At Rasmussen reports, Mark Mitchell has been mocking other pollsters for their sudden stoppage in releasing new polls. Will see what happens when they finally post something. Meanwhile, here are the numbers nationally, according to Rasmussen:
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Rasmussen not playing along with the narrative
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
101 responses to “Rasmussen not playing along with the narrative”
Bears are more interesting than politics….just ask RFK
I like bear meat but you have to know how to cook it (needs to be boiled first or it tastes like sh-t)
Black Bear
The season is very limited, and there are like 300k a-holes out there trying to hunt a bear.
The odds of actually finding one in that short a span are low unless you are willing to go up to northern counties like Tioga where they are more plentiful. But only about 1% of license holders get one. Still, in 2023 bears were harvested in 58/67 PA counties
I am too lazy to hunt bears.
But some people never give up.
In 2022, nine hunters born in the 1930s harvested a black bear. One of them, a 96-year-old, took his first bear after 82 years of trying.
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The Olympics are over. It was fun watching badminton and table tennis and archery while I worked.
The US won women’s basketball gold by one point. Had the French player not stepped on the 3 pt line when she made a basket with 0 seconds to go the game would have gone to overtime. That was the 8th gold in a row in women’s basketball and 61 game winning streak.
That gold was needed to tie China in the gold medal count and give the US the overall win because it has more total medals.
Ok, now that you bastards have been schooled on bears and the Olympics, GFYs.
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Walz’ stolen valor accusations does feel like an inevitable crash that is coming down the road.
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It’s funny – no national poles under than ras
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here is the chart Mark Mitchell is using to show how almost no polling released last week:
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I don’t know why Doltz even lied about his service record. Lying about it to exaggerate his service in order to advance politically is the problem.
Vance mentions his service and what he did (desk job).
Vance never lied about what he did
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And doltz lies spans 20 years or so. He cannot claim he did not know like a typical drat. He should have corrected the record sooner.
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trump to sue injustice for the illegal raid (search and seizure) of MAL. $100 million lawsuit.
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J.D. Vance may have been a journalist, but he was in danger from being blown up by an IED or being shot at if he went anywhere off base, which he did. No, he was not an infantryman. But he was in no less danger when he traveled anywhere outside of a secure zone. My brother did three tours in Afghanistan. He was not with any frontline battle units, but he was part of convoys that had vehicles blown up by IEDs. Just being there was very dangerous.
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Absolutely Jeff.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/11/kamala-harris-voted-pass-legislation-allowing-irs-track-workers-tips-taxed/
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Jeff G, a friend of mine was a chaplain in the Army, you know, not carrying any guns at all, and he was in a convoy in Afghanistan, and the vehicle was hit by an IED and he was blown to pieces, killed instantly.
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Lots of contemplative chatter swirling around the Trump campaign. Dem news outlets like axios are talking about how Trump is “struggling” with ways to deal effectively with Harris. Even the stalwart Peter Navarro is indicating a reset is needed to change the current state of play. The fact Harris/Walz are being coddled and protected by the press —-no hard questions or unscripted events and glossy Time Magazine covers —- leaves them safe from exposing their extreme policy differences to voters, especially independents. The advice being given by Trump allies is to strictly focus on differences in policy, rather than the personal attacks so many find unappealing. I think it would be of benefit for Trump and his team to heed such advice.
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Here you can watch the video of Walz lying. It wasn’t just prepared comments that got facts wrong. He says it and its on video:
https://x.com/NoVA_Campaigns/status/1822821614490185970
“I had the privilege of serving in this state’s NG. I stood one night in dark of night on tarmac at Bagram Air Base in Iraq and watched a military ramp ceremony-a soldier’s body being loaded onto a plane to be returned home”
Sorry, this is a lie however you slice it. Whenever you cobble together things from different contexts to give a specific impression that is untrue, its a lie. That is exactly what this big fat liar has done here. Here is the quote again, amended with the truth:
“I had the privilege of serving in this state’s NG [MANY YEARS AGO WHERE I ESSENTIALLY DID NOTHING AND EVENTUALLY WAS DEMOTED BEFORE I QUIT]. [THEN YEARS LATER AS PART OF A CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION] I stood one night in dark of night on tarmac at Bagram Air Base in Iraq [sic. AFGHANISTAN] and watched a military ramp ceremony-a soldier’s body being loaded onto a plane to be returned home”
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Bitter can correct me if I am wrong, but if you tried this garbage in a court of law, it wouldn’t fly.
