illegals taking over the apartment blocks occurred. It is also either within or very close to the competitive 8th CD, where polling has shown Trump running even.
He’s either grown wiser, or is at least following the counsel of his handlers who know they need to defend vulnerable seats and pick off Dem seats as well. I don’t expect any more out of Blue CO, but if might ing is going to strike, it can’t hurt to take a flyer on the state.
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Trump interview with:
Kamala interview on Call Her Daddy: 170,000 views
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When you’ve lost Cenk ……
Cenk Uygur: Democrats say all the time that Trump is crazy. Then how come you can’t easily beat someone who is insane? I also think Trump is crazy, but I know exactly why Democrats can’t put him away. Because Dems don’t realize the country hates the establishment, and that’s who they are.
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My source in the White House tells me…….
There was a physical altercation between Jill and Kamala staffers in the White House after Joe’s press room last week, began with accusations that the Bidens were undermining Kamala deliberately, per WH official
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Trump is not winning Colorado but it is a good move anyway. Helps downballot races and freaks out the Dems.
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BARIS: We are seeing no change from the last national poll we did. Tied national popular vote.
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That was an interesting link for PA thanks for posting it Scooter.
A comment caught my eye.
“I actually am fairly confident Trump will win in PA (more confident than any other swing state) but this trend does overstate his momentum. The reason why the margin is dropping (as in 2020) is because more and more registered Dems who were voting GOP are now registered as GOP.”
I think this is partially true. Some of blue collar vote in red PA used to be registered DEM but started voting GOP and might be changing registration.
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Tied national popular vote”
That is a Trump win.
I am skeptical Trump will win the popular vote because of CA and some other blue states.
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I still remember enjoying Cenk’s meltdown in 2016 as returns came in.
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Is Cenk sober? He makes a lot of sense here:
“Because Dems don’t realize the country hates the establishment, and that’s who they are.”
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Quemala apparently picked a fight with Rds, who just swatted the Beotch down.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
#BREAKING: DeSantis scathes Kamala Harris after she claimed he snubbed a call with her ahead of the hurricane “[It’s] delusional […] She’s doing [this] because of her campaign. I don’t have time for political games. I have lives on the line.”
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LIAR
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He should have asked her if she owned a Glock 54 or a 58 (neither exist).
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“Trump is not winning Colorado but it is a good move anyway”?
What exactly does ‘a good move anyway’ mean? Did Trump plan on losing Colorado? Most of us already know that Colorado has become a blue state because of the influx of Californians there.
Can someone please explain this nonsense?
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Using DW’s current polling average for NY and CA, I calculated that the tightening in those two states alone would reduce the Biden 2020 national margin of 4.46% to 3.30%.
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Jason, depending on the final results, obviously, if she wins NY and NJ in the 55-42 range, MA and MD 62-36 or so, IL 56-43, and CA 60-38, Trump can win the PV. CA and NY alone remove about 3 million off of Biden’s overall margin of victory.
Just occurred to me that Trump may want to win the PV, especially if his internals are showing good things in the battlegrounds. Swinging by a deep blue state and narrowing the margins (along with helping valuable down ticket Republicans) works to that effect.
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Can someone please explain this nonsense?”
I explained why I thought it was a good move to go there.
Helps downballot races and freaks out the Dems.
I would ad that it will probably highlight the Venezuelan gangs that are trying to take over.
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The aurora colorado visit or rally was promised several weeks ago. Remeber, the illegal Venezuelans taking over the apartment buildings?
They first said misinformation, then maybe true, and then finally true.
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Great ad by Hovde.
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Apparently quemala refused to refute the reporter who stated, there are reports you called Rds and he refused your call.”
She is being starved for attention.
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Now, we get an admission that she never called Rds in the first place.
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And these visits are largely due to quemala staying hime and doing her tough interviews with the likes of Scarfarce and the view less.
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CA and NY alone remove about 3 million off of Biden’s overall margin of victory”
You are still short over 4 million.
Trump should not spend a cent or a second to win the PV.
In 2020, if he had stop visiting and investing in Florida 2 weeks before the election and concentrated on AZ, GA and WI, he would be President despite the fraud.
The goal here is to win the EC, the rest is fluff.
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I cannot believe the two freaks, Mika and Scarfarce, are promoting civil war. wtf us wrong with them?
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I’m not suggesting he should, but his visits to deep blue states could help have that effect, along with changes in turnout (both lower AA, for example, and newer or low propensity voters breaking big for Trump as polling has suggested).
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where are they promoting civil war Tina
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Trump starting a civil war is what they promoted this am.
