Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
106 responses to “Life without DW’s polls – Day 1”
https://nypost.com/2024/08/29/us-news/the-150-billion-problem-cost-of-migrant-crisis-to-us-taxpayers-could-be-billions-higher-than-reported-expenses-in-many-states/
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segundo
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From the last thread:
Emerson just dropped swing state polls. They’re all available at RCP. The most surprising number was Sen. Baldwin only +1 over Hovde in WI. There are several other Senate numbers, all favorable to Democrats. Here are the presidential numbers:
AZ Trump +3
MI Harris +3
GA Harris +1
WI Trump +1
NV Harris +1
PA Tied
NC Trump +1
Summary: It’s super tight.
If each wins the ones they lead in these polls, then whoever breaks the tie in PA would win it.
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Tina – I approved your post about Baris but it will appear in the last thread. If you post it again here and it is caught in the filter, let me know.
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-Both of the people who just said that about Gateway Pundit – could easily have gone there, made a quick list of the stories there which agree with their view of it, and then posted that list here……but they didn’t.”
LOL
I guess NYC, when he served a turd sandwich, keeps eating it hoping he will find some corned beef somewhere in it.
Gateway Pundit is a garbage site. NYC’s theory is that you should rummage through it because hey there might be something there that isn’t a conspiracy theory or a lie.
No thanks. But I wish NYC luck in his dumpster hunt.
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Thanks, Bl. No wonder Dw did not know what I was referencing. Anyway, I a, not sure if it’s another series of battle ground poles from another pollster, or the ones Jeff mentioned above. Baris was vague.
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Also every hit on these garbage sites is money in the pocket of the conspiracy nuts who thank idiots like NYC, Tina and Janzam for their support.
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Cash Cow will like this story….
“A rogue water buffalo that was destined to be slaughtered by its owner near Pleasant Hill escaped its fate on Saturday and has been missing for the fourth day in a row.
The water buffalo, which has now become an unexpected celebrity and given the nickname “PHill” by residents, was about to be shot before jumping on its owner and escaping, a deputy says in body camera footage of officers’ attempts to corral the loose animal. “
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This is Pleasant Hill, IA.
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-Both of the people who just said that about Gateway Pundit – could easily have gone there, made a quick list of the stories there which agree with their view of it,”
And for NYC’s information, the premise is if you have a site where you are willing to post conspiracy theories of any type without, as NYC himself said, doing due diligence, then you lose legitimacy as a source anyone should trust. Nothing wrong with doing that, you can have a perfectly “legitimate” garbage site for conspiracy theorists and for entertainment value. I watch Hunt for Bigfoot sometimes for the entertainment value, but I don’t post here that the knock in the woods captured by the “investigators” must mean Bigfoot exists.
The problem is when Tina and Janzam regurgitate the entertainment/conspiracy BS here as if it was real.
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I find it hard to believe that Trump does better in PA than he does in GA.
I guess the good news in these polls is that he is competitive in WI, PA and MI.
The bad news is he seems to be struggling in NC and GA.
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I watched Expedition X. They did not find the Loch Ness monster but they did have a sonar reading they could not explain AND a noise detected by an underwater microphone that they could not explain.
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I saw it too.
You forgot to mention they found a “trench” that the monster would consider hiding out in, if there is a monster of course.
This is significant because it could explain why the monster is so difficult to detect.
In the Bigfoot show, they found a cave that a Bigfoot could have used.
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I remember when Geraldo Rivera found a coke bottle in Al Capone’s vault. I think the obvious conclusion is Capone drank Coke.
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@amuse
@amuse
The Biden-Harris regime tried to stop
@realDonaldTrump
from attending the 3rd Anniversary of the Afghanistan withdraw at Arlington National Cemetery. House Speaker Mike Johnson had to intervene to ensure that former President Donald Trump could attend a ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery for the third anniversary of the Afghanistan withdrawal, after Gold Star families, who lost loved ones during the withdrawal, invited Trump to lay a wreath in honor of the 13 service members killed. The families faced difficulties from Arlington National Cemetery, which initially restricted the time they could be there and blocked Trump from joining them at their children’s gravesites. Rep. Michael McCaul, contacted by Gold Star parents, reached out to Johnson, who resolved the issue, ensuring Trump could participate in the ceremony. h/t
@henryrodgersdc
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Did Kamala lie about working at McDonalds? Seems unlikely given that she would know it could be checked. But McDonald’s failure to confirm it is strange, you would think they would want this to be known, free publicity.