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Walz seems to have an intentional pattern of putting just enough truth into the lies so that he can defend the lies.
There are too many examples to pretend he “misspoke”.
He advanced the notion he was deployed, etc. just enough for the MSM to run with it and then made sure none of it was ever corrected.
When you are introduced as something you are not in the military, and you don’t correct it, that is the definition of stolen valor.
I know quite a few National Guard people. They say “I was in the National Guard for 10 years” they don’t say “I was in the military for 10 years”. Because if you say “I was in the military for 10 years” people assume it was active duty.
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I don’t think the Minnesota National Guard will either forget or forgive Walz’s gross embellishment of his service record. Very much how John Kerry was undermined by his fellow swiftboat brothers, so will Tim Walz be shadowed by the disdain of those who served with him, or are members of any military branch of the government.
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Sorry, this is a lie however you slice it. Whenever you cobble together things from different contexts to give a specific impression that is untrue, its a lie.”
Exactly.
“I was in the National Guard”
“I was at Bagram”
If you follow one with the other, you know 100% of people hearing it will assume the 2 are related.
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J.D. Vance may have been a journalist, but he was in danger from being blown up by an IED or being shot at if he went anywhere off base, which he did. No, he was not an infantryman.”
Yep, there is really no such thing as a “desk job” in a combat zone.
You are in harm’s way.
Same with rank. High ranking officers are not normally on the front lines. But anywhere in a war zone you are at risk.
A US Major General was killed in Afghanistan. The Russians have lost several generals in Ukraine.
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Great Trump ad on Twitter using Reagan
Trump has a lot to learn from Reagan so this is encouraging
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1822889460243001547?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1822889460243001547%7Ctwgr%5E85e983370ec9ac2f790d2a7887b1c7e2134555c1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Famy-curtis%2F2024%2F08%2F12%2Ftrump-is-back-on-twitter-n2399530
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Bitter I assume you will watch the Trump interview with Elon Musk tonight.
I expect a full report.
Tks.
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Interesting article making a compelling case that Kelly was Kamala’s best pick.
https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/republicans-just-dodged-a-killer-ray-gun-blast
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Sorry. I don’t have Twitter or X or whatever it is called now.
Jan can report how amazing it was before it happens.
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bitter. With all due respect, Jan criticized Trump above and implored him to concentrate on issues rather than political name calling/attacks.
progress…
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I don’t know about trump,stopping personal attacks. Maybe, he did that against quemala at the beginning. But everyday since, it has been largely on the issues. Go to his truth posts, interviews (fox); presser, etc.
Look at what Vance did to the media yesterday. Nothing but a laser focus on issues.
$5000 child tax credits.
strong border enforcement.
no tax on tips
no tax on ss income.
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Tina. Vance did an amazing job yesterday. I came away impressed
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janzam also admitted Trump was not a conservative, which is a step in the right direction.
Maybe someday she will renounce Putin as God an savior…
Nah, let’s not get too ambitious.
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So, according to quemala Doltz (burn and bail,ticketl),Doltz misspoke for 19 years abot carrying weapons of war into battle.
19 years of misspeaking and the liberal press is happy with that.
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Vance was not my first choice, Vic. I barely knew him other than he ran a perfect race for senate in oh and was handling the chemical spill that quemala/ shitpiro signed off on the burning of.
Each time, he has done well.
