According to new polling from AARP, 8/7-8/11; 600 LV; R33/D32/I35. This is polling done by Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D):
 | MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 45 |
| Harris | 43 |
| Kennedy | 6 |
| Stein | 1 |
| West | 1 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Rogers | 44 |
| Slotkin | 47 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
60 responses to “Trump ahead 2 points in Michigan”
First. Again.
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Its funny, on social media the leftist loons are all out with their knives warning everyone that this is a REPUBLICAN poll done by a Republican pollster.
Uhhm, its a joint effort between a Republican pollster, Fabrizio, which is HIGHLY respected, and Impact Research, a DEM pollster.
And its appropriate to call the AARP the AALRP, the American Association of Liberal Retired Persons.
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no way, tercero. El Guapo is slipping
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Since the slackers in Pennsylvania aren’t stepping up to help Trump I guess it’s up to us Michiganders once again to save this country!
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Not going to start a new thread because I just did, and this poll is dated now and its an internal, so it will go on the AZ page.
New ARIZONA poll for @NRSC (R)
Senate
🔵 Ruben Gallego: 46%
🔴 Kari Lake: 46%
—
President
🔴 Trump: 44%
🔵 Harris: 42%
🟡 RFK Jr: 11%
—
Peak Insights | 7/31-8/1 | 800 LV | ±3%
https://nationaljournal.com/s/725925/exclusive-gop-poll-finds-tied-arizona-senate-race/?unlock=4PB6RUXBTO0IOS46
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internal that’s leaked means lake is down…maybe 4 so probably Az is tied for trump
he has to carry AZ and I can’t imagine how Harris could be competitive or tied there given her open border policy that affects AZ so much
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Super PAC Fairshake has just announced it will spend $25M on TV ad campaigns to support 18 House candidates from both parties.
NC01: $2.2M
CA27: $2M
NY18: $2M
AKAL: $1.9M
CO08: $1.9M
CA40: $1.8M
CA45: $1.8M
NV04: $1.8M
AZ06: $1.6M
OR05: $1.5M
CA22: $1.3M
MN02: $1M
IA03: $900K
NY03: $900K
IL17: $800K
TX15: $800K
WI01: $800K
IL13: $600K
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Jason is the slacker. Trump will get my vote. For the third time.
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Pro-#crypto Super PAC Fairshake
Fairshake spokesman Josh Vlasto commented:
“We are seeing a broad bipartisan consensus behind ‘crypto and blockchain as a critical component of the future economy. More than 52 million Americans own crypto with the sector responsible for tens of thousands of jobs across the country. We will continue to deploy our resources in support of leaders on both sides of the aisle and in both houses who are committed to getting things done and working with the industry to pass responsible regulation that drives innovation, creates jobs, and sustains America’s global leadership.”
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Vic, I don’t trust AZ and NV. All Trump has to do is hold his states from 2020 (North Carolina the greatest danger), and then flip GEORGIA and PENNSYLVANIA, and that’s the ballgame.
270 EVs
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Future ad reservations in these Senate/Gov races compared to Presidential:
AZSen:🔵$44M🔴$6.6M
AZ Prez:🔵$22.6M🔴$7.4M MISen:🔵$34.7M🔴$16.5M
MI Prez:🔵$35.9M🔴$15.1M NVSen:🔵$43.9M🔴$18.7M
NV Prez:🔵$6.7M🔴$6.6M PASen:🔵$66.1M🔴$56.9M
PA Prez:🔴$79.4M🔵$43.1M WISen:🔵$37.7M🔴$9.7M
WI Prez:🔵$18.5M🔴$16.5M NCGov:🔵$17.6M🔴$1.4M
NC Prez:🔵$16M🔴$10.8M
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Its not just that the polls are all over the place, Trump vs. Harris, but they are also very inconsistent when it comes to the comparison of the senate candidate’s gap compared to the POTUS race. Look at PA for instance, on recent polls.
The number here is how many points McCormick trails Trump in the given poll:
Susquehanna 1
Quinnipiac 5
Emerson 6
Bullfinch 7
Cook Political 8
Franklin and Marshall 9
North Star Opinion Research 10
Fox News 11
Redfield and Wilton 11
NY Times 12
PPP 12
These are all recent polls taken in the last few weeks, any of them overlapping the same timeframe.
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Trump just bumped up from 45 cents to 46 cents at PredictIt. First time at 46 in a while.
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“Too bad McCormick won’t run that ad in my area”
Not sure what the rationale is for this. Some ideas….