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lord
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Yikes. Ccp Xi will,not fear her.
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Vic:
MSNBC host Joe Scarborough claimed Monday on “Morning Joe” that former President Donald Trump was “preparing for civil war.”
Saturday in Pennsylvania, Trump said, “Those who want to stop us from achieving this future have slandered me, impeached me, indicted me, tried to throw me off the ballot. And who knows? Maybe even tried to kill me.”…
Scarborough said, “The level of un-American activity that you just saw is stunning. That is un-American. They know they’re lying. Donald Trump knows that’s a lie. He will tell you that the Secret Service, he thought, did the best job they could do. The fact that JD Vance and Trump’s family would out and out say what they said takes the threat of violence takes the threat beyond where it was even leading up to January 6. This is an increasingly desperate person, an increasingly desperate family, who is preparing for civil war. They just are.”
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Too much pot and wine.
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I think Alka Seltzer is more likely to eat a dozen donuts first.
LAUGHABLE: CNN’s Brian Stelter Claims Kamala Harris Will Face ‘Sharp Questions’ on ‘The View
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hhahahah she truly is a trainwreck
If Trump loses to her, he should claim future ownership to the line from Aladdin “I can’t believe I’m losing to a rug”
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Trump is not loyal to anybody.
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Either Trump or Harris will be in Philadelphia today to tie up traffic. Not sure which one.
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NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 51% (+6)
🔴 Trump: 45%
Last poll: Harris+5
Morning Consult | Oct. 4-6 | N=11,353LV
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RDS is based. What a freaking leader.
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NYT/Siena National Poll (Sept. 29 – Oct. 6):
🔵 Harris: 49% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 46%
Previous poll was tied at 47%-47%.
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These polls out today are horrible for Trump. We better hope there’s another substantial polling miss.
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NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 47% (+2) [-3]
🔴 Trump: 45% [+1]
[+/- from last poll]
Ipsos | Oct. 4-7 | N= 969LV
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ARIZONA poll
🔵 Harris: 48.7% (+0.9)
🔴 Trump: 47.8%
@SocalStrategies | Oct. 5-7 | N=735LV
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FLORIDA poll
🔴 Trump: 55% (+13 rounded)
🔵 Harris: 41%
NYT | Sept. 29-Oct. 6 | N=622LV
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Rds she is doing this because of her failing campaign.
so true.
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TEXAS poll
🔴 Trump: 50% (+6)
🔵 Harris: 44%
NYT | Sept. 29-Oct. 4 | N=617LV
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Eric Daugherty: per wsj, trump plus 3- drat internal Wisconsin.
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If quemala were ahead, why would she pick a fight with Rds. At the same time,m she is not spending time in Florida. Makes no sense.
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It appears that quemala is starving for attention and relegated to shows like the viewlews, 60 seconds, and one of the late night drug addicts.
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Viewless*
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i will have a new thread up within an hour
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Rmg nevada is tied @49%
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It appears NYT/Sienna & RMG are seeing different races in Florida
RMG Trump +2 (older poll)
NYT/Sienna Trump + 13
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Here is the source article indicating that Quemala is down 3 in Wisconsin.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-struggling-to-break-through-with-working-class-democrats-fear-fe2038b8?st=sRZNvC
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It’s strange that they are releasing “internals” from several different campaigns.
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Ny times has a pole of quemala doing better in the Midwest, when compared to her Thighness and demented. Garbage in and out.
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https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/watch-haitian-migrant-reportedly-caught-chopping-up-animal-in-springfield-oh-cmc/
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@realDonaldTrump
The Interview on 60 Minutes with Comrade Kamala Harris is considered by many of those who reviewed it, the WORST Interview they have ever seen. She literally had no idea what she was talking about, and it was an embarrassment to our Country that a Major Party Candidate would be so completely inept. In addition, her Incompetence on “helping” people through the devastation of Hurricane Helene is being reviewed as, by far, the Worst in American History, even worse than Katrina – If that is possible! I can’t imagine anybody living in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, or Tennessee, voting for her. Pollsters are saying that the anti, or negative, Vote in those places, and even places not affected but with people watching what took place, will be heavily against her. This is good news because November 5th is the Most Important Day in the History of our Country, and we cannot bear four more years of Incompetence. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
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shipwreckedcrew
If Harris was in a strong position to win she would be barnstorming the country with House and Senate candidates in close races in an effort to generate coattails for majorities in Congress. She is not – she can hardly bring herself to be interviewed by anyone who has not endorsed her. She goes on a podcast that is targeted at women under 40 – if she doesn’t have that demographic banked 30 days out from the election then put a fork in her – she’s done.
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