According to a poll by Research and Polling for @ABQJournal taken Sept. 6-13 against 532 LVs. In Iowa, the Des Moines Register was taken 9/8-11 against 656 LVs
 | NEW MEXICO |
| Trump | 39 |
| Harris | 49 |
 | IOWA |
| Trump | 47 |
| Harris | 44 |
| RFK | 6 |
| Oliver | 1 |
Also Trafalgar out with a poll showing Harris up 2 in Nevada:
 | NEVADA |
| Trump | 43.5 |
| Harris | 45.3 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Brown | 40.4 |
| Rosen | 48.2 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
105 responses to “Harris up 10 in New Mexico, Trump up only 4 in Iowa”
On Iowa who reported that Annie tossed the plus 18 pole (or whatever it was)? I saw several folks mention this, but who originated it?
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Both Baris and Barnes heard the rumors independently. But they both said it was widely known in the polling community.
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Thanks. I know her final pole is her most accurate one,
She got grassley at 12 and his final was 12.1. That is a $$$ result.
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Can we confirm whether the lunatic resides in Hawaii but votes in N.C.?
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I believe Suffolk/USA Today will be dropping a PA poll today.
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My concern regarding the lunatic is trumps decision to golf was not a public event? So, it was not publicly known and by all accounts was a last minute decision.
So, how did the lunatic know that trump would be there?
Who tipped him off?
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Regarding the Iowa poll, when it was +18, it only had Biden at 32%, which is why it was +18%. Trump was at 50% in that poll with 18% undecided!!! In the current one Trump only drops 3% to 47%, but he has Komrade at 43%…with still 10% undecided or with someone else.
That means that disaffected Dems have gone back to Komrade. I suspect she won’t get much more than 43% in the general election and Trump carries the state by 10% at least.
The ferver to get away from this administration and return to Trump is greatest in the midwest and South.
The Komrade team (meaning the Media) is trying to paint this Komrade Kamala surge putting Texas and Florida in play, but there is no way in hell she’s sniffing Trump here in Texas or Florida.
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Farming is in a depression.
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Not sure if this was a just release or not.
Post-debate ARIZONA poll by Trafalgar
🟥 Trump: 47.1% (+1.6)
🟦 Harris: 45.5%
🟪 Other: 2.9%
——
Trends
Aug. 8 – 🔴 Trump +1.2 (with RFK Jr)
Sep. 13 – 🔴 Trump +1.6
——
AZ Senate
🟦 Gallego: 47.2% (+4.2)
🟥 Lake: 43.0%
🟪 Other: 4.4%
—— 279 (0.7/3.0) | 9/11-12 | 1,088 L
PaPa Scooter
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I have to admit that was a scumbag text by the wife of a true absolute worthless scumbag Vindman. He’s a disgrace to the uniform and should never have been allowed to wear it.
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He is also a grifter, Vic.
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I put the over and under on the number of future assassination attempts on Trump’s life in the fifty days left before the election at two…..but that’s probably just because I live in a “dark world”. Multiple assassination attempts? Naw, nothing to see here.
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Would-be Trump ass*ssin Ryan Routh has been charged with:
➡️ Possession of a firearm while a convicted felon
➡️ Possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number
Routh is currently NOT facing any charges relating directly to the ass*ssination attempt.
He is set to be formally arraigned in two weeks.
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Once he is turned over to the feds he will be Epsteined. Maybe the locals can get something out of him before they lose custody.
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People have called Routh a “nut job” because he was carrying around backpacks stacked with tile near his propped up rifle. This morning someone explained the tile was a “poor man’s” version of bullet protection from incoming fire, like the SS. He appeared to be trying to cover his bases ahead of time. Also, how he was aware of Trump being where he was, since it was a last minute scheduling of his time, deserves extra scrutiny.
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Routh’s reference to “democracy being on the ballot” in a recent post – a frequent slogan of the Dems – seemingly doesn’t meet the press’s qualifications of Dems “inciting violence.” However, the mention of cat-eating in Springtown dominated Sunday’s news shows, in peppering Vance with accusations of R’s inciting violence in that small migrant-overrun town in OH. The bias in the news media appears to have reached lethal proportions since Trump entered the national stage.
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Janzam: Trump’s rhetoric is so over the top. He is a threat to democracy. We all know it. It is his own doing.
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Why would any liberal want to assassinate Trump. Vance is way worse.
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I have to admit that VictrC is a scumbag
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I’d fight Jack Poso if I met him on the street.