Whatever the reason, I think he should advertise in your market. He has a more moderate image than Trump and could even maybe get some ticket splitters the other way, Trump haters voting for Kamala AND him.
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Quemala is trailing. It’s reverting back to what is was from the sugar high. It’s hard to keep her buried. Cn and n just asked about when quemala will take questions or do a presser.m. She cannot continue to hide.
I think trump has done well on the issues (see yesterdays economic discussion, the fox interview with Maria last week, and the interview with Elon).
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Kamala proposing price controls… geezus
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The Casey ads have defined McCormick as a heartless bastard who lived in Connecticut because he got rich firing Americans and building Chinese weapons. He should have been hitting back at Casey for months.
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She’s losing me a bit on the price gouging stuff. Nixon’s presidency was the last time we had price controls. Maybe it polls well among the crazy masses.
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Not going to start a new thread with this one either. Its a junk self-selected online poll. The unweighted party ID is Dem 52, Rep 30, Ind 16. As Baris said, if that’s what you see in a 400 voter sample, throw it out. Its not recoverable and reweighting it won’t result in a quality poll. Even though the topline, Trump +8 looks somewhat okay, its a garbage poll.
Florida GE: (with leaners)
🔴 Donald Trump: 54%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 46%
@ActiVoteUS
8/5-15 | 400 LV | ±4.9%
https://activote.net/trump-leads-harris-in-florida/
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Price freezes won’t work. Also, core inflation was still quite high. In particular rent, housing, and food.
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Price freezes will drive any intelligent independent voters right back to Trump. The question is how many indies are intelligent?
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Price Freezes = Cannot cover operating costs.
Cannot cover operating costs = Stores Closing
Stores Closing = Unemployment
Unemployment = Huge Tax Hikes
Huge Tax Hikes = Economic Collapse
Economic Collapse = Recession/Depression
Kamala is not smart enough to run a lemonade stand.
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Jason is the slacker.”
I am offended.
I used to be called much worse things.
Where is wes when we need him, he knew how to insult people.
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party ID is Dem 52, Rep 30, Ind 16″
Wow, that is realistic…
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And a ±4.9% margin of error.
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DW. I have a hard time seeing Trump winning PA but losing NV and AZ. I could be wrong but I think PA is a harder road for him
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btw what happened to Chicon
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I guess he is not dropping out…
“VP Harris’s Democratic Party would be unrecognizable to my father and uncle and I cannot reconcile it with my values. The Democratic Party of RFK and JFK was the party of civil liberties and free speech. VP Harris‘s is the party of censorship, lockdowns, and medical coercion. Kennedy Democrats were anti-war. Kamala‘s is riddled with neocon warmongers. The RFK/JFK dems were allies of Main Street, cops, firefighters, and working people. VP Harris’s is the Party of Big Tech, Big Pharma and Wall Street. My dad and uncle’s party was the champion of voting rights and fair elections. VP Harris’s is the party of lawfare, disenfranchisement, and the coronation of its candidates by corporate donors and party elites. I’ve used our nation’s courts to prosecute corporations who hurt Black Americans. VP Harris used our nation’s courts to mercilessly prosecute Black Americans and exploit them for their labor. My father and uncle prided themselves on their skills at debate and their ability to articulate a coherent vision for our country. VP Harris is scared to debate and can’t survive an unscripted interview. Instead of outlining a vision, she relies on middleschool tactics – memes, forged headlines, infantile slogans (Joy!) and name calling (“Republicans are weird.“) I’ve spent years battling government corruption and lies. VP Harris spent years gaslighting Americans about the health of our Commander in Chief. I have no plans to endorse Kamala Harris for President. I do have a plan to defeat her.”
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Harrigan really cut Walzo a new a-hole…..damm
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This trend helps…
“The latest Silicon Valley mogul to hop aboard the Trump train is 8VC Managing Partner Jon Lonsdale, who sat down with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo to explain Trump’s appeal — and Harris’s liabilities.
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You have to worry about Chicon living in Chicago….
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I don’t doubt that the Biden administration would betray Mossad agents to Iran.
That is why I don’t think Israel would ever trust the Biden Administration with those names.
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Et tu, MSM?
https://x.com/wsmartin218/status/1824097739132571740
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I believe this is a different poll than the one above.
