According to new polls by Trafalgar Group (Arizona: Sept. 11-12; 1,088 LV) and Insider Advantage (Wisconsin: Sept. 11-12; 800 LV)
 | WISCONSIN |
| Trump | 47 |
| Harris | 49 |
 | ARIZONA |
| Trump | 47.1 |
| Harris | 45.5 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Lake | 43 |
| Gallego | 47.2 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
136 responses to “Trump with edge in Arizona, Harris with edge in Wisconsin”
First.
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almost Frist. I guess just Cotton
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Who here thinks Trump can win GA, AZ, PA and NV…Because that is more than enough to stop Komrade Kamala
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I think he can and that scares me.
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Trump’s easiest path is hold NC, flip GA and PA. That’s 270
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Blob Stelter: Image of Kamala Harris as ‘Hope and Change’ is More Important Than Anything She Actually Says
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Rs are suing the Nv sos because he won’t remove illegals be on the voting rolls.
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According to the drats,it is illegal for them to vote.
A ballot will be counted nonetheless.
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In Nate Silver’s latest update he claims that Komrade Kamala is ahead 50.1% to 48.8% for Trump, which is a 1.3% deficit. The latest RCP poll, which doesn’t include the latest poll today has it as 48.7% for Harris to 46.9% for Trump, a difference of 1.8%. So very close.
Silver says this will win Trump 275 Electoral Votes and the Presidency. So for all the doom and gloom of earlier today, Trump still seems to be ahead, ever so slightly, in the race for the Presidency, with a VERY LONG seven weeks to go.
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It’s in the bag…
Hochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, had some big news in their big cookie poll as of Friday morning.
Every four years, they hold a poll where people can buy red cookies or blue cookies–with the candidates’ names on them and the election year–to indicate their choice for president. And the current count in the poll, based on how many have been bought for each candidate, is not looking good for Kamala Harris.
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There are no illegals to remove.
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Lupita will give her opinion in mid October.
I will show her two pieces of paper one with a picture of Trump another with Kamala.
Whichever she eats first will win the election.
She picked Trump in 2016 and 2020 (not her fault, she didn’t know about fraud).
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All illegals need to be removed and sent back home.
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There are no illegals to remove.”
LOL
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Funny
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hmmm.. file didn’t upload
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Most of the efforts end up removing citizens instead of illegals. SO FUCK YOU JASON AND TINA.
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Most of the efforts end up removing citizens instead of illegals.
You are an imbecile.
What “citizens” have been removed?
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Cut this agency’s budget by 2/3rd.
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That is insane if they are really doing that in Springfield. They should be addressing the crime. The change in the way the city functions. What dumping illegals is doing to the school system and people’s lives there.
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There has been plenty of stories of citizens being removed in Texas during these purges.
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There has been plenty of stories of citizens being removed in Texas during these purges.
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VictrC: They are legal American residents in Springfield. They are NOT eating Cats. And there is concern about hate crimes. FUCK YOU, VictrC. I HAVE TAKEN MY MEDS.
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FUCK YOU UP THE WADSJLKASDfjSIOENDSGdfhpd’kzjnfdlkjgnf YOU LITTTLE SHIT TIINA>
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Im glad you took your meds.
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Get some rest. Goodnight yall
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Good morning. GFY
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Selzer says Trump up only 4 points in Iowa. This after they spiked a poll three weeks ago showing him winning in a blowout. They did this in 2020 where they showed a tight race now, and then the final poll was the accurate blowout.
I can start a new thread for it later today
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If this poll is accurate, this is Brutal for Trump.
IOWA GE: @jaselzer/@DMRegister
🟥 Trump: 47% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
Last poll vs Biden (6/14): Trump +18 12 (2.8/3.0) | 656 LV | 9/8-11 | ±3.8%
Scooterboy
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Mark Mitchell Rasmussen Reports
Trump +18 in Iowa to Trump +4 has got to be one of the most stunning and ridiculous Democrat comebacks in the history of politics.
I’ve polled over 11k respondents about Harris, and she just doesn’t poll that differently than Biden.
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ABC/IPSOS
2024 Presidential Election Poll:
Likely Voters
Head-to-Head
🔵Harris 52% {52%} [51%]
🔴Trump 46% {46%} [45%]
Full Field
🔵Harris 51% {51%} [49%]
🔴Trump 46% {46%} [45%]
9/11-13 {8/23-27} 8/9-13
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There has been plenty of stories of citizens being removed in Texas during these purges.”