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Cross-examining Walz would be fun. Of course, he would claim he was just a lovable high school teacher.
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As one that doesn’t believe Trump should “avoid personal attacks’ and “name calling” I guess I am a minority here.
The Dems engage in name calling and personal attacks against Trump 24/7.
Refusing to fight back is unilateral disarmament and political suicide.
“Mean tweets” MADE Trump. They propelled him from an obscure 1% popularity candidate riding down an escalator to a primary win against 17 other candidates. “Lil Marco”, “Lying Ted” helped him win the nomination. “Crooked Hillary” helped him win the Presidency.
“Mean tweets” SAVED his Presidency, because he refused to back down against the Russia Hoax, FBI, “Intelligence community”, Mueller, you name it.
The day Trump tries to become a “normal politician” he is doomed.
I never believed that being “nice” to terrorists keeps them from attacking you (Ron and Rand Paul’s theory) and I don’t believe being “nice” to Dems wins you elections.
Sue me.
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Fair enough. We may be falling into the MSM narrative that he needs to only focus on issues, instead of defining and letting America know whose these two are, and why they are bad for America
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Vance is an accomplished guy. His life story is compelling. He is articulate. He has a great family. I saw a couple highlights of this Sunday interviews and he certainly wiped the floor with Dana Bash.
Unfortunately, he also adopted Ron Paul’s isolationist foreign policy agenda which I believe is even more dangerous to America than socialism.
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You could tell that the “reporter” for Cn and that interviewed Vance looked defeated. Imagine being sent out like that to handle quemalas business.
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To demonstrate the media bias, yesterday Dana Bash (or whatever her name is), stuck up for Walz and said “he just misspoke. The campaign said this already.” and directly then asked him…”was Trump lying about having bone spurs. Did he really have bone spurs or was he trying to get out of Vietnam”
You can’t make this up
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”Falling into the narrative”. Exactly this is what the commies want
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We may be falling into the MSM narrative that he needs to only focus on issues”
A fake “normal” and “nice” Trump doesn’t scare the Dems.
The real Donald Trump scares them.
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Did he really have bone spurs or was he trying to get out of Vietnam”
i don’t know how he answered.
But I would have answered:
” I know nothing about Trump’s medical conditions 60 years ago and neither do you. But I certainly know stolen valor when I see it in 2024″
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The Trump/Musk interview is an anticipated event much like the Trump/Tucker interview was. I’m sure it will be readily available in replays afterwards. This would be a great moment for Trump to deliver that “reset” to the content and tone of his remarks. Like you Bitter, I’m voting for Trump because he’s far better than Harris and the Dems. Unlike you, though, I rather focus on the positives he brings to his presidency than bringing many years ago dem donations, affairs that have not been repeated nor effect his current behavior as a political figure (unlike JFK or Clinton).
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“ A fake “normal” and “nice” Trump doesn’t scare the Dems.”
Toning down or retrofitting Trump’s rhetoric a bit doesn’t mean he change his “bite,” but rather divert the bite to the radical stances both Harris & Walz support, but are muted or hidden by the very biased democrat-run media.
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I don’t believe in redemption, Jan. Not in politics. Not in real life. People own their actions forever. I don’t forgive or forget and I don’t expect that in return for anything I do or say.
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than bringing many years ago dem donations,”
He was funding Chuck Schumer as late as 2012, four years before he became President.
Is that “many years ago”?
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So the media and universities still doesn’t seem willing or able to release much of any polling that is from last week. So instead, they release old stuff…like the U of New Hampshire out with a poll of ME_02, dated July 23-25, 701 LV, where they found Trump ahead only 4 points.
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When @LaraLeaTrump and I took over at the RNC, we pledged to recruit 100,000 volunteer poll watchers and poll workers.
We have now hit 157,000 with thousands more to come. This will be the largest election integrity ground game ever.