ARIZONA poll by Iron Light intelligence for @LeagueOfWorkers (R)
🔵 Harris: 43%
🔴 Trump: 43%
🟡 RFK Jr: 7%
600 LV | July 29 – August 5 | ±4%
https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/14/kamala-harris-reparation-voters-swing-state-arizona-steve-cortes/
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“party ID is Dem 52, Rep 30, Ind 16″
Wow, that is realistic…”
jason to clarify, this was the UNweighted result. In other words, that’s the raw party id of those who self-selected to click the link in the email and take the online survey. Then ActiVote re-weighted it to what they believe is normal. But that’s too big of an unweighted result, and cannot be fixed. They might have come up with a believable topline result, but other internals would be mashed potatoes.
“I have no plans to endorse Kamala Harris for President. I do have a plan to defeat her.” —RFK
Good, he has ONE path to defeat her, and that is to endorse Trump and do everything he can to help him win.
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MG, it is different and its already on our Arizona polls page. I just didn’t bother to start a new thread with it.
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2024 National GE:
Harris 53% (+6)
Trump 47%
.
Harris 49% (+6)
Trump 43%
Kennedy 7%
Stein 1%
West 1%
Oliver 0%
Outward Intelligence, 1,858 LV, 8/11-15
https://www.outwardintelligence.com/pulse/harris-leads-trump-by-6-points
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no way in hell Harris gets 53% if the national vote. Literally impossible. She’s entering Reagan territory at that level
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https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1824144392975946006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1824144392975946006%7Ctwgr%5E6c0d5e66adde93648aa1a82164f3d0ef510d2f3e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2024%2F08%2Flook-that-crowd-kamala-joe-hold-rally-corner%2F
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I was teaching Civics class today. I asked a student what they thought of Kamala Harris as president. They didn’t know who that was.
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lol. The poll is hilarious. Komrade Kamala is only losing men by2% and whites by 4%
if that’s truly the case the country is over and done. 30 days ago she had a 28% approval rating
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https://www.axios.com/2024/08/15/trump-harris-ad-spending-2024-august?hss_channel=tw-752608758476468224
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It was a high school Civics class for lower-IQ students. I did make them watch the 1975 Preamble to the Constitution Schoolhouse Rock cartoon.
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This is what happens when agenda polling enters the phase where some of the credible pollsters don’t want to lose their credibility and so they put out more honest numbers (Pew, Fox News, and others) but the left wants to keep the illusion going, so out of nowhere drops a pollster nobody has ever heard of like “Outward Intelligence” to be the sacrificial lamb to keep the gimmick going that Harris has unstoppable momentum.
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Trump presser incoming from Nj.
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what is outdoor intelligence? Never heard of them.
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And this is the reason RCP limits who they include in the average, so at least they will have some kind of decent reputation.
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Trump presser about to start. Notice the groceries.
https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/182416675201341853
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General Election poll
🔵 Harris 48% (+1)
🔴 Trump 47%
Cygnal #B – 1500 LV – 8/8
https://www.cygn.al/national-poll-2024-election-has-re-entered-stasis-while-trump-republicans-maintains-advantage/
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This is actually a very good poll for Trump. Showing he will win the Electoral-Vote.
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There is apparently a Democracy Institute Poll of the national race showing Trump ahead 48 to 44, a poll done for the UK Express. But I couldn’t find much data on it, just one link where they bashed Trump’s chances because his numbers among blacks is dropping.
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DW, here it is .
The Democracy Institute poll indicates that Trump received 48 percent of the national votes, while Harris obtained 44 percent.
https://www.the-express.com/news/us-news/145969/donald-trump-kamala-harris-poll-black-voters
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MG, but there is no link to the actual poll, showing even the dates it was taken, much less the sample size or anything. Why would someone do a poll and not even both to release it other than a silly article written about it–one that puts on display a complete lack of knowledge of the US election?
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New Thread
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That Express poll is bizarre when you fisk the cross tabs. Forget the lack of a MOE figure; if Trump is actually winning 21% of the Black vote (I don’t think it’s going to be that high, probably 14-18% tops, which is more than enough anyhow), the he wins. If he’s doing that while winning 60%+ among the 50 and older groups as well as whites overall and taking Hispanics by a point, it’s bordering on a landslide for him.
Yet even with those numbers in hand, the article says Harris has a pathway to 270. The Limeys have no clue what’s going on over here, but they do seem obsessed with us.
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DW, you’re right about the ignorance of history in that poll article. It calls out Trump’s “laughable claims” of doing well with the Black vote because Kamala leads 73-21. That 21% is the most for a Republican since Nixon won about 18% in 1972. I don’t blame Trump for being boastful when he’s doing much better with Black voters than any Republican in over a half century.
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