Further, McDonald’s has not responded to multiple requests for comment on confirming her employment. As the Free Beacon notes, that’s a marked change from how fast-food chains have previously acknowledged presidential candidates who once worked for them.”
It could just be that since flipping burgers is not that prestigious she didn’t list it. I washed dishes in college, I didn’t list it on any job applications.
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The Reckoning
@sethjlevy
Keep clear what Halpern said. Right now Kamala only has a lead on paper… But by mid September it will be clear that lead isn’t real.
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It’s clear now.
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Biden’s beitch is trying to torpedo the save act.
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The rinos want illegals to vote. Disgusting pos.
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The rinos want illegals to vote.”
Is that what Gateway Pundit says?
Could you please list ONE Republican who says he/she/it wants illegals to vote?
Should be easy.
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Walt worked for Hannibal. Obviously, he left that off his job application when he started working in Rome a century later.
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Tina’s list of RINOS is huge.
Should be easy to get a quote from at least one stating they want illegals to vote.
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Irony meter explodes as Jason posts story about getting out the vote for Trump.
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Biden’s beitch”
Was Biden’s beitch appointed by Trump?
A friend wants to know.
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In yesterday’s pole of Michigan it is tied. Yet, those that analyzed this pole indicate, it’s drat plus 15 and trump carries indies by 56 points. De noted that these poles are bad
Political Polls
@PpollingNumbers
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#New General Election poll – Michigan
Trump 50% 
Harris 50% ActiVote #N/A – 400 LV – 8/28
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bl another comment is in moderation on the Michigan pole
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Irony meter explodes as Jason posts story about getting out the vote for Trump”
Why?
In the first place, getting the vote out for Trump helps the other races too.
Second, I am glad Elon Musk is involved in the campaign.
Third, I was going to vote for Trump until he chose Vance. I hope he wins anyway.
Fourth, GFY.
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https://redstate.com/wardclark/2024/08/28/ga-secstate-brad-raffensperger-in-hot-water-over-books-claims-about-gop-election-volunteer-n2178645
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Approved.
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I hope he wins anyway.
Zzzzzzzz Hope is not a plan or action. Trump gets no benefit for you hope.
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Btw, I heard Vance on the radio, I guess it was an interview he gave on the Sunday shows being replayed.
The interviewer was very aggressive on abortion, brought up the TX case of the woman who had a rare disease and couldn’t get an abortion, etc. She also kept trying to say Trump opposed distribution of the abortion pill because it says so in Project 2025.
I thought he did a great job explaining Trump’s position and calmly refuting the claims that Trump supported an abortion ban or distribution of the pill. He said look, this case in TX is not representative, it’s one in a million, and I don’t oppose special consideration of very extreme cases, but the issue here is late term abortions, etc.
Vance is an articulate guy and I think he has become very comfortable responding to the “gotcha” interviews. Unfortunately, I don’t find his isolationist views acceptable in a VP candidate. Both can be true.
I know, I know, some here will say that “I don’t care what happens to Ukraine” does not make him an isolationist. I beg to disagree.
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Zzzzzzzz Hope is not a plan or action. Trump gets no benefit for you hope.”
Oh well. I will have to live with that.
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Thanks bl.
dw noted that the acti poles are bad.
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Winning odds on Polymarket, swing states
Swing State Odds (% Chance of Winning):
Trump 60-49% Georgia
Trump 61-39% North Carolina –
Trump 61-39% Arizona –
Trump 55-45% Nevada –
Trump 53-47% Pennsylvania –
Trump 51-49% Wisconsin –
Harris 57-43% Michigan –
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Swing State Odds (% Chance of Winning):
“Trump 60-49% Georgia”
With double voting in GA, I think this is about right.
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I am taking out my technology frustrations on the spotted lantern flies. Have been killing hundreds a day. Killed about 100 this morning, just on the deck. I call it the deck of death.
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Post
See new postsConversation
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
Swing States poll by Fabrizio Ward (R) MICHIGAN
Trump: 48% Harris: 46% MI Senate Slotkin: 43% Rogers: 43% ——
PENNSYLVANIA Trump: 47% Harris: 46% PA Senate Casey (inc): 46% McCormick: 43% ——
WISCONSIN Harris: 49% Trump: 45% WI Senate Baldwin (inc): 48% Hovde: 43% ——
#141 (1.7/3.0) | 8/19-21 | 400 LVs per state https://t.co/4vyPb3D4FY
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That GA odds was supposed to be 60-39%.
That being said the odds on candidates don’t always add up because they are different markets.
Right now Predict is 56-47 Kamala for that reason.
