According to a new poll by SurveyUSA conducted for KING-TV (Seattle), The Seattle Times, University of Washington Center for an Informed Public.
 | WASHINGTON – SurveyUSA |
| Trump | 36 |
| Biden | 50 |
| In Case of Demented Incumbent, break glass: | |
| Trump | 36 |
| Harris | 51 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
41 responses to “Biden up 15 in Washington State”
First
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So, we have a shooter named CROOKS.
and the head of the Secret Service named CHEATle.
The director or Homeland Security, Mr. SCUM, will comment shortly.
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Walt – great analysis, but I think you discount a few things that increases Trumps ceiling.
All the above could lead to lower turnout for Biden, with Trump staying in. I think he tops out at 49.5% (more than Clinton ever got).
Remember. He realistically needs 50,000 votes over four states to win the Presidency. I honestly believe, as of today, he would win the election.
November is not today though, and as we have seen, lots can happen
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COMMENTS?
Radio show I heard today.
Has a lot of merit.
They said the good news for Trump is that he has a high floor of support (43-45%). The bad news is that Trump has a low ceiling in tyhat he maxes out at about 48%.
**************************
History lesson (from the former history teacher Walt)
GO BACK TO 2016 ELECTION
Many, many R candidates in crowded field. Trump wins the primaries.
LARGELY unknown quality and no govt experience Trump (with smaller negatives) face well know Hillary Clinton (with higher negatives). Trump wins a close election.
Trump is immediately and forever HATED by a big swath of voters for denying Hillary and the first woman, etc.
FORWARD TO 2017
Trump begins presidency, has public arguments with people he himself appoints and then fires, etc.. (Unlike Reagan) abrasive Trump fails to try to work across party lines to accomplish his agenda. has big public disputes with other Rs in congress, etc.
Trump admin. is however making progress toward addressing nation’s issues including controlling southern border, etc.
Dems make gains in both House and Senate in 2018.
COVID HITS.
Lots of confusion of what to do, how to do it, etc. Trump makes goofy statements that are blown out of proportion and exaggerated and hurts him with another slice of the voting public. Trump goes more bad mouth, and slash and burn concerning any R who had difference of opinion.
The COVID crisis comes and govt response stumbles, plus the public now seeing an often surly, combative, poor speaker, Trump in action as president for 4 years and even some who in 2016 thought “I am not sure, but let’s give this guy a chance” and voted Trump then, now do not like what they have been seeing in 4 years with Trump in White House and decide they will not vote for Trump a second time in 2020.
FORWARD TO 2020 ELECTION
Dems win a very close and disputed election as they focus on NEGATIVES ABOUT TRUMP and govt response failures to COVID, and do big GOTV in key states. Mayhem follows and lots of confusion remains to fester as no real attempt is made to clear up questions regarding the conduct of the election, vote recounts, mail in ballots, etc. [which I said at the time that doing no clear, deep examination of the election results would cause major problem soon and it did …}
FORWARD TO JAN. 6, 2021
Attack on the U.S Capitol and all that came as a result of that.
……….
FORWARD TO 2024
–Big chunk of voters still hate Trump for defeating Hillary and preventing the first female president.
–Another chunk who even voted FOR Trump in 2016 say unearned my vote for 2020 duo to the failures of his admin. and saw him as NOT being a uniter but the opposite.
–Another chunk of voters has seen Jan. 6, 2021, Trumps actions and inactions then, congressional kangaroo hearings since and MSM and other Dems constantly reporting Trump tried to overthrow the government; and throw in all the “lawfare” court cases to tie up Trump that leaves a bad taste in the mouth of many voters who are determined NOT to put Trump back in White House.
When you are Trump and your CEILING is only about 48%,
THESE CHUNKS OF VOTERS MATTER.
***********************
All the above is WHY I have advocated for someone else BESIDES TRUMP to be the R standard bearer to advocate for conservative/Rep solutions to all the nation’s problems and foreign issues.
