Washington Post says Trump up two in NC, taken Sept 25-29 against 1,001 likely voters. AARP says Trump is down two in PA, in a little bit of stale poll taken 9/17-24 against 928 LVs. Finally Rasmussen released Florida data collected Aug. 15-Sept. 29 against 1,243 LV:
 | NORTH CAROLINA |
| Trump | 50 |
| Harris | 48 |
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 47 |
| Harris | 49 |
| Other | 2 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 45 |
| Casey | 49 |
 | FLORIDA |
| Trump | 51 |
| Harris | 43 |
And here is an update on Virginia early voting, where the GOP districts gained another 3,000+ votes cast against yesterday’s numbers:
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
64 responses to “Trump up 2 in NC but down 2 in PA and other polls”
The NRSC should resist putting money into the FL or TX senate races because of polling head fakes. Or MT at this point.
Pour it into PA, MI, WI and MD (highlight Dem financial scandal).
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Detester really was damaged yesterday. That was a clear win by Tim Sheehy.
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Biden upset with Harris – NBC News
Being out of the limelight is reportedly hard for the US president
US President Joe Biden has privately complained that he is no longer being given credit for his service, NBC News claimed on Tuesday, citing insiders. Biden is reportedly upset that the national media’s attention has switched to the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris.
Biden “was particularly stung” by a moment during Harris’s debate with Trump last month, when she said: “Clearly, I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump. And what I do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country.”
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General election poll
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +1
Nevada – 🔴 Trump +1
N. Carolina – 🔴 Trump +1
Georgia – 🟡 Tie
Insider advantage #B – 800 LV (Each) – 9/30
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Trump +3 in Ras daily tracker today.
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Yikes.
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General election poll
Michigan – 🔵 Harris +2
Nevada – 🔴 Trump +1
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +1
Wisconsin – 🟡 Tie
Remington #C (🔴) – LV – 9/20
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Nice summation by Sheehy.
SHEEHY: Sen. Tester has been in office many years. I thank him for his service, but he also voted to impeach Donald Trump twice. He said on CNN we should punch him in the face. He voted with Biden and Harris every single time it mattered, voted against all Supreme Court judge nominees that came from the Trump administration, and has advocated to end the filibuster and expand the Supreme Court
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Insider Polling: “Key quote: “We see signs of Donald Trump gaining momentum in each of the states we surveyed where he led and potentially even in Georgia, where the race is tied.”
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Tester doesn’t represent Montana anymore than Skyqueen represented Missouri.
He was lucky to survive until now but his time is up.
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Polymarket looks bad for Tester…
https://polymarket.com/event/montana-us-senate-election-winner?tid=1727791139674
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It’s funny how the senate Florida race went from +1 to double digit lead. Something eventful must have happened.
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Detester also looked visibly old and tired in that debate.
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there are seven newer polls of PA than that AARP poll
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Walz is a compulsive liar…
https://freebeacon.com/democrats/tim-walz-said-he-was-in-hong-kong-during-the-tiananmen-square-massacre-he-was-home-in-nebraska/
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MONTANA SENATE poll Sheehy: 52% (+8) Tester: 44% Remington Research (R) | Sept. 16-20
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3,622 Views
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BREAKING: Iran prepares ballistic missile attack against Israel, White House says (CNN)
“A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” the official reportedly said.
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Dester? I hate the nicknames but that one doesn’t make sense. Why not Fester?
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Bl, the nickname should be Detester
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Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh
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22m
👀 POLLSTER INSIDERADVANTAGE: “In each state [in the Sun Belt] the response to ‘ [how] the neighbors [will vote]’ question expanded Trump’s lead well beyond the margin of error.”
We were talking about some of this weeks ago, wondering if there would be shy polling respondents. When you have a candidate who is being shot at, some people are going to be more shy about telling a stranger, yes! I am voting for the guy they are shooting at! Simply because they don’t want to be persecuted themselves.
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Whatever. If anybody asks, I tell them how I vote. If Garland wants to call me, I will tell him, too.
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Got it.
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Fixed it.
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Quinnipiac, dead last in 2020 in terms of pollster accuracy, will drop GA and NC polls today. Their prior polls were GA +4 for Trump, and NC +3 for Harris.
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North Carolina is struggling to get election offices ready for voting – Reuters
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Not many good polls for Trump so far today. Wonder what the ID weighting on some of these polls are.
General election poll
🔵 Harris 51% (+4)
🔴 Trump 47%
Last poll (9/11) – 🔵 Harris +3
Leger #C – 1010 LV – 9/29
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Someone said the Leger poll is D+6. Not sure if that’s correct or not.
I guess it’s going to come down to rather you believe the environment that Gallup is showing (R+3), or the environment most pollsters are showing (D+4 on up). Ras is even using a D+2, but finding Trump ahead by about 2 points.
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I believe Trafalgar will be releasing Michigan and Wisconsin polls sometime today as well.