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If he wonders why there has been assassination attempts against him I suggest he examine his own rhetoric. It is truly toxic at times.
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Yeah, Trump needs to tone down his rhetoric. That’s the problem. LOL
Take your meds, moron. You are making a fool out of yourself.
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Reporter: Does Ryan Routh have any ties to Martin County?
(SheriffSnyder: “The answer to my knowledge, the answer is no. I think what we’re finding out is he’s not from this area…”
“Which, of course, raises the bigger question, how does a guy from not here get all the way to Trump International, realize that the president, former president of the United States, is golfing and is able to get a rifle in that vicinity?”
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He just happened to be in the neighborhood squirrel hunting, Tina. Who living in Hawaii doesn’t just happen to be set up with a rifle 200 yards from the former President in Florida. Besides, according to Paul, Trump deserves to die….you know, because of Trump’s rhetoric. He brought it on himself. Yep
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Yes, lives in Hawaii, and “voted” in N.C.
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I guess this Routh character just got tired of the waiting for his friends the Iranians to take out Trump. You know. The old adage “if you want something done just do it yourself”.
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Adam, the cryer, blames trump.
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PENNSYLVANIA VTR REG STATISTICS
9/9-9/16: D +9023, R +13741, Ind +6606
9/2-9/16: D +12213, R +19483, Ind +10362
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A belated different post debate perspective:
Scott Adams
@ScottAdamsSays
I’m revising my debate scoring. My first impression was a tie, which I called a Harris victory. But the only thing I recall about the debate today is “They’re eating the dogs.” Visual. Scary. Viral. Memorable. Repeatable. And directionally correct in terms of unchecked immigration risk. It’s the strongest play of the election. Trump won the debate. I gotta stop underestimating his game. Trump had no base hits in the debate but his long ball is still rising. Incredible.
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Scott Pressler, actively involved in the populist grass roots, has made registering R’s in PA a personal mission of his. A number of PA counties have been turned around by his efforts alone – going from dem dominated to R dominated. Turning Point has also pivoted from just getting people to vote, but to registration of more R voters and banking their vote early.
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I think he should have said it once at the debate and not again. The media is using it to paint him as a racist, as they always do, and it seems to be deflating his numbers rather than drawing attention to the rampant illegal immigration problem in this country created by Komrade Kamala.
It’s sad that this is where we are at in this country.
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Vic, while I have very mixed feelings about the cat/dog claim, it has put the spotlight on Springfield’s plight of being overwhelmed by the sudden influx of illegal migrants – ones who aren’t integrating well into the community. This town probably exemplifies what many such rust belt towns are going through, dismissed and ignored by not only the Biden/Harris administration but also by the democrat-captured media. In the meantime Trump is considering making a stop in Springfield, which will shine even more light onto their frustrations, putting the press’s comments into a visual/testimonial fact-checking equivalent.
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So the drat lunatic hid in the bushes for 12 hours? Nkgofh saw anything
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I have to say that I think if he had just stopped with bringing it to people’s attention after the first time, it would have been a winning issue. Instead, in true Trump fashion, he’s beaten it into the ground, over and over again, and opened himself up to this criticism. It didn’t help that 12 poor boys members march. I know, its 12. The media won’t say that it was a group of loons…they make it seem like there are thousands.
As of now, its another unforced error. Not everyone is like the populists who support him. Most of America still gets their news from the MSM, and believe them.
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”For years, Democrats and the corporate media have acted like Trump is the single greatest threat to human civilization. He is simultaneously the living embodiment of Adolf Hitler, Covid-19, and toxic masculinity, so the narrative goes.
We shouldn’t be surprised that there was a second attempt on his life; we should be surprised there have only been two.”
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The drat lunatic claims he only makes $3000 a month and owns two trucks worth little. Yet, the drat lunatic did a lot of travel from Hawaii/nc/euro (Ukraine).
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Unfortunately no matter what Trump says, or how he says it, “opens him up for criticism” by the media. If he pulls back and modifies his comments there will still be nasty remarks about his remarks. Trump basically represents a change in power, and direction of that power, back to the people that our dem-dominated institutions don’t want.
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ugh. I wish these people would stop trying to tie it somehow to Ukraine. All they are doing is diminishing the importance of the fact that there was a second assassination attack in less than 60 days.
Give up this obsessive hatred for Ukraine.
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When it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it most probably is a duck.