BECAUSE: when you have a debate or discussion here is how it goes:
ME: I favor Trump because he will institute policies that will end the Biden caused inflation
DEM (or Indy) DIMWIT: But Trump has all sorts of personal flaws. Orangeman bad.
___________________________
ME: I favor Trump because he will shut off the flow of illegal aliens and secure the southern border.
DEM DIMWIT: But Trump tried to overthrow the country on Jan. 6
_____________________________
ME: I favor a strong and sensible foreign policy so we do NOT have stampede withdrawals from Afghanistan, Russia encouraged to invade Ukraine, and Hamas encouraged to attack Israel.
DEM DIMWIT: But Trump is a convicted felon.
______________________________
ME: I favor Trump because he will KEEP the Trump tax cuts in place that stimulate the economy.
DEM DIMWIT: But Trump is mean spirited and a divider rather than a uniter
______________________
ME: I favor Trump and oppose Biden trying to tell Ukraine how to defend themselves and Biden slow walking need military supplies to Ukraine.
DEM DIMWIT: But Trump does not pay his taxes.
_____________________
repeat, repeat, repeat
*********************************
Dems and Biden CANNOT RUN ON ISSUES.
They CAN and WILL run (like they did in 2020) on changing the NARRATIVE from discussion of the ISSUES to instead be all about why TRUMP is NOT FIT to be president and should not get your vote.
I would say 60% (or more) of people agree with me on the ISSUES.
Sad that the majority of R primary voters did NOT vote for SOMEONE else besides TRUMP (with a CEILING of 48%) who could articulate the conservative/R position on
ALL. THE. ISSUES. and not have the narrative redirected from the issues to the R candidate.
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ohn Ocasio-Rodham Nolte
@NolteNC
So the assassin was spotted on the roof at 5:45 p.m. by a counter-sniper. This was called in. Still, the assassin was allowed to remain on the roof until 6:11 p.m. (that’s 26 minutes) and then he was allowed to take eight shots at Trump before the threat was eliminated. The threat was NOT eliminated by a counter-sniper after he brandished his rifle at a police officer. He was still given time to then fire off eight rounds at Trump. This comes after the Secret Service chose to leave that roof — a mere 130 yards away and directly in Trump’s line of sight — unguarded because (per the diversity-hire who heads the Secret Service) the roof’s slope was too dangerous. Except… The roof is not steep at all. And now we’re being told the assassin worked alone and left no social media footprint. This stinks.
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John Ocasio-Rodham Nolte
@NolteNC
3:00 — Assassin under suspicion when range finder sets off metal detector. 3:45 — counter-sniper spots assassin on roof. Radios it in. 6:02-6:04 — They still allow Trump to take the stage 6:11 — after enjoying seven minutes to set up his shot, assassin brandishes rifle at cop. Seconds later — assassin gets off 8 shots at Trump before he’s shot. THIS IS INSANE.
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Good points, Vic.
MY FEAR is that the marginal, discouraged D voters will still be rounded up and taken to the polling places (or hand over their mail in ballots) for a couple packs of cigarettes, $10, or something else of marginal value. These voters are NOT long-term thinkers. Very SHORT term, immediate thinkers.
Secondly, to keep these people from just staying home, THAT is WHY Biden and the DEM strategy is to jinn these voters up to go VOTE AGAINST TRUMP and STOP TRUMP, rather than go vote for Biden (who does not have one successful foreign or domestic achievement upon which to hang his hat).
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“The slope of the roof issue” Cheatle should be fired for that statement alone.
FIRED.
Shows she is vastly and woefully incompetent and a DEI hire.
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Vance is a marine and the grifter is an idiot.
@amuse
@amuse
Zelensky claims Trump’s VEEP doesn’t understand war. Ironically, Zelensky famously dodged the draft before he played a schoolteacher on Servant of the People who becomes President of Ukraine. JD Vance is a USMC combat veteran.
