Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:42.0 / 55.1-13.0
Pollsters right in 2024:46.2 / 51.0-4.8

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +3216219

2026 Senate Forecast

TXMEOHMIGANHNCMN
Gap+4.5+2.0+1.4+1.4+1.4+3.6+6.2
Count5051525347464544

Trump leads in all battlegrounds

According to new polls from Emerson College:

PENNSYLVANIA Emerson
Trump48
Biden43
Six Candidates:
Trump46
Biden40
Kennedy4
West1
Stein1
Oliver0
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV
WISCONSIN Emerson
Trump48
Biden43
Six Candidates:
Trump46
Biden43
Kennedy4
West0
Stein1
Oliver1
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV
MICHIGAN Emerson
Trump45
Biden42
Six Candidates:
Trump43
Biden40
Kennedy7
West1
Stein1
Oliver0
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV
ARIZONAEmerson
Trump47
Biden40
Six Candidates:
Trump46
Biden36
Kennedy6
West1
Stein1
Oliver1
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV
GEORGIAEmerson
Trump47
Biden41
Six Candidates:
Trump44
Biden39
Kennedy6
West2
Stein1
Oliver0
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV
NEVADAEmerson
Trump46
Biden41
Six Candidates:
Trump43
Biden40
Kennedy7
West1
Stein1
Oliver1
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV
NORTH CAROLINAEmerson
Trump48
Biden41
Six Candidates:
Trump47
Biden38
Kennedy6
West1
Stein1
Oliver1
7/15-7/16; 1,000 RV

Also, a new poll showing Biden leading in California:

CALIFORNIA PPIC
Trump30
Biden55
6/24-7/2; 1,261 LV


And another new poll from Insider Advantage, this one of Florida:

FLORIDA Insider Advantage
Trump50
Biden44
Other3
7/15-16; 800 LV

And a new poll of Arizona, a Lake internal done by J. L. Partners:

ARIZONA – J.L. Partners
Trump46
Biden40
Kennedy4
Stein2
U.S. Senate:
Lake44
Gallego43
Quintana3
7/10-11; 513 LV

And the Grand Finale! Virginia from Emerson College:

VIRGINIA Emerson
Trump45
Biden43
Six Candidates:
Trump43
Biden38
Kennedy8
West2
Stein2
Oliver1
7/14-7/15; 1,000 RV

27 responses to “Trump leads in all battlegrounds”

  1. Also in VA, Emerson found Hung Cao trailing Kaine by 10: 39-49

    Like

  2. ‘It’s already disastrous’: Biden campaign fundraising takes a major hit.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/disastrous-biden-campaign-fundraising-takes-major-hit-rcna161214

    We should start a pool. When will Biden drop out of the race.

    Like

  3. at this point the pool should be does Biden drop out or does Biden resign

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  4. Don’t make Tina mad. She mocked people who thought Biden will be replaced.

    Like

  5. Why would Biden resign? Don’t see that happening. I believe after the election is over he will pardon his son.

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  6. Ask Pelosi and Schumer. They want him out now.

    Like

  7. Refresh and notice what just happened to Virginia in the battleground grid

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  8. Mocked? lol.

    Gave my thoughts. Questioned why the fear about Kampala, if she takes over?

    Like

  9. oh and these Emerson polls were NOT sponsored by “The Hill” like in the past. They were sponsored by “Democrats for Next Generation” Oof. They paid to be told they are getting hammered.

    Like

  10. If Democrats for Next Generation paid for these polls; they must of wanted these polls to be made public to push Biden out.

    Like

  11. MG, true. Will see what happens. The Virginia poll was sponsored by The Hill.

    Like

  12. Harris is the nom. Whitmier is the VP.

    Biden does not resign. Biden drops out by Monday at the latest.

    While i agree he wants to pardon Hunter, which he will do whenever he stumbles out the door, he is also worried about his crimes from when he was VP, that are not covered by immunity, all other DEMS who have dirty deeds to account for, want to defeat Trump at any cost.

    Biden is toast. Harris/Whitmier the radical pro-baby-killing ticket..the dems only issue.

    Like

  13. I believe you posted something like BL thinks Biden will be replaced. Lol.

    I will look for it.

    Like

  14. “Ask Pelosi and Schumer. They want him out now.”

    Zzzzz Bl, do you think Biden and his family care about what Pelosi and Schumer think? All they care about is money and power. Like I been saying the only reason Biden is going to quit the race is because the big dem donors are refusing to give the Biden campaign the millions they need to keep going.