If a guy has been in a commercial defending Ukraine and the Nazi element prominent there, has traveled to Ukraine, perhaps been battle-trained in Ukraine, contacted the president of Ukraine directly etc., etc., then Ukraine is definitely intertwined in his behavior and possible radicalization.
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ugh. Nazis in Ukraine. Really.
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We need an investigation to look into connections, if any, between loon 1 and loon 2.
Any congressional ties between congress critters and loon 2
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Put up or shut up.
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My 2 cents someone funded drat assassins #1 and #2.
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Former President of Russia? Don’t they usually die when the become “former?”
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Putina and Jan are really excited today.
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LOL of course Medvedev wants to tie the assassination to Ukraine so it will take eyes off of the horribleness of what Russia has done in and to Ukraine and its people.
Every time we get something that could be an advantage…ugh I don’t even want to write it.
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I actually think the connections between assassin 1 and 2 = mullahs.
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The grifter would not be so stupid and Russia will of course blame Ukraine.
However, #2 is tied to Ukraine nazis and anti semitism. In short, a modern drat.
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Nobody saw the sniper nest over 12 hours?
No one?
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Sure would have been nice if Erick Prince handled the “investigation” and not the fib.
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”ugh. Nazis in Ukraine. Really.”
The Azov Battalion is a far right group with the Ukrainian National Guard who have known neo-Nazi leanings. This group is identified as one Routh mingled with while he was in Ukraine.
However, simply questioning the sympathetic ties Routh had with Ukraine and the Azov Battalion are met with disdain? Is there anything associated with Ukraine that might make a person pause their one-way perspective of Ukraine, and dig deeper into the underpinnings of what or who is driving this war? Of course Putin ignited combat by invading Ukraine. But, usually there is so much more contributing to sustaining a war for almost 3 years than the initial invasion, especially when peace negotiations were offered at the get-go.
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especially when peace negotiations were offered at the get-go.”
You mean unconditional surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty was offered.
Fixed it for the Putin lapdog.
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Putina and Jan are really excited today.”
They have lots of Kremlin talking points, that always excites them.
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There were no peace negotiations..
-free passer
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but the former president of Russia is admitting Ukraine was behind the attempt in Trump.”
LOL
The former President of RUSSIA IS ADMITTING”
And some idiot actually quotes that.
Ok, I will “admit” Janzam and Tina are Putin lapdogs.
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I wonder how the free passers were going to balance the loon assassin and ties to nazis and anti semitism.
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There were no peace negotiations.”
Exactly.
If the “negotiations” were for Ukraine to turn over its sovereign territory and be “demilitarized” that meant unconditional surrender and becoming a vassal state of Russia.
Ukraine, Biden and the Europeans were certainly smart in sh-t canning that “good deal”.
That was no “negotiation”, that was a surrender proposal.
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to nazis and anti semitism”
Ask Putin.
Zelensky is a Jew, btw.
Calling him anti-semitic is a joke only a stupid Putinista could come up with.
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Wut?
https://x.com/PhilHollowayEsq/status/1835762249455337780?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Good reading for Tina and Janzam (who btw IS an anti-semite)
The Russian Federation’s Ongoing Aggression Against Ukraine
As delivered by Ambassador Michael R. Carpenter
to the Permanent Council, Vienna
September 21, 2023
Last Friday at sunset, the Jewish people of Ukraine began to celebrate Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. The day before, President Zelenskyy celebrated together with some of the members of Ukraine’s vibrant Jewish community. He met with Jewish leaders, including Rabbi Meir Stambler and nearly three dozen other rabbis, and presented awards to 15 Jewish-Ukrainian soldiers. In Kharkiv, the city’s Chief Rabbi, Moshe Moskovitz, who presides over the largest synagogue in Ukraine, told an LA Times reporter: “In darkness we find light… Our enemy wants us to be hiding and crying in the dark… But for centuries we have celebrated our holidays in time of war and hardship – this is so meaningful to us.”
Mr. Chair, why am I even raising this? Because one of the biggest lies on the planet is that President Zelenskyy is presiding over a “Nazi regime.” That’s what the Russian Federation keeps repeating in this Council. Every week. The logic of this Russian propaganda is supposed to work something like this: Ukrainians are Nazis, and since Nazis are evil, Russia must get rid of them. So, you are left with the following statement: because they are evil, Russia must get rid of all Ukrainians in Ukraine. That, dear colleagues, is the claim that the Russian Federation is trying to sell to you every week.