Hey Paul, are all “citizens” eligible to vote?
Yes or no?
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Steve Deace on X
This poll makes no sense. It has Harris minus-11 favorable, only 42% job approval as VP, and Trump winning independents by 5. Those are horrible cross-tabs for Harris. We have the most registered Republicans in Iowa ever, so if Trump wins Indys by 5 he’s winning Iowa by 8-12.
Scooterboy
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The Selzer Iowa poll does look a little crazy. In comparison, Trump won men in Iowa by 20 in 2020 and lost women by 1. She also included RFKJR in this poll but didn’t include him in the prior released poll.
Tom Bevan: 41-point gender gap in new DMR poll in Iowa. Trump leads Harris by 4, 47-43.
Scooterboy
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New Mexico poll by Research and Polling for @ABQJournal
🟦 Harris: 49% (+10)
🟥 Trump: 39%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 2%
NM independents: Harris 45-23%
——
Favs
Harris: 53-40 (net: +13)
Trump: 42-56 (-14)
——
Sept. 6-13 | 532 LV | ±4.2%
Scooterboy
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We are dooommmmmed.
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Unless we suddenly see one of the campaigns heading to Iowa, I would assume the internals are showing something much different than the Selzer poll.
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Look at Ann’s October pole vs her final number vs the actual final number.
october grassley plus 3.
Ann’s final number 12
Grassley wins by 12.1
look only at her final pole, the rest is sheot.
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The black insurrectionist guy seems like a scam. This is about his whistleblower and abc debate. Seemed screwy.
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B.i. Sounds like a loon. Peddled fake sheot.
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See new postsConversation
Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
The Trump +4 is an actually more bullish result for Trump than her dead heat against Biden in 2020. That said, there’s some serious damage to your credibility when you withhold and spike polls. Iowa was never competitive in 2020, either. Here we go again
@barnes_law
. Shameful.
Last edited
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70.9K Views
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Trump should have taken he debate more seriously and stopped the mean tweets.
-free passer.
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So, if Annie had it as a dead heat in 2020, and it’s plus 4, it is more bullish, as baris suggests.
Looks like the final is trump 12 in Iowa.
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For the life of me, I don’t understand why Trump does these things. Why can’t he just stay on message? Talk about grocery prices, electric bills, housing prices….. you know, the kind of things that people really care about. I don’t understand the need to start these battles. I hope he knows what he’s doing.
Trump:
I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT !!!!!!!
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MAGA polling on X
Iowa Registration Update:
11/2/2020 – R+20,590 (Adv over Dem)
11/1/2022 – R+89,505
9/3/2024 – R+168,005
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The latest ABC/IPSOS poll had it 49-49 among male voters? Even Yahoo/YouGov had it +5 for Trump and Data For Progress (D) even had it +6 for Trump it their latest polls.
Go figure.
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Tell racist Trump and Vance to stop terrorizing legal Haitian Americans in Springfield, Ohio
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tell them to stop terrorizing the people of Springfield and assimilate abs show some respect to the people who allowed them to come to our country
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I’ll tell Trump and Vance to do so.
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Vic/DW – I am at the Phillies game. I am 1-2 in attendance.
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Here is the affidavit…seems legit…let’s see
https://x.com/DocNetyoutube/status/1835358499548602666/photo/1
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it’s fake
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Vomit…
Kamala Harris’ new climate director said she is hesitant to have children because of climate change threats.
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Tina. Why do you say it’s a fake
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Everything points to the affidavit being legit.
“The whistleblower not only made sure his affidavit was dated the day before the debate, he sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson postmarked return receipt the day before the debate and will agree to testify in front of Congress if Mike Johnson requests. He has also unopened certified mail and unopened Fed Ex sent to himself to provide as evidence. It’s time to blow up the bias press for good and start over.”
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Maybe the Gateway Pundit is jealous and saying it is fake.
It might well be, but nothing so far indicates that.
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lol, why do you think it’s real?
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tbh. Doesn’t matter if it’s real. Too long after the debate, no one whose voting Harris is going to care and the mainstream media will bury it
just noise at this point
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It’s not how an affidavit is written. Bitter can opine.
There is a claim that the whistleblower has died via car crash. The site is little known and contaminated with viruses.
Please let’s not get side tracked here with bs
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The guy held onto it too long. It was going to be released, then held back, then releases, then held back.
All garbage.
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again.