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I told Amos Stoltzfuss he should vote for Trumph because the Dems will be trying to tell him how to raise his cows.
It was the strongest argument I could make.
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There are 6 people of voting age in his HH if they would all vote.
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Stephen Kruiser says JD Vance already won the debate.
And here Bitter attacks me for commenting on debates I don’t watch.
https://pjmedia.com/stephen-kruiser/2024/10/01/the-vp-debate-hasnt-happened-yet-but-jd-vance-has-already-won-n4932961
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So these are the issue numbers in the Leger poll, but somehow they have Harris +4. Make it make sense.
NATIONAL poll, issues
🔴 Illegal migration: Trump+14 (57%-43%)
🔴 Economy: Trump+12 (56%-44%)
🔴 National security: Trump+10 (55%-45%)
🔴 Taxes/spending: Trump+8 (54%-46%)
🔴 Inflation/prices: Trump+8 (54%-46%)
🔴 Crime: Trump+6 (53%-47%)
Leger | Sept. 27-29 | N=1,010LV
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I won’t be watching tonight either, i have to mount a new scope on a rifle, but I will be anxious to read Bitter’s synopsis.
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So these are the issue numbers in the Leger poll, but somehow they have Harris +4. Make it make sense”
Most people who think Trump is better on all the issues that they deem important will vote for Harris because they hate Trump.
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BREAKING REPORT: ⚠️ Unconfirmed reports emerging that President Trump’s Milwaukee event scheduled for today HAS BEEN CANCELED due to security concerns..
DEVELOPING..
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”Make it make sense”
The call of the uteri is far too powerful to resist for many.
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Seeing a lot posts on X just like this one.
Ryan Fournier: This strike seems preplanned and it seems to potentially benefit Kamala Harris to come in and save the day.
Don’t trust anything.
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If Trump stays out of it, the negative effects on the economy will be owned by the current administration. Can’t see how it benefits Harris unless DJT gets involved and tries to broker a deal.
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Trump raises almost $3 million fo Hurricane Helene relief.
Additional starlink internet terminals sen to Nc by Elon, after Elon learned rom Trump that they were needed.
Trump also brought in supplies.
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Oh wow, demented and quemala only approved a disaster declaration for 11/90 ga counties.
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RIP, Frank Fritz. American Pickers made me realize I just didn’t have any valuable junk.
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Let me guess, those 11 GA counties are heavily populated by folks of a, shall we say, richer hue. I mean, she’s all about equity for disaster relief.
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Yikes !!!!
Iran has officially attacked Israel.
BREAKING:🚨🚨🚨🚨
All Israeli civilians have been ordered to go inside bomb shelters as rockets from Iran were just fired at Israel.
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Interesting !!!!
Harold Daggett, the ILA boss who pledged to “cripple” the United States, owns a 76-foot yacht, a Bentley, and gets paid over $900,000.
He was acquitted on RICO charges after the main witness against him, mobster Lawrence Ricci, was found decomposing in a car trunk in New Jersey.
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Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh
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5m
BREAKING: Iran launches missiles at Israel – IDF
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Did quemala and demented give more pallets of cash to the mullahs?
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Well, I’m sure that after this missile attack the Biden administration will give Iran a cash bonus.
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Loon Cheney supports Ted Cruz’ opponent.
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Obamala Harris campaign schedule today:
2:00 pm: She will be the Muslim counties in Michigan rooting for the Iranian missiles to destroy Israel.
6:00 pm: She will be in a Jewish center in Pennsylvania decrying the violence and taking credit for the iron dome that shot down all the incoming missiles.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
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2m
BREAKING: The “entire country” of Israel is currently taking missile fire by Iran – Fox News reporter Trey Yingst
“Israel doesn’t have an unlimited supply of interceptors […] Iran is trying to overwhelm Israel’s missile defense system.”
I guess Israel had it coming, I mean the audacity of not voluntarily slitting all their own throats and handing their country over to the mullahs.
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All of this on Jimmah carters 100th birthday.
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I can’t believe he’s still around; he entered hospice at least six months ago. Maybe he’ll let go now that he hit the big milestone.
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Not casualties reported from the missile attacks, so they were either for show or the Iranians are incompetent or both.
Seems to me that the October 6 attacks has provided Israel with the opportunity to wipe out their two most pressing problems, Hamas and Hezbollah.
And they are taking advantage of the opportunity.
At the price of 2000 Israelis killed (civilians + losses in Gaza) Israel might be coming out way ahead.
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No casualties
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All clear issued in Israel
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8 killed in terror attack on train station in Israel.
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BOOM!
GEORGIA poll
🔴 Trump: 50% (+6)
🔵 Harris: 44%
Quinnipiac | Sept. 25-29 | N=942LV
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Supposedly a lot of the missiles were shot down over Syria, never made it to Israel.
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That is a good poll and bodes well for NC.
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But Quemala told the mullahs “don’t.”
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New Thread
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