I say up only 3 because the same pollster had Biden over Trump in PA back in January by a margin of 42 to 37, and again Biden leading in March by two, 42 to 40. So my expectation for this poll was Harris +5 or more. Their final 2020 poll was Trump 44, Biden 50, off 5 points in Biden’s favor. Here is today’s Franklin and Marshall poll, 7/31-8/11; 920 RV, D45/R41/I14.
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 43 |
| Harris | 46 |
| Kennedy | 6 |
| Stein | 1 |
| Oliver | 1 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 36 |
| Casey | 48 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
49 responses to “Harris up only 3 in Franklin and Marshall PA poll”
First.
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Bitter, is the F&M party ID for PA accurate at D+4?
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Rasmussen will come out today with its new national poll.
Based on my calculation, it will have in it a five day span including these numbers:
47/44
49/45
48/44
47/45
and yesterday which is unknown. Of course I don’t know the roundings, but an average of what we know is going to be 47.7 to 44.5
We will know soon
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Abortion is killing you repubthugs.
-crockchuck
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The senate poll is missing 16% of the electorate.
Zzzzz…
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Where is Chicon who says Trump voters will not split their votes.
I have only seen ONE state where the R candidate doesn’t trail Trump (Florida)
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2020 exit polls showed R+1 in PA, and 2016 was D+3. D+4 could be about right.
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https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/05/pennsylvania-election-2024-voter-registration-democrat-republican-independent/
DW – This article says Dems have a 4% edge as of April so D+4 is consistent.
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d + 4 for pa? How is that “right?” You said r +1 in 2020?
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Now Tina is arguing with a poster who left.
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Since the prevailing wisdom is that abortion does not matter in elections, I will refrain from mentioning it.
I am staying with my prediction that I made last year that Trump will lose because Trump hatred is too strong in too many close states. I hope I am wrong. I am not saying the polls are wrong but polls don’t vote. GFY
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And before Tina calls me a free passer, Harris is a terrible candidate and would get crushed by any Republican not named Trump.
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You were proven wrong about the abortion issue. But you do you.
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My wine chick friends also say abortion is the top issue.
-free passer
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According to Rasmussen polling, 47%, nearly half of Democrats approve of tricking little boys into believing a doctor can make them a girl, so their testicles and penis are cut off, sensitive nerves destroyed, and the boys are turned into sterilized freaks with a lifetime of medical complications. This trickery without the boy being old enough to have ever once experienced ejaculation to know if this is something he would want to keep.
This is beyond sick and disgusting. Its the same kind of torture the ancient Babylonians and Assyrians would do to captive boys, you know the ones they didn’t slaughter right away.
47% of Democrats favor this atrocity.
NO doctor can make a boy into a functioning girl, nor a girl into a functioning boy.
ALL they can do is destroy tissue, destroy nerves, and sterilize.
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Quit spouting common sense, DW. Once Kamala takes over you will have to be “reeducated”
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Who said that?
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Proven wrong? The polls are now. The election is in November. Nothing has been proven yet.
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Zzzzzzzzzz
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It does not have to be the top issue for all voters. It just has to be a top issue for enough voters to swing an election in a battleground.
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McCormick is not running any ads in my area. The anti-Casey ads are through PACs.
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Trump must have had a good day yesterday in Rasmussen to up the average from what I predicted (47 to 44). Here is the actual results:
Rasmussen Reports @Rasmussen_Poll
·
Election 2024: Trump 49%, Harris 45%
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ABORTION!
THIS TOPIC COULD BE IMMEDIATELY TAKEN OFF THE TABLE IF TRUMP AND VANCE GIVE THE FACTS–AND THE MEDIA REPORTS IT.
AND IF THE MERDIA REPORTS IT ACCURATELY. (WHICH THEY WON’T)
Since they WON’T, then Trump campaign needs to put the abortion issue facts on the table in their campaign ads.
AND in NATIONAL DEBATES.
*****************************
–The Dobbs decision did NOT end nor outlaw abortion in the U.S.
–If fact, since the SCOTUS decision the number of abortions in the U.S. has actually INCREASED.
–The SCOTUS decision said that the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT has no constitutional role to play on the issue of abortion. IT IS IN THE PERVIEW OF THE STATES–ACCORDING TO THE CONSTITUTION.
–Abortion is still legal. If people are upset over abortion being illegal after 25 weeks, or 22 weeks, or whatever, or if they are opposed to allowing partial birth abortions or abortions due to rape incest or that will kill the mother if she continues the pregnancy they need to work within their state to convince their state government to make the changes they wish to see happen.
FOR THE DEMS TO USE THE ABORTION ISSUE AS A REASON TO VOTE AGAINST TRUMP IS PLAIN WRONG.
While you mistakenly THIINK you are voting for “women’s reproductive rights” in the POTUS election and voting for Kamala, you are forgetting that you are also voting Kamilia Kamala/Biden and her presidency will continue to bring higher inflation, higher energy costs, higher food prices, higher taxes, failed foreign affairs policy and more wars that will kill and maim U.S. young men and women who will get involved. And more open borders and more crime, and more tax dollars spent to provide illegal aliens with health care, food, housing, education–AND LESS TAX DOLLARS BEIGN SPENT ON PROVIDING FOR THE NEEDS OF U.S. CITIZENS.
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Quemala is still trailing.
but abortion is the #1 issue in the land.
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Since the prevailing wisdom is that abortion does not matter in elections”
Zzzz….. nobody said that.
Abortion IS an an issue. On both sides, many people feel strongly anti-abortion too.
My point is that for people who view it as top issue are already voting Democratic if they are pro-abortion and R if they are anti-abortion.