Let me start by quoting Russian President Vladimir Putin. On June 16th, he argued, “I have a lot of Jewish friends. They say that Zelenskyy is not Jewish, that he is a disgrace to the Jewish people. This is not a joke and not an attempt at irony, because today neo-Nazis, Hitler’s disciples, have been put on a pedestal as heroes of Ukraine.”
Mr. Putin has since doubled down on such racist lies. On September 5th, Putin claimed, “Western curators have put a person at the head of modern Ukraine – an ethnic Jew, with Jewish roots, with Jewish origins… And this makes the whole situation extremely disgusting, in that an ethnic Jew is covering up the glorification of Nazism and covering up those who led the Holocaust in Ukraine at one time.”
This cynical attempt to manipulate and distort the history of the Holocaust to further Russia’s aim of seizing and subjugating the democratic state of Ukraine is an affront to the victims and survivors of Nazism, and indeed to all of us. And it is not just the Russian President who is obsessed with this false narrative about people’s Jewishness. Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov said on September 6th, “when Blinken, a Jew, is coming to visit Zelenskyy, a Jew, to discuss the actions of de-facto Nazi troops against Russia, that speaks volumes.”
Read the whole thing.
https://osce.usmission.gov/the-russian-federations-ongoing-aggression-against-ukraine-65/
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Tina and Janzam should be ashamed of spewing anti-semitic Russian propaganda here.
But they are not.
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Baby steps.
No peace proposal to a peace proposal.
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We will soon get free passer confirmation that the former pm killed the deal, which zelensky wanted in the first place.
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How many journalists knew assassin #2?
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BTW, the real time “heroes” of yesterday’s shooting was a SS person who saw the rifle, shot at and missed the alleged almost-assailant, a bystander who phoned in a description of Routh sending a photo of his car’s license plate, and the local sheriffs who immediately caught the guy. But, how could a guy be hiding for 12 hours on the golf course, let alone be around the perimeter of anywhere Trump is going? Why aren’t drones being used to reinforce the safety of a person already compromised by so many threats? Something isn’t right with our Intel departments for letting such back-to-back mishaps keep happening, without evidence being produced about the dozen mistakes made at Butler, the last failed attempt to take out Trump.
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An act of good diplomacy!
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
@ZelenskyyUa
I am glad to hear that
@realDonaldTrump
is safe and unharmed. My best wishes to him and his family. It’s good that the suspect in the assassination attempt was apprehended quickly. This is our principle: the rule of law is paramount and political violence has no place anywhere in the world. We sincerely hope that everyone remains safe
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im
more apt to believe the Iranian connection to the assassin than he did it because of his love, or was directed by, Unraine
he was an avid pro-Palestinian/Hamas suppowrwe
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The only charges against assassin #2 are federal gun char (so far)
no attempted murder or assassination of Potus
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Jews are welcome in Ukraine.
A Pew Research Poll which was published on March 27, 2018, found that Ukrainians are far more likely to welcome Jews as fellow citizens than the populations of neighboring countries are, including the populations of all of the other countries in Eastern Europe.
But they are leaving Russia due to repression. About 20% have left since Russia invaded Ukraine
https://theconversation.com/jews-are-leaving-russia-again-is-history-repeating-itself-189090
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No peace proposal to a peace proposal.”
There was no peace proposal, only an invitation to surrender.
The statement that “Zelensky wanted it” is trash.
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Tina is disappointed Zelensky didn’t surrender.
What a surprise!
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Pennsylvania Quiz:
If you ignore the serial tracking polls of Morning Consult and Redfield/Wilton (both of which are trending toward Trump) and look at only all the other polls, how many polls has Harris led out of the last 16 polls of PA?
A) 3 of 16
B) 1 of 16
C) 7 of 16
D) 9 of 16
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The answer is B, 1 out of 16, a Spry Strategies poll done a month ago that had Harris up 1 point.
My point is that Trump has a very slight edge in PA. And given the fact that NC and GA have been trending back into Trump’s column, nearly outside the MoE, it means that with NC, GA, and PA, Trump would be at 270 EVs.
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This does not matter. The national polls show Kamala up 5. I promoted this poll all yesterday.
-free oasser
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
50m
Bigger than the border, bigger even than the economy?
Which candidate represents a “fresh start and new direction” and which represents “more of the same?”
Trump – Fresh Start +13
Harris – More of the Same +21
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it means that with NC, GA, and PA, Trump would be at 270 EVs.”
