An obscure pollster will poll the field, often with a small sample size over a long period, hold the poll, wait, and then later if its strategic to release it, then release it as a stale poll, hoping most people will not notice the dates. It will falsely suggest the momentum has remained when it has not. I have seen this too many times now for it to be a coincidence. Here is today’s example. Strategies 360 polled Nevada and Arizona back on Aug. 7-14 against 350 RVs in Nevada, and 400 RVs in Arizona. Here is what they say the race looked like three weeks ago:
The more people try to change Jason’s mind the more he will stick with not voting for a Trump/Vance ticket. It’s a behavior found in most people – to pull back further from what they are being harangued to do. So, if Bitter were a good lawyer he would try another strategy, instead of hammering away with the same points, reminding one of the definition of insanity.
jason, I get that you didn’t want Vance. Most of us didn’t want him. But you verbalized an ultimatum that you would not vote for Trump if he picked Vance. Trump had the audacity to not listen to you. Your reasons at the time of your ultimatum were tenuous at best. I have not heard anything from Vance himself that suggests his foreign policy is weak.
How many of us have uttered a hasty ultimatum to a spouse or employer or child, only to have to recant later?
Even if Vance has a weak foreign policy, and I don’t see any reason to believe that, we know absolutely that Harris/Walz would be a foreign policy disaster.
So if you were trying to avoid a foreign policy disaster, then your vote would be for Trump/Vance, if you can swallow your pride for a moment over the fact that you uttered a hasty ultimatum that you really should retract. Its okay. We have all done that and no one will think the worse of you for it.
But you don’t want that. Should Vance renege on any of his Ron Paul isolationist agenda, he would gain my vote but lose more votes from the Putinistas and Bunus.
My decision is not based on “issuing an ultimatum that I regret”, it is based on the fact I think Vance’s adoption of Ron Paul’s isolationist agenda is too dangerous to risk putting him a heartbeat from the Presidency.
“Your reasons at the time of your ultimatum were tenuous at best”
They were? That is news to me. My reasons have not changed.
Contrary to what DW alleges, my position has been entirely consistent throughout.
There is still a VP debate to happen. Hopefully the moderators will expose Vance’s support for Putin and make him try to defend it. Maybe he will decide that he will should honor his responsibilities as VP better than he honored them in the Senate and dump the isolationist drivel.
Bitter said hope is not a strategy, but it does spring eternal.
As Bongino says, “Big people do big things” and “Little people do little things.” Voting for Trump isn’t even a big thing, it is the only logical thing to do.
Taking your toys and going home because you didn’t get your way….it doesn’t make you “Big people”
I haven’t heard one thing from Vance that suggests he embraces an isolationist agenda.
Suddenly polling of battleground states has dried up. Non-battleground state polling has never gotten going much at all. But were are on the cusp of the final stretch in this election, and here is the last date in the field by any poll for each of the following battlegrounds:
But was a MONTH long poll, 7/28-8/28 against only 400 likely voters.
and the raw party ID started out at D64 / R20 / I16. Full Stop. Its garbage right there and they should not have tried to salvage it. But they reweighted to D55 / R30 / I15 and they got a tie out of it.
The Geek Squad declared they THINK my laptop is dead. And they are not sure if they can retrieve my files and documents (despite my showing them I can open a task bar using F12). So I bought a Chromebook. Then he says “if we COULD have gotten them, there is no way possible for us to have transferred the files FROM the old one TO the Chromebook.” NOW he tells me…Not real happy with my Chromebook yet.Best Buy guy sells me the Chromebook, plus a Windows Home Office for $179 that the Geek Squad guy in the same building says he will install for me. Take the Chromebook to the Geek guy and he suddenly remembers that Windows Home Office (and Word) cannot be installed in the Chromebook. (Chromebook has a DIFFERENT system that allows me to type documents.)Have to unwind my purchase of Home Office. Clerk at returns station 10 feet away says they don’t do refunds of Microsoft Office purchases, I will have to take it up directly with Microsoft. I protest politely. Said that guy there (pointing to sales clerk who just walked by) sold me the Windows Office because he said it could be installed on the Chromebook. That other guy over there (Geek Squad guy 10 feet away) says it cannot be installed. Manager is called, refunds my purchase, clerk who sold it to me says “my bad, I did not know that.” All is good.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
26 responses to “New polling strategy from the left”
Bitterlaw
August 28, 2024 at 11:26 am
Jason has managed to unite just about everybody at HHR that he should vote for Trump.”
You know what they say, nothing is more stupid than unanimity.
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I kinda agree “I should have voted for Trump”.
Unfortunately, he picked Ron Paul’s agenda for VP.
I do hope he wins without my vote and stays in office until 2028.
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I should move to Pa. so my vote will count.
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The more people try to change Jason’s mind the more he will stick with not voting for a Trump/Vance ticket. It’s a behavior found in most people – to pull back further from what they are being harangued to do. So, if Bitter were a good lawyer he would try another strategy, instead of hammering away with the same points, reminding one of the definition of insanity.
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Zzzzzz…..
The only person who could convince me to vote for this ticket is JD Vance.
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I should move to Pa. so my vote will count.”
You don’t have to. Just request a VBM ballot, you will get one.