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Yeah, Walt, keep them from going east….
I haven’t seen one lantern fly yet this year.
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I think if you take the polls as a whole they were much better for Trump before Biden quit.
On the other hand the polls are much closer than it was in 2016 or 2020.
In my view, to overcome the MOF in AZ, MI, WI, NV and PA Trump needs to be leading by at least 2 points. I think GA has probably done enough to prevent widespread fraud and the people tempted to do might be more afraid of the scrutiny than before.
Generally, I was more optimistic about Trump winning a month ago than I am now. I see this view reflected in conservative social media too.
The MSM’s power is still strong. Kamala had to quit in 2020 before ONE vote was cast. She didn’t get one primary vote. She was the lowest rated and most unpopular VP ever.
Yet in one month she goes to being even with Trump in the polls if not ahead. This is 100% MSM driven.
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Despite the hype and the rumors of Riker’s Island being prepared for Trump, etc. you can make a killing if you really think he will be sent to jail before the election.
https://polymarket.com/event/trump-jail-before-election-day?tid=1724952168145
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Ben Stiller is excited to vote for Kamala because
‘It’s time for change’
No, you can’t make this sh-t up.
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Nate Silverhack says Trump is now the favorite again.
With the caveat “we advise not worrying much”.
Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.
There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today)”
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Quinnipiac could only muster Harris +1 (49-48) in a national horserace poll. That’s very good for Trump. Maybe the tide is turning.
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Quinnipiac’s final poll in 2020 was Biden 50-39.
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Hi, did faux have an overall pole? Was it a general pole, or of selected states. I saw the individual state numbers. However, there was “overall #” too.
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I thought they may have done a pole of battleground states.
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My wife and I are trying to decide which state to go to where we can conduct fraud on Harris behalf. Probably Wisconsin.
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The other day, a free passer said there was no tension/division with camp Quemala because it was sourced through GP.
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/kamala-harris-frankenstein-campaign-obama-biden?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial
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Yikes
https://x.com/amuse/status/1829249321860030480?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Zzzzzzz Nobody at HHR said that. Either name the poster or admit you are making stuff up again.
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Not going to watch the CNN interview tonight. Something pre recorded and run thru a blender first to smooth out all lumps is worthless to see the real conduct and policies of a candidate.
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Was this from somebody who watched the entire interview or just speculation? I expect it was heavily edited
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CNN said the interview was to be pre-recorded, taped many hours in advance of it’s airing, giving time to be heavily edited, and are refusing (per orders from Harris) not to release the transcript. How can anyone believe the authenticity of this ticket when they are so scripted and saying “no” to any spontaneous question and answer moments. Paul, does that bother you?
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I am watching the cnn interview.
-free passer
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In contrast Trump in MI interacting with automotive workers today, and going on to WI for a Town hall hosted by Tulsi Gabbard. Both open events with lots of unscripted dialogue between him and the audience. It’s alarming how the dem ticket wants to hide its candidates. Why?
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Give a review when the interview is over, Tina.
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What is this free pass of which Tina speaks?
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Trump proposing a policy where all IVF treatments paid for by the govt. or mandated to be paid for by the insurance companies. The reasons because of the need for more children. Not a policy I would support.
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Jan I am not watching it.
Bl- you said it must be edited. You are right. But that is what I took from that tweet as they won’t release the transcript. Remember there are 2 participants which is unusual.
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Again, nobody at HHR said that. Seriously, do you hear voices?
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I’m going to watch it. I can’t have an opinion about it or get a sense of how it could affect the campaign, polls, etc. without watching it. I am by no means relishing the idea of listening to Kamala Harris speak for that long. It will be painful.
With all the scripting they have done, anything short of perfection is a failure.
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Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls
AZ: Tied
NC: Harris +2
GA: Harris +2
MI: Harris +3
NV: Harris +4
PA: Harris +4
WI: Harris +8
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
When a Democrat has a 1-point lead in the POST-CONVENTION Quinnipiac Poll, they’re in deep shit.
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Baris claims she was slurring her words and could,not explain her policy transitions towards trumps policies.
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Most of America would rather have a beer with Harris than Trump.
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The Harris 2024 campaign appears to be using the Biden 2020 playbook – keep policies close to the vest and public appearances at a minimal leading up to the election. Their antidote to muffled public interactions was to manipulate the ballots – cheating and winning. My growing fears is that the dems are only more experienced in creating a fraudulent election that is hard to prove.
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That’s probably a true statement — especially since Trump doesn’t drink beer.