There is very little room if any for persuasion among these groups. Ads pro or con are not going to change any minds.
Despite Bitter’s assertions to the contrary, I have yet to see any evidence that there is a significant part of the electorate that are voting SOLELY on the abortion issue. No polling I have ever seen shows that.
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I will toss the Rasmussen poll. They are on an island.
-freepasser
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Who said that? If you are referring to the Pa pole, I was asking Jeff how he or(pole) or whatever said pa is d+4. Perhaps, he meant that is what the pa pole itself suggested?
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McCormick is running an ad here where he speaks to the camera.
He says he never profited from fentanyl and that Casey is a liar.
He then pivots to showing where Casey’s votes have enabled fentanyl to come across the border and kill Pennsylvanians.
It is a good ad.
Casey is obviously worried and spending a lot of money. His ad where he says he “voted for secure borders” is ridiculous. But his ad where he says he protected veterans from “fire pit” effects is pretty good.
But in the end, Casey is the favorite because he is able to sell the fake “moderate” image.
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I think D+4 is accurate for PA.
Independents will decide the election here.
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I am skeptical of any exit poll (traditionally unreliable) showing R +1 in PA. The registration gap has narrowed since 2020, the Dems have lost voters to Independents while the R registration has remained stable.
Trump can win in a D +4 environment with a strong base turnout and a plurality of Indies.
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but abortion is the #1 issue in the land.”
He didn’t say that.
He thinks in a close election in a swing state it could make a difference.
Maybe. But there are a lot of issues on both sides where you could say the same thing.
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There are many issues that are polarizing besides abortion. Gun control. School choice. Transgender treatment. Climate change.
I think while these issues in the aggregate steer people to one candidate or another, few people vote SOLELY on any of them, and if they do, they probably cancel each other out.
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What? She didn’t bring her dog?
We really have turned into a banana republic.
“During a Donald Trump visit to North Carolina yesterday, a woman Secret Service special agent abandoned her post to breastfeed with no permission/warning to the event site agent, according to three sources in the Secret Service community. Shortly before Trump’s motorcade arrival — I’m told five minutes beforehand — the site agent was getting ready for the arrival. (The site agent is the person in charge of the entire event’s security.) The site agent went to do one final sweep of the walking route and found the agent breast-feeding her child in a room that is supposed to be set aside for important Secret Service official work, i.e. a potential emergency related to the president. A working agent on duty cannot bring a child to a protective assignment. The woman was out of the Atlanta Field Office. The woman agent was in the room with two other family members.”
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Shocking headline!
“Privately, Biden is Bitter”
And we never knew…..
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jason, yes Biden is better, and I pray every day you will be right in our friendly argument about Biden replacement outcomes. The media sure did a masterful job of turning Harris into the second coming of Christ.
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Another black eye for the secret service.
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They cannot continue to hide her.
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“They cannot continue to hide her.”
I am not sure. Its been working pretty good so far. What’s to stop them from leaving her in the basement until after the election? The media is cheering for her 24/7. The election is decided by the roughly 10% in the middle, and they barely pay attention unlike the interested partisans on both sides, and all they get is the feed of soundbites that Harris is either the second coming of Christ, or the second coming of Obama, and Trump is Hitler.
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Too bad McCormick won’t run that ad in my area.
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I know women who would go to the daycare center near their office to breastfeed or pump in their office and take the milk there. I did not know you could take your infant and family to a Secret Service event.
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Don’t forget that the TIME magazine cover was supposed to show up like the one below, but the media power brokers OPENLY refused to let it happen, because it might help Trump. Instead they showed a pic of the empty venue after it was cleared.
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Its INSANE for a Secret Service agent to take family and an infant to an active mission zone. I mean, WTF. That’s absolutely insane. Your number one job is protection of the asset. How can you do that with an infant nearby, which will be nature distract your attention, and especially if you need to breast feed it, which means you will be completely disengaged from your duty of protecting the asset, leaving a vulnerability.
DEI crap is dangerous, physically endangering people. The Asset and other agents.
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And the threatening letter ABC news sent to Rasmussen Reports was chilling. They view themselves as gods who not only decide what is true and false, but as rightful monarchs who punish those who don’t comply.
Banana Republic.
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Reverting back to the abortion issue. I understand Bitter’s argument, that marginal voters who believe in unfettered “womans rights” “reproductive rights” ie. abortion on demand until, and even after, the fetus is born, might be now engaged to come and vote for Harris..
BUT
how many of them would stay at home or vote for RDS if he had been the nominee? My guess is ZERO. They would have been activated by the Harris nomination in the same was as they are now with Trump on the ballot. Same if it had been Scott, or Haley, or anyone else.
Are there enough of these suburban moms who weren’t already voting Harris coming out to make a difference in the election in PA, GA, AZ and NV. I would say potentially in PA.
A bigger issue is that in AZ an abortion question is now on the ballot. Of course the pro-abortion crowd is claiming it will give women their rights back…except, AZ already allows abortion to 15 weeks. This is allowing abortion until 24 week AND after if the moms mental health is questioned.
That’s a bigger issue that might take votes away in AZ because they will fool women into voting to protect the rights, even though they already have them!!
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“They cannot continue to hide her.”
DW, even Stephen A. Smith who is supporting Harris is calling her out and saying the American people deserve to have a candidate that will do interviews and answer questions.
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New Thread, and good news in Michigan
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Harris focus on price gouging sounds like bad policy to me. (Of course, any price controls won’t make it into policy.) It must poll well among the masses. I get turned off by anything like price controls which we haven’t had since Richard Nixon.
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