Join us at protectthevote.com
https://x.com/ChairmanWhatley/status/1822642814863212761
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Trump up in Nevada.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nv-pres-0810/
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The prediction markets swung hard to Kamala following all the hype and new polls
Right now it is Kamala 59 Trump 44 on Predictit and Kamala 51 Trump 46 on Polymarkets.
Polymarkets is international and much bigger than Predictit and harder to manipulate.
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janzam, that NV poll was from last week.
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Why would you speak to someone “ineligible”… who knows, maybe they can “adjust” the birth certificate.
Stein to pick a “Palestinian american VP”
“Stein has spoken with three prominent Arab Americans as potential candidates: Abed Ayoub, the executive director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee; Amer Zahr, a Palestinian American comedian and activist; and Abdullah Hammoud, the Democratic mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, who, at age 34, is constitutionally ineligible to be vice president”
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”Is that “many years ago”?”
Over a decade —- 12 years.
I guess if someone achieved sobriety for a 12 year period you would still rag on them as an alcoholic or drug addict. As for Bitter, he would see no reversal of their addiction tendencies because there is no room for redemption or forgiveness in his life. Swell…..
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DW, I wasn’t aware of that. Thanks for the clarification.
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”Is that “many years ago”?”
Over a decade —- 12 years.”
LOL
It was only 4 years before he ran as a “Republican”.
Poor Janzam actually thinks Trump “changed” from a liberal Dem funding Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton and Harry Read to a conservative Republican in 4 years?
Really?
I wish I had some almost dry swa…, hmm, I mean land in Florida to sell to Janzam.
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Addicts admit that they are never recovered. They are recovering or in recovery. If they stop abusing whatever they were addicted to, they can never take back the pain or destruction they caused. Behaving better does not change what did.
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I guess if someone achieved sobriety for a 12 year period you would still rag on them as an alcoholic”
This is correct. At an AA meeting it doesn’t matter how many years you have been sober.
You introduce yourself as “I am Joe Blow and I am an alcoholic”.
People do change ideologies. But Trump was 66 twelve years ago and 70 in 2016.
He didn’t change. He saw an opportunity and he took it. which is different.
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Presidential Spending
September-November reservations look for each party in the battleground states
PAPol:🔴$50.5M🔵$38.3M GAPol:🔵$25.1M🔴$19.4M MIPol:🔵$32.3M🔴$1.8M AZPol:🔵$21.3M🔴$1.1M WIPol:🔵$16.6M🔴$1.3M NCPol:🔵$15.3M🔴$0 NVPol:🔵$5.5M🔴$0
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I’m not as cynical as you are Jason. I think there are also more worthwhile ways to defeat Harris/Walz than continually berating, belittling their opponent with stale accusations.
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Interesting. I would think NV and MI present better opportunities in the senate than PA.
That being said, McCormick is running about 3-1 ads against Casey so he is spending a lot of money.
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Jan:
My family is filled generations of alcoholics. My niece was an alcoholic. I know what I am talking about.
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I think there are also more worthwhile ways to defeat Harris/Walz than continually berating, belittling their opponent with stale accusations.”
Zzzzz. … I give credit to Trump where it is due.
But let’s not pretend he is a conservative.
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”Addicts admit that they are never recovered”
True. Addicts know how vulnerable they are of slipping back into bad habits of the past. However, many hurt by them emphasize how they are doing today, rather than continually rubbing in how they acted before embracing sobriety.
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Jason: my son was watching a show on Discover plus. It must have thought we were located in Pa. Every commercial break, there was a McCormick/ anti-Casey ad. So he must be spending a lot right now. Didn’t do much good on cable TV in Illinois.
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Bitter, I too am well aware of addiction, having been a member of Al anon for years as well as taking courses to become an addiction counselor. The worse thing you can do is hold the past over someone’s head when they are successfully carving out a better present and future.
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“The advice being given by Trump allies is to strictly focus on differences in policy, rather than the personal attacks so many find unappealing. “
We can only hope…
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So the way to read this is that as whole it is a swing from Dem to Independent.