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jason, I get that you didn’t want Vance. Most of us didn’t want him. But you verbalized an ultimatum that you would not vote for Trump if he picked Vance. Trump had the audacity to not listen to you. Your reasons at the time of your ultimatum were tenuous at best. I have not heard anything from Vance himself that suggests his foreign policy is weak.
How many of us have uttered a hasty ultimatum to a spouse or employer or child, only to have to recant later?
Even if Vance has a weak foreign policy, and I don’t see any reason to believe that, we know absolutely that Harris/Walz would be a foreign policy disaster.
So if you were trying to avoid a foreign policy disaster, then your vote would be for Trump/Vance, if you can swallow your pride for a moment over the fact that you uttered a hasty ultimatum that you really should retract. Its okay. We have all done that and no one will think the worse of you for it.
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A-holes need to be hammered. Subtlety does not work.
If Jan was a good nurse, she would condemn Putin for murdering, injuring and raping Ukrainians.
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But you don’t want that. Should Vance renege on any of his Ron Paul isolationist agenda, he would gain my vote but lose more votes from the Putinistas and Bunus.
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As I tell my players, hope is not a strategy.
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Sorry, DW, you are barking up the wrong tree.
My decision is not based on “issuing an ultimatum that I regret”, it is based on the fact I think Vance’s adoption of Ron Paul’s isolationist agenda is too dangerous to risk putting him a heartbeat from the Presidency.
“Your reasons at the time of your ultimatum were tenuous at best”
They were? That is news to me. My reasons have not changed.
Contrary to what DW alleges, my position has been entirely consistent throughout.
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There is still a VP debate to happen. Hopefully the moderators will expose Vance’s support for Putin and make him try to defend it. Maybe he will decide that he will should honor his responsibilities as VP better than he honored them in the Senate and dump the isolationist drivel.
Bitter said hope is not a strategy, but it does spring eternal.
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“you uttered a hasty ultimatum that you really should retract”
In the first place, it was not “hasty”. I made that point over several months from the minute Vance was in consideration.
Nothing “hasty” about it.
And maybe you can come up with a reason why I “should retract it”.
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A-holes need to be hammered”
I can’t decide if this is the gayest post of the day or the non-gayest.
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Because you live in a mf-ing swing state and Trump literally needs every possible vote.
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Contrary to what DW alleges, my position has been entirely consistent throughout.
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.
– Ralph Waldo Emerson
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As Bongino says, “Big people do big things” and “Little people do little things.” Voting for Trump isn’t even a big thing, it is the only logical thing to do.
Taking your toys and going home because you didn’t get your way….it doesn’t make you “Big people”
I haven’t heard one thing from Vance that suggests he embraces an isolationist agenda.
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Vance is putins bff.
-free passer
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so far at PredictIT today, Trump is up 1 and Harris is off 2.
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Suddenly polling of battleground states has dried up. Non-battleground state polling has never gotten going much at all. But were are on the cusp of the final stretch in this election, and here is the last date in the field by any poll for each of the following battlegrounds:
GA: 8/15 – 13 days ago
AZ: 8/17 – 11 days ago
NV: 8/18 – 10 days ago
WI: 8/19 – 9 days ago
NH: 8/19 – 9 days ago
MI: 8/22 – 6 days ago
VA: 8/22 – 6 days ago
PA: 8/23 – 5 days ago
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Not going to start a new thread, but here is a completely garbage ActiVote poll of MICHIGAN
https://www.activote.net/harris-and-trump-essentially-tied-in-michigan/
Trump 50 / Harris 50
But was a MONTH long poll, 7/28-8/28 against only 400 likely voters.
and the raw party ID started out at D64 / R20 / I16. Full Stop. Its garbage right there and they should not have tried to salvage it. But they reweighted to D55 / R30 / I15 and they got a tie out of it.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The Geek Squad declared they THINK my laptop is dead. And they are not sure if they can retrieve my files and documents (despite my showing them I can open a task bar using F12). So I bought a Chromebook. Then he says “if we COULD have gotten them, there is no way possible for us to have transferred the files FROM the old one TO the Chromebook.” NOW he tells me…Not real happy with my Chromebook yet.Best Buy guy sells me the Chromebook, plus a Windows Home Office for $179 that the Geek Squad guy in the same building says he will install for me. Take the Chromebook to the Geek guy and he suddenly remembers that Windows Home Office (and Word) cannot be installed in the Chromebook. (Chromebook has a DIFFERENT system that allows me to type documents.)Have to unwind my purchase of Home Office. Clerk at returns station 10 feet away says they don’t do refunds of Microsoft Office purchases, I will have to take it up directly with Microsoft. I protest politely. Said that guy there (pointing to sales clerk who just walked by) sold me the Windows Office because he said it could be installed on the Chromebook. That other guy over there (Geek Squad guy 10 feet away) says it cannot be installed. Manager is called, refunds my purchase, clerk who sold it to me says “my bad, I did not know that.” All is good.
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PROGRESS!
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OK. So now I am back up and running and can lurk (or comment). Cash Cow is still working on getting her passwords straightened out.
She said to tell everyone to GFT.
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DW, Thanks for the good info on polling.
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