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My concern with having a D elected president is that many voter who help elect them
DO NOT REALIZE that once they get in power THEY WILL TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO INITITATE ALL SORTS OF LEFT-WING GARBAGE LIKE DEI, make LBGTW a protected class that should have a special month devoted to them, ban gas fired stoves, require everyone to drive an electric car, etc.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/tell-me-who-did-something-that-youve-never/
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Bongino is absolutely the best source right now on the assassination attempt, as he is former secret service, and is getting insider info directly from agents who are too scared to speak publicly because they would lose their jobs, and be replaced with more DEI hires.
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Survey of 1,011 Black likely voters in 7 Battleground States by
@SplitTicket_
&
@DataProgress
🟦 Biden: 76% (+59)
🟥 Trump: 17%
—
🟦 Biden: 69% (+54)
🟥 Trump: 15%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟨 West: 4%
—
🟦 Harris: 76% (+59)
🟥 Trump: 17%
Full field: Harris +57 (71-14)
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 80% (+67)
🟥 GOP: 13%
——
Fav/unfav
—
7-12-14 | AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA & WI
https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/17/we-polled-black-voters-heres-what-we-found/?amp=1
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The VP choice don’t mean squat.
The polls have been very stable for many months, in a race between two extremely well known candidates.
A felony conviction and assassination attempt for one candidate and the public exposure of dementia in the other have not moved the needle.
Chicon
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Vance is not a fucking Marine. He was a Marine Public Relations department. And he’s a traitor to America with his current ideas. He can go to hell and stay there.
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Joe Biden: Obama Asked Me to Be His Running Mate in 2020
True! He spoke more than he knew, because he’s still the #2 man for Obama who is enjoying his 3rd term where he is accomplishing all the destruction of America that he knew he couldn’t get away with in his first two terms.
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Tina and her grifter shit. I hate you, Tina.
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Retlaw: I can only hope.
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Go fuck yourself, DW.
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Same to you, Paul; you are pure f*cking garbage of a human being. It’s comical that you think you know anything about being in the military when people like you cannot fathom what personal sacrifice is, nor would volunteer themselves for it when they can instead feed at the Federal trough (for the record, I am in favor of UKR money, I just don’t want boots on the ground over there because it’s not the job of those caught up in the poverty draft to die in distant hell holes so upscale sh*twits like Paul can feel good about themselves and their silly Wilsonian ideals).
Bite me, libtard, and take your meds.
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Someone posted this on X. The good old days.
𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐍𝐂 𝐢𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 “𝐚 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭”:
In 1975, President Ford wanted to 𝐫𝐞𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐲 with a broad appeal shunning “wedge” issues by going soft on the culture war.
He called for party leaders in 1975 to 𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚 “𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲.”
Ronald Reagan thought differently. 𝐇𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭-𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲, 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐢𝐭. “A Republican Party, raising a banner of bold colors, no pale pastels,” Reagan said at the outset of his campaign against Ford. “A banner instantly recognizable as standing for certain values which will not be compromised.”
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GF: VANCE IS A FUCKING TRAITOR TO AMERICA.
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GF: We can avoid boots on the ground in Ukraine by funding Ukraine to fight there own fight. But Vance doesn’t want that. He wants America to bend over and let Putin take over Ukraine.
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From RRH:
“Its completely anecdotal, but if you spend time on Reels or TikTok, you’ll see a lot of young black men supporting Trump in almost a culture way … relating to him through his struggles with being sued, etc. I’ve seen a lot of “he’s been arrested, he’s been shot, he’s one of us.” I don’t know if that means anything (probably not) but there does seem to be a non-political almost pop cultural respect younger black men have for Trump.”
This is one of the things I predicted that might turn out true, that the shooting will help Trump with Black men.
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July 17, 2024 2:32 pm
BREAKING: New footage emerges showing the moment Secret Service took Trump to the hospital.