Most people already assume she got the questions ahead of time
most people already believe she demanded Trump be fact checked and she not be
most people already realize ABC was in the tank for her but nothing with will erase the debate and that’s all people will remember. Trump couldn’t help but get flustered and be who he is
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Exactly and this one’s no discount the isssues with the moderators. There fact checks were bogus. Trump was right.
You also had the so called debate winner call for another debate because she failed to move the needle. Undecideds broke against her.
Then you had the so called “winner of the debate” go to Pa and have he disastrous interview. While the reporter ave her soft ball questions, she blew it.
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This is how she started her day in pa.
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https://x.com/realchrisrufo/status/1835354219454533862?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1835354219454533862%7Ctwgr%5Eb9f8c407da4b39324a0ef610c6a98a422310c3af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F09%2F15%2Fseptember-15th-2024-presidential-politics-resistance-day-1336%2F
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I personally plan to do whatever I can to make Harris win. If it is giving answers, tearing down signs, destroying Republican ballots in the mail. I will do it.
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I’d go further, but the FBI was at my door once and the probing was uncomfortable.
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Paul sounds as crazy as Dondero. All that’s left is for him to call for people to crap on their neighbors lawn.
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Scooter: I have done gone there long ago.
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Paul, if you conduct yourself, in such a deranged fashion in order to elect someone as corrupt as Harris, even meds obviously can’t help you.
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GUN SHOTS FIRED NEAR DONALD TRUMP🚨
President Trump’s campaign just released this statement.
“President Trump is safe following gunshots in his vicinity. No further details at this time.”
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Where are you getting info about the shots fired?
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All over X
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Trump campaign also posted it as I noted in original post.
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I read what I could what was posted on the aforementioned affidavit. It seemed legit as much as a reader like me could tell. What was interesting was the podium detail, making Harris’s smaller to compensate for the height difference. I earlier felt there was something suspect about those podiums, but couldn’t put my finger on what was done to alter them.
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Donald Trump Jr.
Again Folks!
SHOTS FIRED at Trump golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Am AK-47 was discovered in the bushes, per local law enforcement . The Trump campaign has released a statement confirming President Trump is safe.
A suspect has reportedly been apprehended.
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That’s troubling, scooter. I hope more clarification is made as to whether or not Trump was a target.
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looking for you in this barn burner of a game Bitter. Is it 2024 or 1964???
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I am behind home plate….at the highest level.
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I jinxed it.
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The shots fired is being picked up by other news media:
”The New York Post reports: “Two people exchanged gunfire outside of Trump International Golf Course West Palm Beach. The shooters were targeting each other, and the gunfire was not targeting Trump, the sources said.”
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Thank goodness that there are no Americans in combat zones.
Top ISIS commanders in Iraq killed in raid that left 7 Americans injured (msn.com)
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CNN is reporting differently than the New York Post.
CNN- Officials believe the shots fired at Trump International Golf Club were intended for former President Donald Trump, according to sources familiar on the matter.”
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scooter – the coincidence of a firearm being discharged while Trump was on or leaving the golf course favors CNN’s coverage more than the NYPosts, IMO. However, I hate thinking about yet another assassination attempt…..
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According to CNN; several Shots were fired in the direction of Former U.S. President Donald J. Trump, with Secret Service Agents having returned Fire in the direction of where the Shots occurred from as the Suspect fled the Area in a Vehicle. Witnesses provided an Accurate Description of both the Suspect and Vehicle, which were then stopped by Local Law Enforcement, who discovered a Semi-Automatic Rifle, Backpack, and Go-Pro Camera.
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I bet Tina will believe the affidavit now.
Black Insurrectionist–I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS
@DocNetyoutube
Breaking: I have agreed to put the Gateway Pundit in touch with the attorney for the whistleblower at ABC. In return for Gateway Pundit keeping the whistleblower identity secret, It is my belief that an interview will be made whereas the Gateway Pundit promises to push ABC for answers on the September 10th Debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
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President trump was shot at (per Hannitys report).
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Frankly, I am disappointed with the polling, even the polling that shows Trump tied in battleground states.
This race should be like Nixon-McGovern or close to it. At least GHWB-Dukakis. Kamala is a freaking airhead communist, let’s get real. She should be losing by 10 nationally.
Trump +4 in IA or +3 in NC is scary. -10 in NM, a state being hit hard by illegal immigrants? -5 in a bunch of national polls?
Trump is the same guy who was leading Biden in a big way. The difference is Kamala. Do people really like her that much better than Biden. Really?
