According to a new University of New Hampshire poll. Below shows the change from their prior poll. This new poll was taken 8/15-8/19 against a very large sample of 2,048 Likely voters. This NH poll suggesting Trump would be helped if Kennedy dropped out. They also polled VT (8/15 – 8/19; 924 LV) and ME (8/15 – 8/19; 951 LV)
 | NEW HAMPSHIRE |
| Trump | 47 (+1) |
| Harris | 52 (-1) |
| Full ballot: | |
| Trump | 43 |
| Harris | 50 (+1) |
| Kennedy | 4 |
| Other | 1 |
 | VERMONT |
| Trump | 27 |
| Harris | 67 |
| Kennedy | 3 |
 | MAINE |
| Trump | 38 |
| Harris | 55 |
| Others | 3 |
| CD_02: | |
| Harris | 52 |
| Trump | 47 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
88 responses to “Harris with lead in New Hampshire”
1st
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crap. segundo
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nice to see the head-to-head drop from Harris +7 to Harris +5. In 2020, UNH had Biden up 8 in their final poll, and Biden won by 7.35. In July 2020 they had Biden +13.
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UPDATE: I just realized they also polled Vermont and Maine. I am skeptical of the numbers from Maine. I don’t see Trump losing CD_02.
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So at the same time, pollsters tell us Trump is down only three in VA, down only five in NH, but is down 17 in ME.
The gaps in 2020 were VA -10, NH -6, ME -9
I know states move a little, but -10 going to -3 in the direction of Trump is radically different from -9 going to -17 in favor of Harris.
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I haven’t see the new RAS national poll yet. It normally comes out every Thursday.
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Trump up to 49c at PredictIT
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Bettors following the polls.
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Trump won ME_02 in 2016 by 10 points.
Then he won it by 7 points in 2020.
But now UNC says the rural citizens in ME_02 have loved the chaos of the last 4 years so much, than now they are going to flip to Harris, in a 12 point swing.
Nope. Not buying it.
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Marv, yes, it will be Trump +3 or Trump +4. Depending on today’s numbers.
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Jonathan Karl @jonkarl
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1h
Bobby Kennedy plans to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Donald Trump, sources tell me and @AaronKatersky
“I will not confirm or deny that,” Kennedy just told me, adding this about
@VP Harris and the Dem Convention:
“I think it was a coronation, it’s not democracy”
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Good ad hitting Harris on her border failures:
https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1826236087867773143
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If Trump doesn’t win Maine CD2 but wins GA, NC, and PA, that would be 269 EVs, sending the decision to the House and the VP pick to the Senate. That type of drama would be appropriate with everything else we’ve seen this year. The GOP should have a majority of states in the House even if they lose the entire chamber narrowly. The Senate should come down to whether Sheehy can knock off Tester in Montana.
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that’s what I’ve been saying for months Jeff, though I was using the combination of GA. AZ, GA and NE-2…which is 269
GOP will absolutely control more delegations than the d in the house
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
These revisions are devastating, but I think everyone knew the jobs numbers were a lie. We don’t have a manufacturing (-115,000) core anymore. Back in August 2018, the U.S. was adding manufacturing jobs at the highest pace since 1995.
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41.8K Views
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
Kamala is suddenly talking about increasing the Child Tax Credit. When I was in Office, with the help of my daughter Ivanka, and Senators Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, I doubled the Child Tax Credit, which brought Tax Relief to 39 Million Middle Class Families. Kamala voted against this Bill in 2017 and, in 2021, Democrats let this Tax Cut expire!
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Rfks running mate is complaining about the aggressive lawsuits filed by the drats to knock them off the ballot. Claims it’s a threat to democracy.
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“The television ratings of the first night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) sunk 22 percent from 2016, according to Nielsen.
The ratings crash suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is far less popular than the media purported.”
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/21/nielsen-dnc-television-ratings-crash-22-from-2016/
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The RFK rumors have really picked up the pace at PredictIT. Trump now up to 51c (+3 for today) and Harris is down to 53c, (-3 for today).
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Vic, it would be great to watch Dems freak out, especially if they have the overall majority in the House but lose on the state-by-state vote.
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And the obumbler doing a d*ck gesture.
More from the article: Day two of the convention did not appear to go any better than the first. The media published what seems to be an unusual amount of negative stories about the second day.