    Like

  15. Hi Folks,

    I hope President Trump’s speech tonight pivots from attacking Joe Biden to attacking the entire Democrat party policy agenda. We all know, or should know, that Biden did not have a policy agenda of his own. Every single bad thing that has happened to this country in the last 3.5 years is a direct result of Biden merely implementing Obama, Pelosi, Schumer and the Squad’s agenda.

    Any thought’s on how Trump/Vance will do against Harris/Whomever? I still think that Trump/Vance will win, but I have no idea yet about size of the win.

    Like

  16. Hulk Hogan will speak at the RNC tonight.

    Whatcha gonna do when Hulkamania Runs Wild on you Brother”

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/hulk-hogan-trump-rnc-1235063157/

    Like

  17. Hey Marv, from what polling has shown Harris doesn’t do any better than Biden. And Vice Presidential candidates usually don’t more the needle in any direction.

    Like

  18. Hi Michigan Guy,

    Nice to chat with you again. It has been awhile.

    Yes, I also have seen polls showing Trump beating Harris. I don’t recall which poll, so I can’t post the link, but the poll had Trump by 10 at 47-37. Other polls show that Harris actually performs better than Biden, but loses by 2-4 points.

    Like

  19. Yep, I expect it will be a close race as far as the popular vote, but right now Trump will win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and probably Michigan along with the other obvious states giving him around 312 – 226 win.

    Like

  20. Harris doesn’t do any better, now, but with time, and there is time, not much, but there is, she can see her numbers improve. In the end, I don’t think she can improve enough to defeat Trump. But time will tell.

    Biden is likely toast. He’s not gonna make it to the finish line. Reason as follows:

    1. Money has dried up. Money drives everything.

    2. Media has given up. How many more softball interviews are needed to prove this?

    3. Congressional Dems will refuse to go down with the ship.

    4. COVID diagnosis only reinforces his vulnerability.

    5. Polling is clear. When VA has flipped red, and they are trying to force Kennedy off ballot in NY to save it, nothing more needs to be said.

    6. The Trump shooting framed against Biden’s rhetoric is a poison pill for which there is no cure. Harris can start fresh.

    7. Everyone expects it now…so if Biden digs in, it will only increase the pressure.

    Like

  21. jason was so sure Biden was going to be the nominee…

    .
    @Polymarket

    • 2024 Election Odds

    President
    🟥 Donald Trump: 66%
    🟦 Kamala Harris: 20%
    🟦 Joe Biden: 6% (new low)
    ——
    Odds of Biden dropping out

    July 13 — 33%
    July 18 — 77% (new high)
    ——
    Democratic Nominee Odds

    • Kamala Harris: 61%
    • Joe Biden: 27%
    • Other: 12%
      ——

    Like

  22. So we both agree that it is likely Biden quits. We disagree on the reason. Cream soda.

    Like

  23. DW, I agree with your recent post, with one exception. I tend to think Kamala’s numbers may decrease. She is an AWFUL campaigner who will almost certainly have several cringe worthy moments.

    Thanks for all the information today.

    Chicon

    Like

  24. New thread in 15 minutes…

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  25. General Election Poll –

    Arizona

    🔴 Trump 49% (+5)

    🔵 Biden 44%

    Nevada

    🔴 Trump 49% (+7)

    🔵 Biden 42%

    Pennsylvania

    🔴 Trump 49% (+4)

    🔵 Biden 45%

    Insider advantage #B – 800 LV – 7/16

    https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-cross-tabs-for-insideradvantage-az-nv-and-pa-july-15-16-surveys/

    Like

  26. PENNSYLVANIA

    🟥 Trump: 47% (+7)

    🟦 Harris: 40%

    🟪 Other: 8%

    NEVADA

    🟥 Trump: 50% (+10)

    🟦 Harris: 40%

    🟪 Other: 7%

    ARIZONA

    🟥 Trump: 48% (+6)

    🟦 Harris: 42%

    🟪 Other: 7%

    (2.0/3.0) | 7/15-16 | 2,400 LV

    https://insideradvantage.com/three-more-battleground-polls-trump-leads-in-pa-nv-az-no-post-shooting-bump-but-large-enthusiasm-gap-harris-trails-trump/

    Like

  27. Yep, Harris is not looking any better. LOL

    Like