Call me doom and gloom if you want, but these polls suck. I hope they are agenda polling, although I doubt it for Trafalgar and Rasmussen.
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According to Fox News, Trump was getting ready to putt when the incident unfolded”
Ahhh, maybe someone had big money on the match and needed him to miss it.
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I missed the shooting but the Phillies had a walk off win.
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CNN says the SS fired back, so i doubt they. would do that if they didn’t think there was incoming fire.
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Biden is a zombie. Harris is alive and functioning. The Trump haters can now vote for somebody likely to live to 2025.
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The whistleblower story is on Redstate, they must have vetted it
https://redstate.com/beccalower/2024/09/15/breaking-abc-whistleblower-says-harris-campaign-allegedly-restricted-the-scope-of-debate-questions-n2179354
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“the Trump haters can now vote for somebody likely to live to 2025
They would have voted for Biden too. There was not one of them that said they wouldn’t support Biden.
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The idea that Trump haters would vote for Harris but not for Biden is ridiculous. The whole meme about “Trump hater” is that they would vote for John Wayne Gacy over Trump.
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“Am AK-47 was discovered in the bushes,”
So, the Bushes were involved?
****************
Actually I heard that it was a Haitian illegal immigrants and they found dog and cat bones in the back seat.
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Whistleblower story on Instapundit.
Redstate and Instapundit are mainstream conservative sites, not given to conspiracy theories.
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can’t believe the Mets lost the last two games. With lindor likely to be out for awhile I can’t see them making the playoffs. Phillies played well. It was a good series. Playoff atmosphere
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so what is the big bombshell from the whistleblower
podium heights?
don’t ask certain questions?
MSM won’t report on it. Trump haters will spin it as something Trump did bad and the average American won’t hear about it
is there anything else I missed. Saying that honestly. Please tell me
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There are other explanations for Harris doing better than Biden. None of them good.
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Podium heights werr known days ahead of time.
The fact checks were not allowed and the three media people colluded into changing this rule on their own. Their fact checks were also wrong.
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so what is the big bombshell from the whistleblower”
Well, it is not only the podium.
They agreed to not cover certain subjects. That alone should be a scandal.
But I guess we are going from “the scandal is fake” (Tina) to its not scandalous enough (Vic)
The MSM won’t cover it but not because its not a big deal, it is. They won’t cover it because it damages Kamala.
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They missed? Pony tail brigade again?
Charlie Kirk
@charliekirk11
·
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BREAKING: The USSS has confirmed that it was Secret Service agents who fired at the suspect (as opposed to shots being exchanged or the suspect initiating the gunfire). The suspect dropped his rifle and immediately fled, per Fox News.
3
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Vic, my comment from Charlie Kirk is in moderation.
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“The affidavit is fake” (Tina)
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Predictit
Harris 57 Trump 46
Polymarket
Trump 50 Harris 49
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Don’t worry, the fib take over the “investigation.
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So, how did the shooter get into the golf course?
How did he know trumps golf schedule?
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Atlas Intel with a lead nationally for Trump is a good poll. Trump seems to be holding okay in NC.
Flip GA and PA and it’s 270.
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The General
@GeneralMCNews
·
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BREAKING: Florida State Representative John Snyder reports that the suspect in the Trump golf course shooting is a white male in his mid-60s.
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Tina – I released your post.
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Thanks, I didn’t want to bother you as I thought you were at a game.
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I was. Phillies won. Trump not shot. Good day.
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The Intel poll keeps Kamala at under 2 pt lead but she is still at 49% average on RCP.
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MSM only talks about “Harris opens widest lead yet” that is the meme for today.
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the most accurate pollsters from 2020 have Trump ahead nationally, or show a very close race.
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NT loaded for 6:00.
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Well, that narrows it down to only a few million in Florida.
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I bet he goes by 3 names.
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it’s always three names
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Looks younger than 58.
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Let’s hope his name is not Abdul.
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wtf are the secret service doing
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the most accurate pollsters from 2020 have Trump ahead nationally, or show a very close race.”
Unfortunately, 90%+ of the population doesn’t know that.
What they know is that Kamala has the “biggest lead yet” over Trump.
This has already made more people think she will win than Trump, often a self fulfilling prophecy.
Maybe you are happy with the polling, but it seems like we are a long way from the good polls Trump was seeing against Biden.
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New Casey ads hits McCormick for mispronouncing “Yuengling”
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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I agree with recruiting people to fight for Ukraine!
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I am in custody but I have phone with HHR on it that I still use. It doesn’t look good for me here.
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