Headlines from several outlets slammed the DNC’s schedule, talking points, angle of political attacks, and the unrest outside the convention center.
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So, it appears that day 1 and 2 resulted in a negative bounce for her and she was limping to the convention with the stolen valor issue raging, the capital gain tax, and the price control debacle.
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Team Trump
@TeamTrump·
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Under Comrade Kamala, our military has been abused for radical social experiments. On Day One, I will get CRT and transgender insanity the hell out of the U.S. Armed Forces. Our warriors should be focused on defeating America’s enemies, not figuring out their genders.”
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Mark Mitchell at Rasmussen was finally asked by someone, and he sort of gave an answer.
The question is the one I have been raising over and over. How can it be that national polls have gone from a slight Trump edge against the pre-debate Biden debacle , to now a 4 point Harris lead, while at the state level, this alleged shift only shows up in battleground states, but not non-battleground states?
The way the question was put to Mitchell was why is Trump doing poorly in your battleground state polls, while at the same time still doing great in your national polling?
His answer was sort of a dodge, saying Trump is doing better in the battlegrounds than he did in 2020. True, but that’s not the question. The question was why the Rasmussen NATIONAL numbers have NOT moved, but the battleground states HAVE moved, as though the two are completely disconnected. GA, MI, WI, PA, AZ, NV, and NC make up a sizeable portion of the nation.
And yet polling has shown that CA, TX, FL, OH, OR, WA, and NY have not really moved. Now to be fair, it does seem that UNH is saying ME and VT moved bluer, and Rasmussen says Montana went redder.
But it doesn’t seem that small population red and blue states going harder red and blue can account for the data.
Either Rasmussen’s national data is too optimistic for Trump, or his battleground state polling is not favorable enough for Trump.
I am all ears for other explanations any of you may have.
Same goes for the leftist pollsters trying to say their national and battleground state polling has moved, but non-battlegrounds have not moved.
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George@BehizyTweets
·
2h
BREAKING: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has just CONFIRMED that noncitizens are getting registered to vote across the state. His undercover investigators caught various Democrat-linked NGOs giving voter registration forms to people at DMV locations
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
8m
No surprise. Again this week, a significant number of people in a massive LIKELY VOTER poll said they were NOT citizens, and that they vote (3.6%).
and probably 99% of them vote for the party that let them in, and provides them free food and medical care.
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DW – I defer to you on polls. Is it possible that there is no where for voters in the non-battleground states to go? Can Mississippi get more red or California more blue? Do those states even see high ad volume when the outcome is already known?
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two walkoff homers in three days vs Al East leaders. Maybe this team does have a heartbeat.
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DW, I think the Ras national number is a little too optimistic. They have been showing Trump with about 30% of the Black vote. I could see him getting maybe 20% nationally, but nowhere near 30%.
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https://www.mediaite.com/trump/pbs-correspondent-issues-apology-for-comments-about-trump-interference-in-gaza-ceasefire-talks/
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If Trump miraculously got 30% of the AA vote ie the best hail since Nixon in 1960, it’s game over, lights out for the Dems (at least at POTUS level); no way they recover from such a loss of their base. Add to that Hispanics swinging right at a decent clip, and Trump probably only needs half that.
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yeah woodruff and other liberals say whoops. But most people believe the first story and never hear the restraction
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The Mets did it against 2 pitchers the Phillies let go. 1 was signed by the O’s. Another was traded this season.
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so this is our country under Harris, and it will only get worse. I was with the boys in the supermarket when the oldest (5th grade) saw a friend from his new school (should note number 2 school within 400 miles, number 7 in the state). Says hi. I meet the Dad. Then we go on our way. He proceeds to tell me that at 10 years old this child has declared she’s “Pan” and a “therion” and that if Trump is elected her parents told her they will kill her. I sh*t you not.
so these parents, at a high end private school, are telling/allowing their child to believe she’s a pan sexual (had to look that one up) furry animal…and that Trump would kill her if elected
that will only get worse under Komrade Kamala
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bitter…that pitcher had an 0.88 ERA coming into the series
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And both pitchers sucked at the end of their Phillies career.
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Dementeds secretary of Ccp commerce said that she was not familiar with the sharp downward revision to jobs. She blamed trump.