Nice, but no margin for error and very little to overcome the MOF.
In my estimation, if Trump wants to win PA without worrying about shenanigans in Philly and Allegheny he need to be up by 2 in PA. Same in MI, WI, AZ, NV… less in GA.
I would be more comfortable with a national lead for Harris below 2%. 6 of the last 7 national polls show her with a larger lead than that, although the average is still 1.7. The Atlas poll is the only one showing a Trump lead out of the last 7 and Trump only leads in 3 of the last 12.
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This does not matter. The national polls show Kamala up 5. I promoted this poll all yesterday.”
“Promoted”
Translation: stating the reality.
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DW, why don’t you have an average of only polls that show Trump in the lead just for Tina.
While the rest of us comment on reality, she can celebrate the average that will ALWAYS show Trump ahead.
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Those RAS numbers bode well for the undecideds to come over at the end.
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How many yachts does Zelensky own, Jan? You accepted that, too.
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Zzzzzzzz Zelensky was forced to be invaded? Absurd.
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Here is another way to look at PA. Look at the polls now compared to 2020, per pollster.
Trump “lost” by 80,555 votes in PA. A gap of 1.33 points.
2020 | 2024
Trump/Biden | Trump/Harris
49/47 | 47/46 -1 – Insider Advantage
49/47 | 48/47 -1 – Wick
48/46 | 47/45 =0 – Trafalgar
44/50 | 43/46 +3 – Franklin and Marshall
45/50 | 43/45 +3 – Fox News
44/51 | 47/50 +4 – Quinnipiac
47/50 | 47/46 +4 – Rasmussen
43/49 | 44/46 +4 – Siena/NY Times
45/50 | 47/47 +5 – CNN/SSRS
47/52 | 49/49 +5 – Emerson
43/52 | 46/49 +6 – Morning Consult
42/49 | 45/45 +7 – Redfield and Wilton
45/52 | 48/47 +8 – PPP
44/52 | 50/50 +8 – CBS/YouGov
I find it interesting that the first three are among the most accurate pollsters who work hard to get it right. So I would conclude that each of them being off in favor of Trump by 3 points in 2020 prompted them to make adjustments in the sampling to get more accurate.
They are currently saying the same that they did in 2020, that Trump has a 1 to 2 point lead. But notice the further down the list you go, the less accurate the pollster. And there is an increasing shift in the polling away from Biden’s gap in 2020 toward Trump in 2024.
Now some of this might be simply them trying to correct to get it right this time as well, but its more likely that they have picked up movement from 2020, toward Trump, and the top three might have over-corrected a little bit.
The needle doesn’t have to move that much in PA to flip the state red. And with it, goes the election.
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/09/16/martin-county-sheriff-asks-simple-questions-how-did-ryan-routh-know-where-to-be-and-did-he-act-alone/
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“Nice, but no margin for error and very little to overcome the MOF.”
Arizona is currently polling more favorable for Trump than PA, so that allows for a bit more than the 270 for Trump. But of course AZ alone is not enough, and I believe it will be important for Trump to win the election on the east coast and not have to wait for western states to take two weeks to count their ballots.
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agreed DQ. But rest assured if PA, GA and any other state in the blue wall are close, or will go to Trump, they won’t be called until well after AZ and NV close
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I don’t recall this happening in prior political debates, where one side was immediately crowned the winner and then slowly, over a week’s time, such an announcement started eroding, ending up with the loser being called the winner. This appears to be happening in the Harris/Trump debate where more and more pundits and debate watchers are now saying Trump won the debate – Hugh Hewitt being one of the latest to make such a proclamation.
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Apparently the Springfield bomb threats, much like the original Facebook post alleging Haitians eating pets, were hoaxes – all 30-33 of them originating mostly from out of the country. I doubt, though, the corporate media will clean up their false media reporting.
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”How many yachts does Zelensky own, Jan? You accepted that, too.”
Since you continue to obsessively talk about those yachts, just pull that one up (the only one) and repost what it said. My recollection is it was a rumor mentioned in a piece that was then referenced by me, not affirmed in any way. But, of course that doesn’t fit the narrative swimming around in your own head.
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You posted the stories about Zelensky’s yachts to criticize him as an insensitive leader who cared nothing about the suffering of Ukrainians. You used that line of attack several times. Then you had to admit it was BS.
Falling for Russian propaganda over and over does not make you a deep thinker.
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NT. Because I can.
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When Florida is called for Harris, we will know it is over.
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