@GeneralMCNews
Video:
https://t.me/GeneralMCNews/9547
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Paul: I am hardly a Vance fanboy, but that’s too far. Please, and I say this kindly, go take your meds. You usually start posting like this when you miss them. Believe it or not some on here care.
Walt: As usual, great points
Tina: He got off three (3) shots, not eight (8). The remaining shots, including the one last “pop” that killed him after the first burst of shots, were all from Secret Service or police.
To All: I can assure you that neither the US, nor any NATO nation, will offer boots on the ground in Ukraine. That is the red line for a world war. Each nation knows that. It’s funny how those who oppose aid think it’s free flowing. It’s been h e double hockey sticks getting a lot of the equipment into the country when and where needed. As well, the real weaponry that would make a difference, especially air support, is near impossible to secure. You have choppers going in there that are literally surplus from African nations.
To all the isolationsists, I wish this were not the hill you were willing to…you now the phrase. We are not sending cash. No one is. It;s coming in the form of OLDDDDDD military equipment that has been either building up here and needed to be replaced, or sitting in countries, again, collecting dust. You fixate on the dollar amount.
The upshot is that if Trump is electied, he will negotiate a settlement that includes the Donbas area and continued Crimea over to the enemy, and no entry into NATO with the premise that any further incursion results in automatic NATO membership and all its benefits.
JeffP: I agree to a large degree, but that ship has sailed in 2024. The best we can do is hope that RDS can bring us back the way Reagan did in 1980 and keep the party from permanent populist policies (ever changing) with Vance.
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Good points, VictrC. I’ll go take my meds. Sorry everyone for my last few posts.
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Paul, Not a problem. It’s pretty easy to spot when you’re off them, and again, we do care.
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Biden has COVID. Betting sites will start wagering whether Jimmy Carter outlives Biden.
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and so the true great replacement begins.
COVID at 81/82 is different than for the rest of us. What a great way to have him exit for the first female President. Then Trump has to run against that…which might be the only way to make her competitive
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Zzzzzzzzz Zelensky is often at the front lines and always a target of Missiles and shells from Putin’s favorite tyrant.
Vance….isn’t.
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The grifter is an idiot
Pooty poot is no good.
option c.
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They want demented off stage, but Kampala can’t help.
schiftty has just called for demented to go and they delayed the roll call.
Pass the popcorn.
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And the calls for him to get out re accelerated post nbc interview. That was a train wreck. I am sure the free passers realize this too.
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More of Tina’s anonymous free passers.
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Zelensky is trying to keep his nation free. Tina is an angry heartless retired Federal employee addicted to conspiracy sites. Both can be true.
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Be Careful What you Wish for: Part Deux:
Remember when we all (paraphrasing) wanted Obama instead of Clinton. What a disaster that turned out to be. Who would have thought Clinton was the better option.
Now here we are again. Biden is, and now this has to be obvious, most likely going to be forced…I mean, I mean…regretfully resign due to health concerns, leaving us with….President Kamala Harris.
Where as VP Harris would have been a delight to get in a race with, the first female President of the United States will be much harder to defeat. All those suburban pro-abortion Moms who were now on the fence after the debate, will climb through nails to get Harris re-elected. Black women, who were disillusioned by Biden…first Black Female President. Nails and glass and barbed wire, they would climb over.
I hope I am wrong, but…another horrible interview. Vote by DNC delayed to nominate Biden…COVID (which of course makes him the martyr against the guy who was escorted offstage after “popping sounds”…(which is exactly how the media will portray it going forward). Harris will protect us from Project 2025.
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Peter Navarro’s entrance at the RNC Convention brought the house down. The most applause in 3 days except for Trump, and perhaps Vance. Giving a feisty speech.
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Demented got off air force one without a mask, per Cn and n.
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Biden is said to only have “mild symptoms.” Kamala should not begin to measure the WH drapes yet, nor should Vic.
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NT
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