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Vic- Seranthony Dominguez’s ERA is 4.4 this season.
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bitter. It was 0.88 with Baltimore before he ran into the buzz saw that is the Mets
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ok seriously…nothing about a pan sexual therian 10 year old….Where’s Chicon and MG when you need them.
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Apparently, I am too mean for them.
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Silly accusations don’t reinforce posting more comments generating more silly accusations.
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Why did Chicon leave? As for MG, I know some of yall had differing opinions and argued, but he also had some good posts and put up some valuable information. I do hope they both come back.
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I felt their (Chicon & MG) contrasting opinions provided well-rounded, informative dialogues around here. The constant nitpicking, though, becomes old.
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I hope both return.
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Me too, Tina!
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“They shall return….so it is written, so it is done.”
-NYCramsesMike
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Walt has been a little quiet as well……the fact that Trump refuses to conform to what he believes is the right way for politicians to act may be wearing on him a bit.
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Chicon leaves for long periods. Nothing new.
MG, the “true American” had a hissy fit and wants to pretend Bitter told him to leave when he didn’t.
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Nate Silverhack did the math and says RFK endorsement will be worth exactly + 0.2% to Trump.
No, you can’t make this sh-t up.
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And then jason, the resident “you’re racist” person at HHR, shows up.
This place never gets old!
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Walt has been here frequently. Might be busy with summer chores.
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Hey NYC, have you come up with the “context” yet for telling me to go back to where I am from?
If not, you could just admit your are a racist xenophobic ass.
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It’s been weeks, still waiting for the “context”.
Say, I have suggestion.
Since you wanted a 50% cut in LEGAL immigration while millions of ILLEGALS flood the border, may you can claim you just wanted to deport 50% of LEGAL immigrants?
I mean, you would still look like an ass, but its better than nothing.
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Several more anecdotal stories of former Dem voters now DEFINTELY voting Trump – about 10 Filipinos (one family) and one of the daughters husband (Jewish converted to Catholic) and his Jewish parents will be all voting Trump here in Jersey.
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LOL
“Reporter: Nearly a million jobs “created” since Kamala took office do not exist.
Raimondo: “I don’t believe it because I’ve never heard Trump say anything truthful.”
Reporter: “It is from the Bureau of Labor.”
Raimondo: “I’m not familiar with that.”
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In regards to RFK Jr. – I know I definitely disagree with him on regular political issues like minimum wage laws, health insurance rules, education spending, school vouchers etc etc…..but when it comes to Big Pharma and his issues with vaccines/medicines/who has liability when something goes wrong, the LEAST a person who calls him a whacko should do would be to link to some information/live interview as evidence for their position……..otherwise, it’s just a slanderous, ignorant remark which is the hallmark of a progressive liberal Democrat.
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about 10 Filipinos (one family)”…will all be voting for Trump…
I hope NYC lets them stay….
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I would think Fraudci is the wacko, when compared to rfk. I don’t agree with rfk on many issues.
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RFK is a certified whacko.
I guess that makes me a “progressive liberal Democrat”.
Of course, the person who says that thinks donating to Harry Reid, Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer makes you a conservative, so I take it with a grain of salt.
His opposition to child vaccinations is stupid and dangerous and could kill millions of children if his views were accepted. Parents should not be able to prevent their children from getting polio vacci
Again and again, Kennedy has made his opposition to vaccines clear. In July, Kennedy said in a podcast interview that “There’s no vaccine that is safe and effective” and told FOX News that he still believes in the long-ago debunked idea that vaccines can cause autism. In a 2021 podcast he urged people to “resist” CDC guidelines on when kids should get vaccines.”
“I see somebody on a hiking trail carrying a little baby and I say to him, better not get them vaccinated,” Kennedy said
Kennedy said if he were president, he would mandate pre-licensing safety trials for vaccines and “allow parents to make of their minds about whether they want to use vaccines for their children.”
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yeah the whole vaccines cause autism comes from none other than Jenny McCarthy the playboy model!
with that said, we did space out our kids vaccines a bit (with our doctors consultation and approval) so they would t be overwhelmed with so many at once
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I think NYC made some valid points regarding RFK jr. He certainly is a “normal” lib with issues commonly advocated by libs. But, his knowledge of pesticide harms, and the limitations and pharmaceutical lapses, dealing with safety protocols being appropriately carried out, is on target in many cases.