Looks to me that the significant numbers are in FL, NC, and PA.
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MD sent me a FB message. He sends his GFYs for Maxwell Day.
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Doesn’t look “dramatic” to me but if it is reflected in the Jewish vote nationally it could help.
It would stand to reason that Kamala would be less popular among Jews than Biden, but more popular among Muslims.
“Trump garnered the support of 50% of likely Jewish voters in New York, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Tuesday, a slight lead over Vice President Harris, who garnered the selection of 49% of respondents,” the report said.
“While the lead for Trump is slim, it marks a dramatic change from the former president’s prospects against President Biden, who in June led Trump among likely Jewish voters, 52%-46%, in the state,” it said.
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Is it Maxwell Day?
Happy Maxwell Day to everyone!
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Is MD voting for Kamala?
Now THAT would be an ideological change for the records..
MD berated me once for not being supportive enough of Sharron Angle against Harry Read.
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David French endorses Kamala to “save conservatism”.
Ben Domenech:
“Every David French piece now amounts to “To save the country, I will repeatedly punch myself in the balls”.
Voting for Kamala to save conservatism is like drinking cyanide to cure pneumonia.
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https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1823052418625454082?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Post
See new postsConversation
Mike Davis
@mrddmia
Tim Walz abandoned his troops. Kamala Harris abandoned our border.
5,362 Views
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There are about 300,000 voting age Jewish people in PA, and Jewish people vote in large proportions. If the PA Jewish vote mirrors the Siena New York poll, that could swing the state to Trump.
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“The advice being given by Trump allies is to strictly focus on differences in policy, rather than the personal attacks so many find unappealing. “
We can only hope…”
I think it is bad advice, sorry to go against “conventional wisdom”.
“Focus on issues” is all well and good, but the Dems are not “focusing on issues”, they are focusing on making Trump the scourge of humanity, a Nazi, a rapist, a molester, a thief, an insurrectionist, a misogynist, a racist, etc.
Walt is a nice guy, he engineered the Treaty of Lutatius ending the First Punic Wars and brokered the Bakt Treaty between Egypt and Nubia. In 1192 he was instrumental to the treaty of Jaffa that ended the Third Crusade.
But the fact is a “nice Trump” isn’t going to win any elections. Win or lose Trump has to run as himself, not some new entity concocted by his “allies”.
Politics is a dirty business, no free lunches.
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There are about 300,000 voting age Jewish people in PA, and Jewish people vote in large proportions. If the PA Jewish vote mirrors the Siena New York poll, that could swing the state to Trump.”
If it went from 70-30 to 50-50 and 2/3 vote Trump would get 100k votes instead of 60k.
Certainly could help in a very close election.
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One problem is there is a much bigger population of Orthodox Jews in NY than in PA, and they vote R in much higher numbers than Reform Jews.
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MD does not discuss politics any more. Just sports.
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He sent me the message to remind me.
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You live your life. I will live mine. No redemption. I thought substance abusers are supposed to focus on the harm and pain they caused as part of recovery.
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ok… was just curious he could ‘swallow’ Kamala
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The worse thing you can do is hold the past over someone’s head when they are successfully carving out a better present and future.’
Being a Democrat is not an addiction. Trump was a Dem because his views were more closely aligned to them, he said that many times.
I think pointing out Trump’s past as a liberal Dem is important because it explains a lot of his views now.
And it certainly helps when people try to “reinvent” him.
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The polling left is pulling out all the stops. To “back up” the NY Times polling, the leftist “Bullfinch group” just released horrid numbers for Trump in the three rust belt states, but looking closer at it, it was 500 registered voters per state, and it was an “online” survey with no phone calls or even texts. So it wasn’t even a true poll.
Its one of those where anybody can do an online survey and get whatever results they want. No internals, no nothing. Its just pure propaganda, but that didn’t stop 538 from rushing out to publish these.