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Watch the Bryon YouTube and you’d change your mind about who you’d want to have a drink with
after this interview let’s compare it to the aggressive Dana Bash interview with JD Vance and see the difference
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
The early clips from the Harris interview are not good. She looks tired, is slurring her words and struggles to explain her sudden support for Trump’s policies.
@DanaBashCNN
, who spent her entire interview with
@JDVance
trying to cover for Walz’s Stolen Valor and her flip-flops, is as soft-ball as it gets for a Democratic President Nominee. CNN is withholding large parts of the interviews. Think these early clips clearly explain why.
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comment on Baris observations from the cn and n clips is in moderation, Mr Bl.
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/08/29/check-picture-of-dana-bash-interviewing-kamala-harris/
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WSJ poll is Harris, 48-47.
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John Solomon has seen the CNN interviewed. He said Harris’s body language, lack of eye contact created a nickname for Harris, “Hesitant Harris,” even though she was seated between two enablers, Bash & Walz. Maybe I’ll watch it after all if I’m around….
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Released
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Thanks.
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
I just saw Comrade Kamala Harris’ answer to a very weakly-phrased question, a question that was put in more as a matter of defense than curiosity, but her answer rambled incoherently, and declared her “values haven’t changed.” On that I agree, her values haven’t changed – The Border is going to remain open, not closed, there will be Free Healthcare for Illegal Aliens, Sanctuary Cities, No Cash Bail, Gun Confiscation, Zero Fracking, a Ban on Gasoline-Powered Cars, Private Healthcare will be abolished, a 70-80% tax rate will be put in place, and she will Defund the Police. America will become a WASTELAND!
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Good response from DJT!
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She is drunk.
https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1829274362572362188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1829274362572362188%7Ctwgr%5Ea858eee4332f0a942c19b65011d30ae36ff1bd30%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F08%2F29%2Faugust-29th-2024-presidential-politics-resistance-day-1319%2F
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Trump has now publicly come out in agreement of late term abortion on NBC and will vote in favor of Amendment 4 in FL. Does he even know what the amendment is about? Is he that stupid to depress the vote in a close election? If he loses to the crazy drunk commie woman it will be a monumental disgrace and only because of his continued stupidity.
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Correction… Trump told NBC he’s voting for a Soros funded “unrestricted abortion” amendment in FL.
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Without parental consent as well. Un freaking believable. What an idiot.
Watching all the “pro life” conservative influencers silence. I am sure there will be some apologists here too.
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Trump just did more damage to his campaign than some Harris idiocy will hurt her.
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see you sure he understood the question
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He could abort his own child on Fifth Ave. and they’d still vote for him.
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Disaster. Optics. Horrible
https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/1829283931373633724?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Yep
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Republicans can’t win over pro-abortionists—Democrats have that ground covered. To sway those voters, focus on other issues they care about instead. Trumps an idiot.
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You can bet serious money the Florida abortion vote will be a question repeated to Trump over and over after saying he will be voting “for abortion” in Florida for more than six weeks.
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Breaking. ABC refuses to change the debate terms, as requested by quemala. (Ny post).
She indicates that the debate terms are not finalized. After todays disastrous Cn and n appear, there may not be a debate.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/you-had-one-job-kamala-blows-pre-taped-interview-walz-right-next-her
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Trump: Abortion is up to the states
Also Trump: Arizona and Florida have gone “too far” and I will continue to fight against pro-life legislation in any state that tries to outlaw child murder or pass anything I deem too earlier…
For those of you who don’t think this matters in a close election you are extremely naive and drink Trump koolaid.
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Look for the free passers to go mass protect for quemala tomorrow.
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Interview caused Trump to collapse in polymarket. Trump now at 49.
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Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
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Replying to @greg_price11
Lmao, so that is their strategy? “My policies are completely different but my values are the same”
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Good answers to all the questions. Too verbose some but that’s something people can get past easily. But she seems smart. In command of the issues
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Like Tina said… the optics did suck. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/10a297c8f617d9c058f96c114c991df4a17279a28ba0299dc97d5d73b0fc4108.jpg
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Did any of the grown ups here watch the Komrade Kamala interview
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I’ll get around to it sometime tonight.
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What is the Supreme of the Land?
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Quemala buses her peeps.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/kamala-harris-buses-people-up-four-hours-away/
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If Trump doesn’t clarify his position on Florida amendment 4 soon he will depress his base. But I don’t expect him too.
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I have accepted the reality a genuine conservative will never become President in my lifetime but Trump better not lose to Harris.
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NT
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