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trump now up 6 in the poly markets
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RFK Jr is a flaming liberal and a nutcase to boot.
“On target” my ass.
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his knowledge of pesticide harms”
LOL
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Link to that RFK podcast, please.
As for vaccines, last time I saw him speak he mentioned differences between how the first 3 vaccines were tested and shown to work as compared to something like 60-70 different vaccines which have been approved by the government at this point.
I know when my son was young, we had several discussions with our pediatrician about the chickenpox vaccine, and the doctor admitted that it was an economic vaccine, designed to allow single moms (or families where both parents work) to avoid missing those 2 weeks of work when a child gets sick with chickenpox. We ended up having him get the vaccine, as the NYC school system “recommends” it.
That said, the willingness of any conservative to blindly trust a government where officials who make the decision about these medicines clearly have benefitted financially by their close cooperation with Big Pharma is crazy. Good for RFK to question and insist that the government shows their work in regards to approvals and how they got there.
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Also have a cousin, chirpractor, who has not gotten one vaccine for his 2 daughters – they have both had several of the same childhood diseases he and I had as kids, but nothing serious. His wife agrees with his take on the matter.
Must be another whack-job, how crazy to take such freedom for oneself!
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RFK is beyond wacko. Telling parents not to vaccinate children against serious diseases is more like criminal.
“Freedom” to kill your kids! Freedom for them to have polio! Who doesn’t want that?
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The fact children can survive certain diseases for which thee were no vaccines in the past is a stupid reason to not get vaccinated.
It’s like saying well children survived for decades in cars without car seats or seat belts so they shouldn’t use them now.
But I am not surprised NYC approves of this nonsense. Par for the course.
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the problem with not vaccinating children against diseases that killed young children for thousands of years is that you put the burden on the parents wiling to vaccinate their children, passing responsibility to keep these diseases at bay, while you take none.
there are plenty of childhood vaccines that have worked for sixty years and are safe. Children should have them. If you’re concerned, the. Space them out a bit
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But Jd Vance and Trump are weird
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VictrC – the one interview I saw with RFK, he said there is a difference between the original vaccines versus the ones which have been approved in the last 30 years…..which is in line with what my pediatrician said about the chickenpox vaccine being an “economic vaccine”….majority of the vaccines being given now are NOT for life-threatening diseases.
jason will keep repeating his “RFK is a nutjob”. He is unable to change a position once he takes one publicly, for whatever reason.
My stance is simple – I trust the vaccines I was given as a child, as they were for serious diseases. After those, I think the government and Big Pharma should show their work in regards to their safety.
jason = blind obedience to government apparatchiks and corporate masters.
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Cheers, and goodnight.
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bon nuit
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“They need to be able to say we did this thing and it made your life better. But since they can’t say that, it’s a lot of rhetoric and generalized promises about the future.”
-Vance on the drat convention.
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Chiropractor? Zzzzzzz I have deposed chiropractors. The one question I always want to ask but don’t is, “Did your mom cry when you told her you didn’t get accepted to medical school?”
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The only vaccines I don’t get are for shingles and flu. I could use an excuse to miss work for a few days.
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I didn’t know there was a vaccine for shingles
not fun to have those. The shingles that is
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It’s not a fun vaccine to take (two shots two months apart). It will give you bad flu-like symptoms for a couple days, but it should be worth it in the long run.
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NYC is a clown.
He “knows” a chiropractor who puts his children at risk by not vaccinating them.
He “saw one interview” with RFK jr. who is a lawyer, not a doctor or a scientist.
For this reason he gives the whacko nutjob a pass on his dangerous theories on vaccines.
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I took the shingles one too.
You don’t want to get that. But I never took the flu shot. I can live with the flu. Or die, I guess.
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Free housing for illegals coming to a place near you.
NYC to bleat out “WE ARE WINNING”!
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On a related issue, I will take any antibiotics a doctor or dentist wants me to use. Sometimes I ask for them. “Do you think I need antibiotics?” “No. Just change the bandaid when necessary.”
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“When undocumented individuals are excluded from such programs, they miss out on a crucial method of securing financial security and personal stability for themselves and their families.”
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AUSA Leo Wise retorted:
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New Thread
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