Lets see, based on our numbers here at the HHR, I can put out this online survey of everyone here at HHR:
Trump 91%
Harris 6%
Refused to vote: 3% (Jason)
Trump is running away with it!
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You are confusing what I am saying. I appreciate it when somebody is sober. However, that does not redeem who they were or what they did.
A few weeks ago in Philadelphia, a 30 year old pediatric oncologist was killed on her bike by a drunk driver. Unfortunately, he can’t tried for first degree murder but I hope he serves the max penalty under the law. I also hope he thinks of the children who will die because of his action. Can he be redeemed, Jan?
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nah, no media bias at all….
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
Just saw our latest internal crosstabs. And let’s just say, Kamala Harris doesn’t have the same foreign policy strength Biden did.
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Only Kamala is talking about the issues.
-free passer
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OH-13 POLL: Cygnal for @NRCC (R)
🟦 Emilia Sykes (inc): 44%
🟥 Kevin Coughlin: 40%
⬜ Undecided: 14%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 46%
🟥 GOP: 46%
—
7/28-30 | 400 LV | MoE: ±4.89%
https://nationaljournal.com/s/725895/new-poll-shows-tight-race-in-oh-13/?unlock=WU8Z5IGGCQB0V4T1
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Just looked through the questions and crosstabs of the pathetic Bullfinch group “online survey” and its obvious what’s going on with it.
So imagine you get a random email from them that says, Click here to take a 2024 presidential survey. That’s how it starts. And so leftists click the link, and it is abundantly obvious that given they can click whatever they want without having to lie to a live person on the phone, they simply replied that they are strongly conservative, but voting for Harris. Its obvious garbage. No way these numbers are reconcilable with any reality. For instance, in WI, they claim its +2 GOP for self-identify, but +4 to Biden in the 2020 election while being +9 for Harris now. Complete garbage, and anyone who puts this in an average is simply not being honest.
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Bullfinch=bull sheot.
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looking back at the records, bullfinch has been all over the map in earlier polls with Biden. One in particular in the status of Washington had TRUMP ahead 5. Complete garbage.
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Is Bullfinch interactive like the really bad Zogby polls?
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Paul, its an email that randomly goes out and people can click the link in the email if they want, and then they can pick whatever they want without talking to a live human. So studies have show people are MUCH more apt to lie with these sort of ‘surveys’ and that is exactly what I saw in the ‘results’ they published. Self-identified ‘conservatives’ voting for Harris…and surprise surprise, they voted for Biden too in 2020.
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Nobody at HHR said this.
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Pelosi: Lets drop the idea of putting Biden on Mt. Rushmore and jump right to Kamala Harris.
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
Kamala Harris just said, after 10 years of weak statements, and 3 1/2 years of REALLY WEAK ACTIONS, that she wants to get tough on the Border. Well, why hasn’t she done it, it’s almost four years too late. She’s all talk, NO ACTION! Our Country is being absolutely obliterated by her, our wonderful “Border Czar,” allowing millions of people to pour in, totally unchecked and unvetted, with large numbers of terrorists, and many others from prisons and mental institutions. Because of her, we have become a DUMPING GROUND FOR THE WORLD. KAMALA BROKE IT, I WILL FIX IT!
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David Giglio
@DavidGiglioCA
🚨NEW NATIONAL POLL🚨
National GE:
Harris 🔵: 100%
Trump 🔴: 0%
SAMPLE: 300 Million LV + 20 million illegal alien voters.
Goebbel’s institute of Public Polling
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Trump is back on Twitter.
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NT
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Bitter, cherry-picking the worst case scenario, like you did with the death of a bicyclist, is at the extreme end of the spectrum for most substance abuse individuals. But, this is how you roll when you want to make a spectacular point about most subjects, from foreign affairs and now to matters of addiction. I, for one, thru both personal and professional experience, have seen more recovery than relapse warranting redemption. I also believe there are more of those, who become sober, productive individuals, than the ones who OD or irreparably harm others because of acts committed while under the influence.
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